Publication Archive

Back
Global Risk
Blog
New START Data Show Russian Increase, US Decrease Of Deployed Warheads

By Hans M. Kristensen The latest aggregate data released by the US State Department for the New START treaty show that Russia has increased its counted deployed strategic nuclear forces over the past six months. The data show that Russia increased its deployed launchers by 25 from 473 to 498, and the warheads attributed to […]

04.01.14 | 2 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
B61-12 Nuclear Bomb Integration On NATO Aircraft To Start In 2015

By Hans M. Kristensen The US Air Force budget request for Fiscal Year 2015 shows that integration of the B61-12 on NATO F-16 and Tornado aircraft will start in 2015 for completion in 2017 and 2018. The integration marks the beginning of a significant enhancement of the military capability of NATO’s nuclear posture in Europe […]

03.13.14 | 3 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
NATO Nuclear Weapons Security Costs Expected to Double

By Hans M. Kristensen The cost of securing U.S. non-strategic nuclear weapons deployed in Europe is expected to nearly double to meet increased U.S. security standards, according to the Pentagon’s FY2015 budget request. According to the Department of Defense NATO Security Investment Program , NATO has invested over $80 Million since 2000 to secure nuclear […]

03.11.14 | 2 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
Ukraine: The Value of Risk Analysis in Foreseeing Crises

The quantitative risk analysis approach to nuclear deterrence not only allows a more objective estimate of how much risk we face, but also highlights otherwise unforeseen ways to reduce that risk. The current crisis in Ukraine provides a good example. Last Fall, I met Daniel Altman, a Ph.D. candidate at MIT, who is visiting Stanford’s Center for International […]

03.03.14 | 6 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
B61-12: First Pictures Show New Military Capability

By Hans M. Kristensen The U.S. government has published the first images of the Air Force’s new B61-12 nuclear bomb. The images for the first time show the new guided tail kit that will provide new military capabilities in violation of the Nuclear Posture Review. The tail kit will increase the accuracy of the bomb […]

02.28.14 | 4 min read
read more
Global Risk
Report
A Conversation with Nobel Laureate Dr. Jack Steinberger

On January 27, 2014, I had the privilege and pleasure of meeting with Dr. Jack Steinberger at CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research, in Geneva, Switzerland. In a wide-ranging conversation, we discussed nuclear disarmament, nonproliferation, particle physics, great scientific achievements, and solar thermal power plants. Here, I give a summary of the discussion with Dr. Steinberger, a […]

02.25.14 | 5 min read
read more
Global Risk
Report
Prospects for a Middle East Regional Safeguards Organization

Recent efforts to convene a conference on a Middle East zone free of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) have stalled, reflecting the political difficulties in working towards that goal in the region. Pursuing a regional safeguards organization for nuclear energy programs in the Middle East could be an easier diplomatic and strategic alternative, given the […]

02.25.14 | 17 min read
read more
Global Risk
Report
50 Years Later “Dr. Strangelove” Remains a Must-See Film and Humorous Reminder of Our Civilization’s Fragility

Fifty years ago on January 30th, “Dr. Strangelove: Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying And Love the Bomb,” a seminal political-military satire and dark comedic film premiered. Based on Peter George’s novel Red Alert, the film gave us some of the most outrageously humorous and simultaneously satirical dialog in the history of the silver screen. […]

02.25.14 | 10 min read
read more
Global Risk
Report
Hedging and Strategic Stability

The concept of strategic stability emerged during the Cold War, but today it is still unclear what the term exactly means and how its different interpretations influence strategic decisions. After the late 1950s, the Cold War superpowers based many of their arguments and decisions on their own understanding of strategic stability1 and it still seems to […]

02.25.14 | 12 min read
read more
Global Risk
Report
President’s Message: Legitimizing Iran’s Nuclear Program

Be careful of self-fulfilling prophecies about the intentions for Iran’s nuclear program. Often, Western analysts view this program through the lens of realist political science theory such that Iranian leaders seek nuclear weapons to counteract threats made to overthrow their regime or to exert dominance in the Middle East. To lend support to the former […]

02.25.14 | 9 min read
read more
Global Risk
Report
A Citizen Approach to Nonproliferation

How can citizens of the world work to make the world safer using technology and crowdsourcing? Citizen Sensor aims to bring people together from all around the world to use the power of the web and crowdsourcing to have a profound impact on nonproliferation and international safeguards.

02.25.14 | 8 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
Saving Money and Saving the World

As the United States struggles to deal with budget problems, as the U.S. Air Force deals with boredom, poor morale, drug use, and cheating on certification exams by their personnel entrusted with control of nuclear missiles, we have a solution that will save money as well as make the world a much safer place – […]

02.03.14 | 1 min read
read more