Position on H.R. 8656 – Modernizing Wildfire Safety and Prevention Act

The Federation of American Scientists strongly supports H.R. 8656.

The Modernizing Wildfire Safety and Prevention Act would combat firefighter shortages by establishing a new Middle Fire Leaders Academy and grant programs to train and hire more firefighters and retain expert wildland firefighters with increased benefits and better working conditions. The bill would establish the Joint Office of the Fire Environment Center to improve fire response time with updated technology like developing risk maps and establishing. Lastly, it would address the public health crisis caused by wildfire smoke by establishing a nationwide real-time air quality monitoring and alert system.

“As the wildfire crisis continues to grow in size and severity, our solutions must be ambitious to meet the moment. The Wildland Fire Mitigation and Management Commission developed 148 non-partisan policy recommendations to tackle this crisis and the Modernizing Wildfire Safety and Prevention Act is a bold and bipartisan package that incorporates a number of the Commission’s recommendations.” said Daniel Correa, Chief Executive Officer of the Federation of American Scientists. “Rep. Harder, Rep. Franklin and Rep. Neguse have put forth a multi-pronged innovative approach to tackle the wildfire crisis. In particular, the creation of the Fire Environment Center is a game changer for land and fuels management, community risk reduction, fire management and response.”

For more information contact James Campbell, Wildfire Policy Specialist, at jcampbell@fas.org.

Position on H.R. 9702, H.R. 9703, and H.R. 9704.

The Federation of American Scientists supports H.R. 9702 the Wildfire Coordination Act, H.R. 9703 the Cross Boundary Wildfire Solutions Act, and H.R. 9704 the Wildfire Risk Evaluation Act.

This package of bills is derived from recommendations in the Wildland Fire Mitigation and Management Commission’s report to Congress and would implement recommendations 24, 110, 116, 135, and 148.

“This package of bills would improve the effectiveness and efficiency of wildfire mitigation, establish an advisory board responsible for coordinating federal wildfire research, and require a comprehensive review of the wildfire landscape in the United States every four years,” said James Campbell, Wildfire Policy Specialist at the Federation of American Scientists. “This package of bills hits on a number of key areas that are critical to supporting increased collaboration across federal agencies and confronting the wildfire crisis head-on.”

For more information contact James Campbell, Wildfire Policy Specialist, at jcampbell@fas.org.

Federation of American Scientists among leading voices for federal policy action at White House Summit on Extreme Heat

Summit comes on heels of record 2024 summer heat; convenes experts on strategies to address this nationwide threat

Washington, D.C. – September 13, 2024 – The Federation of American Scientists (FAS), the non-partisan, nonprofit science think tank dedicated to deploying evidence-based policies to address national threats, is today participating in the White House Summit on Extreme Heat.

This Summit, announced by President Biden earlier this summer, will bring together local, state, Tribal, and territorial leaders and practitioners to discuss how to drive further locally-tailored and community-driven actions to address extreme heat. FAS has been a leading voice for action on this topic, and has developed a compendium of 150+ heat-related federal policy recommendations.

FAS will be represented by Hannah Safford, Associate Director of Climate and Environment, and Grace Wickerson, Health Equity Policy Manager.

“Extreme heat is affecting every corner of our nation, making it more difficult and dangerous for Americans to live, work, and play,” says Wickerson. “Heat-related deaths and illnesses are on the rise, especially among our most vulnerable populations. We must work together to tackle this public health crisis.”

“It’s September, and millions of Americans are still suffering in triple-digit temperatures,” adds Safford. “We applaud the Biden-Harris Administration for drawing attention to the increasing challenges of extreme heat, and for driving on action to build a more heat-resilient nation in 2025 and beyond.”

FAS’s Ongoing Work to Address Extreme Heat

To date FAS has fostered extensive policy innovation related to extreme heat:

Our Extreme Heat Policy Sprint engaged more than 85 experts and generated heat-related policy recommendations for 34 federal offices and agencies.
This work is comprehensively summarized in our Whole-of-Government Strategy To Address Extreme Heat, and our associated library of heat policy memos.
FAS has delivered expert briefings on extreme heat to the White House and federal agencies. Our policy solutions have informed Senate appropriations requests, proposed legislation, and Congressional Research Service reports.

FAS Workshops Will Harness Momentum From White House Summit

Immediately following the White House Heat Summit, FAS will collaborate with the Arizona State University (ASU) Knowledge Exchange for Resilience to host the Celebration for Resilience 2024 Symposium and Gala on September 19th in Tempe.

On Friday, September 20th, FAS will partner with Arizona State University (ASU) to host workshops in Tempe, AZ, Washington DC, and virtually on Defining the 2025 Heat Policy Agenda. This workshop will harness momentum from the White House Summit on Extreme Heat, providing a forum to discuss actions that the next Administration and new Congress should prioritize to tackle extreme heat. For more information and to participate, contact Grace Wickerson (gwickerson@fas.org).

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ABOUT FAS

The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) works to advance progress on a broad suite of contemporary issues where science, technology, and innovation policy can deliver dramatic progress, and seeks to ensure that scientific and technical expertise have a seat at the policymaking table. Established in 1945 by scientists in response to the atomic bomb, FAS continues to work on behalf of a safer, more equitable, and more peaceful world. More information at fas.org.

Three Artificial Intelligence Bills Endorsed by Federation of American Scientists Advance from the House Committee

Proposed bills advance research ecosystems, economic development, and education access and move now to the U.S. House of Representatives for a vote

Washington, D.C. – September 12, 2024 – Three proposed artificial intelligence bills endorsed by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), a nonpartisan science think tank, advance forward from a House Science, Space, and Technology Committee markup held on September 11th, 2024. These bills received bipartisan support and will now be reported to the full chamber. The three bills are: H.R. 9403, the Expanding AI Voices Act, co-sponsored by Rep. Vince Fong (CA-20) and Rep. Andrea Salinas (OR-06); H.R. 9197, the Small Business AI Act, co-sponsored by Rep. Mike Collins (GA-10) and Rep. Haley Stevens (MI-11), and H.R. 9403, the Expand AI Act, co-sponsored by Rep. Valerie Foushee (NC-04) and Rep. Frank Lucas (OK-03).

“FAS endorsed these bills based on the evaluation of their strengths. Among these are the development of infrastructure to develop AI safely and responsibly; the deployment of resources to ensure development benefits more equitably across our economy; and investment in the talent pool necessary for this consequential, emerging technology,” says Dan Correa, CEO of FAS.

“These three bills pave a vision for the equitable and safe use of AI in the U.S. Both the Expanding AI Voices Act and the NSF AI Education Act will create opportunities for underrepresented voices to have a say in how AI is developed and deployed. Additionally, the Small Business AI Act will ensure that an important sector of our society feels empowered to use AI safely and securely,” says Clara Langevin, FAS AI Policy Specialist.

Expanding AI Voices Act

The Expanding AI Voices Act will support a broad and diverse interdisciplinary research community for the advancement of artificial intelligence and AI-powered innovation through partnerships and capacity building at certain institutions of higher education to expand AI capacity in populations historically underrepresented in STEM.

Specifically, the Expanding AI Voices Act of 2024 will:

Codify and expand the ExpandAI program at the National Science Foundation (NSF), which supports artificial intelligence (AI) capacity-building projects for eligible entities including Minority Serving Institutions (MSIs), Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs), and Tribal Colleges and Universities (TCUs).
Broaden the ExpandAI program in scope and types of activities it supports to further build and enhance partnerships between eligible entities and awardees of the National AI Research Institutes ecosystem to broaden AI research and development.
Direct the National Science Foundation to engage in outreach to increase their pool of applications and address common barriers preventing these organizations from submitting an application.

Small Business AI Act

Emerging science is central to new and established small businesses, across industries and around the country. This bill will require the Director of the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) to develop resources for small businesses in utilizing artificial intelligence, and for other purposes.

This bill amends the NIST Organic Act, as amended by the National AI Initiative Act, and directs NIST, in coordination with the Small Business Administration, to consider the needs of America’s small businesses and develop AI resources for best practices, case studies, benchmarks, methodologies, procedures, and processes for small businesses to understand, apply, and integrate AI systems.
It will connect Small Businesses with existing Federal educational resources, such as the risk management framework and activities from the national cybersecurity awareness and education program under the Cybersecurity Enhancement Act of 2014.
This bill aligns with FAS’s mission to broaden AI use and access as a catalyst for economic development.

National Science Foundation Artificial Intelligence Education Act of 2024 (NSF AI Education Act).

The National Artificial Intelligence Initiative Act of 2020 (15 U.S.C. 9451) will bolster educational skills in AI through new learning initiatives and workforce training programs. Specifically, the bill will:

Allow NSF to award AI scholarships in critical sectors such as education, agriculture and advanced manufacturing.
Authorize the NSF to conduct outreach and encourage applications from rural institutions, Tribal Colleges and Universities, and institutions located in Established Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR) jurisdictions to promote research competitiveness.
Award fellowships for teachers, school counselors, and other school professionals for professional development programs, providing skills and training in collaboration with industry partners on the teaching and application of artificial intelligence in K-12 settings
This bill aligns with FAS’s commitment to STEM education and equity as powerful levers for our nation to compete on the global stage.

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ABOUT FAS

FAS Receives $1.5 Million Grant on The Artificial Intelligence / Global Risk Nexus

Grant Funds Research of AI’s Impact on Nuclear Weapons, Biosecurity, Military Autonomy, Cyber, and other global issues

Washington, D.C. – September 11, 2024 – The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) has received a $1.5 million grant from the Future of Life Institute (FLI) to investigate the implications of artificial intelligence on global risk. The 18-month project supports FAS’s efforts to bring together the world’s leading security and technology experts to better understand and inform policy on the nexus between AI and several global issues, including nuclear deterrence and security, bioengineering, autonomy and lethality, and cyber security-related issues.

FAS’s CEO Daniel Correa noted that “understanding and responding to how new technology will change the world is why the Federation of American Scientists was founded. Against this backdrop, FAS has embarked on a critical journey to explore AI’s potential. Our goal is not just to understand these risks, but to ensure that as AI technology advances, humanity’s ability to understand and manage the potential of this technology advances as well.

“When the inventors of the atomic bomb looked at the world they helped create, they understood that without scientific expertise and brought her perspectives humanity would never live the potential benefits they had helped bring about. They founded FAS to ensure the voice of objective science was at the policy table, and we remain committed to that effort after almost 80 years.”

“We’re excited to partner with FLI on this essential work,” said Jon Wolfsthal, who directs FAS’ Global Risk Program. “AI is changing the world. Understanding this technology and how humans interact with it will affect the pressing global issues that will determine the fate of all humanity. Our work will help policy makers better understand these complex relationships. No one fully understands what AI will do for us or to us, but having all perspectives in the room and working to protect against negative outcomes and maximizing positive ones is how good policy starts.”

“As the power of AI systems continues to grow unchecked, so too does the risk of devastating misuse and accidents,” writes FLI President Max Tegmark. “Understanding the evolution of different global threats in the context of AI’s dizzying development is instrumental to our continued security, and we are honored to support FAS in this vital work.”

The project will include a series of activities, including high-level focused workshops with world-leading experts and officials on different aspects of artificial intelligence and global risk, policy sprints and fellows, and directed research, and conclude with a global summit on global risk and AI in Washington in 2026.

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ABOUT FAS

ABOUT FLI

Founded in 2014, the Future of Life Institute (FLI) is a leading nonprofit working to steer transformative technology towards benefiting humanity. FLI is best known for their 2023 open letter calling for a six-month pause on advanced AI development, endorsed by experts such as Yoshua Bengio and Stuart Russell, as well as their work on the Asilomar AI Principles and recent EU AI Act.

Federation of American Scientists Releases Latest India Edition of Nuclear Notebook

Washington, D.C. – September 6, 2024 – The Federation of American Scientists today released the latest India edition of the Nuclear Notebook, published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and available here. The authors, Hans Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns, and Mackenzie Knight, estimate that India has produced enough weapons-grade plutonium for up to 210 nuclear warheads but has likely assembled closer to 172. Along with its growing arsenal, India is developing at least five new weapon systems and several new delivery platforms. Seeking to address security concerns with both Pakistan and China, India appears to be taking steps to increase the readiness of its arsenal, including “pre-mating” some of its warheads with missiles in canisters.

SSBNs and MIRVs

This Nuclear Notebook provides an overview of India’s nuclear modernization, documenting the development of new land and sea-based missiles, the retirement of older nuclear-capable systems, and the commissioning of India’s second indigenous nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN). The authors also analyze India’s significant progress in developing its next generation of land-based missiles with the capability to launch multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs).

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ABOUT THE NUCLEAR NOTEBOOK

The FAS Nuclear Notebook, co-authored by Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns, and Mackenzie Knight, is published bi-monthly in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The joint publication began in 1987. FAS, formed in 1945 by the scientists who developed the nuclear weapon, has worked since to increase nuclear transparency, reduce nuclear risks, and advocate for responsible reductions of nuclear arsenals and the role of nuclear weapons in national security.

This latest issue follows the release of the 2024 North Korea Nuclear Notebook. The next issue will focus on the United Kingdom. More research is located at FAS’s Nuclear Information Project.

The Federation of American Scientists’ work on nuclear transparency would not be possible without generous support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, Longview Philanthropy, the Jubitz Foundation, the New-Land Foundation, Ploughshares, the Prospect Hill Foundation, and individual donors.

ABOUT FAS

The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) Voluntarily Recognizes First Employee Union in Organization’s Nearly 80 Year History

Federation of American Scientists (FAS) and the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) are proud to announce our partnership in forming the first employee union in FAS’ nearly 80 year history. We are excited to engage in a productive and collaborative partnership with IAM, with the goal of fostering a positive and mutually beneficial working environment for all FAS employees. “This is cause for celebration. We proudly recognize our colleagues’ desire to have a seat at the table for decisions about issues that affect all of us and we look forward to building a future together,” notes FAS CEO, Dan Correa.

FAS takes quite seriously our role as a beacon and voice for the science community and are seizing this opportunity to forge a more inclusive future for the organization and model what can be unlocked when everyone has a seat at the table. After the devastating bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, a group of atomic researchers – deeply concerned about the use of science for malice – created an organization committed to using science and technology to benefit humanity. The group they created – the Federation of Atomic Scientists – soon became the Federation of American Scientists in recognition of the hundreds of scientists across diverse disciplines who joined together to speak with one voice for the betterment of the world.

FAS is excited to honor our legacy and put into practice the shared values we espouse – not just equity, inclusion and transparency, but our vision of an organization that is impact-driven, customer-focused, entrepreneurial, and growth-oriented as a force for good.

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ABOUT FAS

With nearly 600,000 active and retired members, the IAM is one of the largest and most diverse labor unions in North America. From Boeing and Lockheed Martin to United Airlines and Harley-Davidson, you will find IAM members across all walks of life. IAM members demand respect and dignity in the workplace. Together, we have been able to bargain for increased job security, higher wages and improved benefits.

The IAM is here to help you secure a voice on the job. Join the IAM today!

Federation of American Scientists (FAS) Celebrates 2nd Anniversary of the Inflation Reduction Act

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is the largest climate investment in history. FAS scientists offer policy ideas to maximize the impacts of this investment on U.S. competitiveness, energy security, resilience, and more.

Washington, D.C. – August 16, 2024 – The Federation of American Scientists (FAS), the non-partisan, nonprofit science think tank dedicated to using evidence-based science for the public good, is celebrating the two-year anniversary of the signing of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) by sharing policy ideas to drive continued successful implementation of this landmark legislation.

The IRA is a United States federal law which aims to reduce the federal government budget deficit, lower prescription drug prices, and invest in domestic energy production while promoting clean energy. It was passed by the 117th United States Congress and it was signed into law by President Biden on August 16, 2022. The IRA has catalyzed $265 billion in new clean energy investments and created hundreds of thousands of jobs in the United States, putting us on a path to achieving climate goals while boosting the economy.

“In just two years, the Inflation Reduction Act has driven down costs of energy and transportation for everyday Americans while reining in catastrophic climate change” says Hannah Safford, Associate Director of Climate and Environment. “This legislation proves that when we invest in a better future, everyone wins.”

“The IRA enables the country to move toward ambitious climate goals. We already see the effects with new policy proposal ideas that could supercharge pursuit of these goals,” says Kelly Fleming, Associate Director of Clean Energy. “The Department of Energy finds that with the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, we can double the share of clean electricity generation to 80% in 2030.”

FAS, one of the country’s oldest science policy organizations, works with scientists and technologists to propose policy-ready ideas to address current and emerging threats, including climate change and energy insecurity.

On today’s two-year anniversary of the IRA, FAS is highlighting policy proposals that build on the IRA’s successes to date and suggest opportunities for continued impact. Examples include:

Geothermal

Geothermal technologies became eligible for tax credits under IRA.

Breaking Ground on Next-Generation Geothermal Energy The Department of Energy (DOE) could take a number of different approaches to accelerating progress in next-generation geothermal energy, from leasing agency land for project development to providing milestone payments for the costly drilling phases of development.

Low-Carbon Cement

The IRA provides $4.5B to support government procurement of low-carbon versions of this cornerstone material.

Laying the Foundation for the Low-Carbon Cement and Concrete Industry Cement and concrete production is one of the hardest industries to decarbonize. Using its Other Transactions Authority, DOE could design a demand-support program involving double-sided auctions, contracts for difference, or price and volume.

Critical Minerals and Energy Manufacturing

Supply chains necessary for battery technologies are being built out in the U.S. thanks to IRA incentives. The new Manufacturing and Energy Supply Chain Office (MESC) has implemented and unveiled programs to retool existing facilities for EV manufacturing, and rehire existing work, and provide tax incentives for clean energy manufacturing facilities with funding provided in the IRA. The office supports the development and deployment of a domestic clean energy supply chain, including for critical minerals needed for batteries and other advanced technologies.

Critical Thinking on Critical Minerals: How the U.S. Government Can Support the Development of Domestic Production Capacity for the Battery Supply Chain Batteries for electric vehicles, in particular, will require the U.S. to consume an order of magnitude more lithium, nickel, cobalt, and graphite than it currently consumes.

Nature Based Solutions

Billions of dollars have been invested into nature based solutions, including $1 billion in urban forestry, that will make communities more resilient to climate change.

A National Framework For Sustainable Urban Forestry To Combat Extreme Heat. To realize the full benefits of the federal government’s investment in urban forestry, there will need to be a coordinated, equity-focused, and economically validated federal plan to guide the development and maintenance of urban forestry that will allow the full utilization of this critical resource.

Submit Your Science and Technology Policy Ideas

The IRA is one lever to make real-world change; good ideas can come from anyone, including you.

FAS is soliciting federal policy ideas to present to the next U.S. presidential administration through the Day One 2025 project, which closes soon. Interested parties can submit science and technology related policy ideas year-round at FAS’s Day One website page.

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ABOUT FAS

Federation of American Scientists Joins in Support of Authorizing the US Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute (AISI) within the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)

With Americans for Responsible Innovation (ARI) and the Information Technology Industry Council (ITI), a letter signed by 50 groups is presented to the US Senate Commerce Committee

Washington, D.C. – July 29, 2024 – The Federation of American Scientists, along with other organizations focused on a wide range of AI policy goals, submitted a letter of support to the U.S. Senate Commerce Committee to authorize the U.S. Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute (AISI) within the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST).

As the letter states:

Establishing the AISI on a statutory basis will ensure that companies of all sizes – as well as other interested parties – continue to have a voice in the development of relevant standards and guidelines. This will accelerate the widespread adoption of AI and further ensure the US continues to lead the world in the development of AI standards.

Currently, businesses of all types recognize the potential of AI, but many have refrained from adoption, in part due to concerns regarding implementation risks. The AISI provides a venue to convene the leading experts across industry and government to contribute to the development of voluntary standards that ultimately assist in de-risking adoption of AI technologies.

FAS agrees that the mission of NIST AISI to advance responsible innovation of AI systems is an urgent priority that deserves our full support.

Safety, Trust, Adoption, and Innovation

The AISI is particularly important for those enterprises not primarily engaged in technological activities and which do not possess the wherewithal to develop bespoke benchmarks and protocols to assess AI systems. NIST, which does not possess regulatory authority and has a long history of successfully engaging the private sector, accomplishes this within the AI space primarily through the AISI Consortium (AISIC).

Launched in February 2024, the AISIC consists of over 200 leading organizations – including FAS – from industry, trade groups, government, civil society and more, working together to share knowledge and “develop science-based and empirically backed guidelines and standards for AI measurement and policy.”

The letter was delivered to Chair Cantwell, Ranking Member Cruz, Chairman Lucas, and Ranking Member Lofgren.

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ABOUT FAS

Statement on Unionization Effort

The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) takes its role as a beacon and voice of the scientific community very seriously. We strive for a world that is both more inclusive and informed by science, and are committed to the idea that the path to that world starts by modeling it within our organization. Recently, FAS was asked to voluntarily recognize a union. The principles of transparency and inclusion to which the organizers appeal are values that resonate with both our organization’s leadership and our board of directors.

We respect that our employees have a broad range of opinions, and we believe that our decision not only affects our staff but also the scientific community we represent. To that end, our response to this effort is a significant organizational decision, and one that requires a thoughtful response as we seek to understand the full ramifications for our team, organization and work. Even though the organizers requested a response by July 17, we intend to take the full measure of time that the law allows us for this decision and plan to respond by July 24. We look forward to using the coming days to explore this decision, as we seek to align on the best path forward for this organization and our incredible team.

North Korean Nuclear Weapons, 2024: Federation of American Scientists Release Latest North Korea Nuclear Weapons Estimate

North Korea continues to modernize and grow its nuclear weapons arsenal

Washington, D.C. – July 15, 2024 – The Federation of American Scientists today released the North Korea edition of the Nuclear Notebook, published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and available here. The authors, Hans Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns, and Mackenzie Knight, estimate that North Korea may have produced enough fissile material to build up to 90 nuclear warheads, but the famously opaque country has likely assembled fewer than that—potentially around 50. This is not a significant change from previous estimates (2021, 2022) but follows the trendline researchers are tracking. North Korea’s abandonment of a no-first-use policy coincides with the country’s recent efforts to develop tactical nuclear weapons.

Warhead Preparation and Delivery

While its status remains unclear, North Korea has developed a highly diverse missile force in all major range categories. In this edition of the Nuclear Notebook, FAS researchers documented North Korea’s short-range tactical missiles, sea-based missiles, and new launch platforms such as silo-based and underwater platforms Additionally, FAS researchers provided an overview of North Korea’s advancements in solid-fuel missile technology, which will improve the survivability and mobility of its missile force.

“Since 2006, North Korea has detonated six nuclear devices, updated its nuclear doctrine to reflect the irreversible role of nuclear weapons for its national security, and continued to introduce a variety of new missiles test-flown from new launch platforms,” says Hans Kristensen, director of FAS’s Nuclear Information Project.

The size and composition of North Korea’s nuclear stockpile depends on warhead design and the number and types of launchers that can deliver them.

Disco Balls, Peanuts, and Olives

Researchers informally refer to North Korea’s nuclear warhead designs as the disco ball, peanut, and olive based on their appearance in North Korean state media. These images, taken from this recent issue of the North Korea Nuclear Notebook, show supposed warhead designs, including a single-stage implosion device (nicknamed “disco-ball”), a new miniaturized warhead called the Hwasan-31 (nicknamed “olive”), and a two-stage thermonuclear warhead (nicknamed “peanut”).

Caption: Images from the Nuclear Notebook: North Korea, 2024. Top left “disco ball”, top right “olive”, bottom left “peanut”. (Source: Federation of American Scientists).

While North Korea’s warhead design and stockpile makeup are not verifiable, it is possible that most weapons are single-stage fission weapons with yields between 10 and 20 kilotons of TNT equivalent, akin to those demonstrated in the 2013 and 2016 tests. A smaller number could be composite-core single-stage warheads with a higher yield.

The Hwasan-31, first showcased in 2023, demonstrates North Korea’s progress towards developing and fielding short-range, or tactical, nuclear weapons. In addition to the development and demonstration of new long-range strategic nuclear-capable missiles, the pursuit of tactical nuclear weapons appears intended to provide options for nuclear use below the strategic level and to strengthen North Korea’s regional deterrence posture.

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ABOUT THE NUCLEAR NOTEBOOK

This latest issue follows the release of the 2024 United States Nuclear Notebook. The next issue will focus on India. More research is located at FAS’s Nuclear Information Project.

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Nuclear Experts from the Federation of American Scientists Call for More Transparency from the Defense Department with Its Decision to Certify the Sentinel ICBM Program

The Air Force’s flawed assumptions, processes, and estimation methodologies have led to unprecedented cost overruns

Washington, D.C. – July 9, 2024 – The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) stands with fellow scientists and peer organizations critiquing the Biden administration’s decision to certify the Sentinel ICBM program, despite it being 81% over budget and two to three years behind schedule. This program does not improve American safety or global peace efforts, and is an unnecessary financial burden on taxpayers.

The Pentagon’s review of the Sentinel came after the projected cost of the project rose by 37 percent, to $131 billion––requiring a re-evaluation of the program and a consideration of possible alternatives under the Nunn-McCurdy Act. Recent reporting from Bloomberg indicates that the Sentinel’s costs are now estimated to rise to $141 billion. This represents an 81 percent increase from the Pentagon’s own estimate in 2020.

“You can be for nuclear weapons modernization and think this program is both in trouble and needs a serious re-examination. At 81% over budget and $140 billion and climbing, we owe it to consider real alternatives and get modernization right,” says Jon Wolfsthal, Director of Global Risk at FAS.

In its justification decision, the Pentagon suggested that the Nunn-McCurdy review team considered “‘four to five different options,’ including extending the aging Minuteman III missiles in 2070, ‘hybrid options of different ground facilities, mobile versus fixed,’ and others.” However, the Pentagon’s stated justifications for continuing the program, its timelines, and its funding are all questioned by the FAS team.

Associate Director for FAS’ Nuclear Information Project, Matt Korda, asks: “Where does the year 2070 come from? The Air Force previously referred to the year 2075 in its program documentation, and as far as I know, neither year is codified in any official policy documents like the National Defense Strategy or the Nuclear Posture Review. Yet these benchmarks have enormous bearing on cost estimates, and can be purposely selected to tip the scales and make some options look more palatable than others.” Korda wrote a detailed report in 2021 showing how changes in these cost benchmarks would have indicated that alternatives to the Sentinel––such as life-extending the current fleet of Minuteman III ICBMs––would very likely have been cheaper than building an entirely brand-new weapon system.

Director of FAS’s Nuclear Information Project, Hans Kristensen, is more pointed in his criticism: “Despite massively escalating cost projection, having sold the new Sentinel ICBM program to Congress based on unrealistic cost, the Pentagon says go ahead anyway.”

Kristensen and Korda are leading researchers on the global stockpile of nuclear weapons. Along with their colleagues, Senior Research Associates Eliana Johns and Mackenzie Knight, they produce and distribute, in conjunction with the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the Nuclear Notebook, detailed reports on the status of nuclear weapons worldwide.

Knight was among the first to identify Sentinel’s extreme cost overruns and raise public awareness of this issue. In March she wrote what should happen next:

Secretary Austin’s likely certification of the Sentinel program should be open to public interrogation, and Congress must thoroughly examine whether every requirement is met before allowing the program to continue. Congress should ask the Government Accountability Office and Congressional Budget Office to conduct independent reviews to interrogate the Pentagon’s justification for Sentinel and ensure hawk-eyed scrutiny of the program’s next steps.

The Hill, March 1, 2024

She adds now: “The Sentinel program being allowed to continue despite an 81% cost increase sets a dangerous precedent. Whether the program is flawed, necessary, or not, Congress and the administration should not allow ostensibly limitless spending on nuclear weapons programs. How much is too much?”

More than 700 scientists, including ten Nobel laureates and 23 members of the National Academies, have signed a letter calling for President Biden and Congress to cancel the program, led by the Union of Concerned Scientists.

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