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Air Force Briefing Shows Nuclear Modernizations But Ignores US and UK Programs

By Hans M. Kristensen China and North Korea are developing nuclear-capable cruise missiles, according to U.S. Air Force Global Strike Command (AFGSC). The new Chinese and North Korean systems appear on a slide in a Command Briefing that shows nuclear modernizations in eight of the world’s nine nuclear weapons states (Israel is not shown). The […]

05.29.13 | 10 min read
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Global Risk
Blog
War with Iran? Revisiting the Potentially Staggering Costs to the Global Economy

The Senate passage of Resolution 65 on May 22, 2013, some argue, draws the United States closer to military action against Iran. In October 2012, amid concerns that surprisingly little research addressed the potential broad outcomes of possible U.S.-led actions against Iran, researchers at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) assembled nine renowned subject matter […]

05.23.13 | 3 min read
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Global Risk
Report
Reflecting on NATO Security in the Context of a Rising China

The future promises to be far more challenging than the past for international security analysts. The security challenges that we will face will be increasingly complex, transnational, and interrelated. This will make their mitigation all the more difficult. But, the reality of this changing security landscape should not cause us to give pause and adopt […]

05.21.13 | 6 min read
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Global Risk
Report
Building an Effective Nonproliferation Program: U.S. Support of IAEA Safeguards

A central pillar of international efforts to stem the spread of nuclear weapons is the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards system. From the inception of the IAEA, the United States has supported the development and evolution of both the safeguards system itself and devices and systems approaches used by inspectors.

05.21.13 | 14 min read
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Global Risk
Report
President’s Message: Complexity Overload and Extreme Events

To paraphrase Leon Trotsky’s saying about war but applied to extreme events, “You may not be interested in extreme events, but extreme events are interested in you.” The “you” here refers to the general public. I trust that readers of the Public Interest Report have self-selected themselves to be concerned about extreme events such as nuclear war, […]

05.21.13 | 6 min read
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Global Risk
Report
Digital Manufacturing and Missile Proliferation

Digital manufacturing is likely to be one of the key disruptive technologies of the 21st century. Described by The Economist as the foundation of a third industrial revolution, 1 digital manufacturing enables individuals and communities of designers to manufacture products themselves rather than relying on large factories with global supply chains. While digital manufacturing holds […]

05.21.13 | 11 min read
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Global Risk
Blog
Chinese Nuclear Developments Described (and Omitted) by DOD Report

By Hans M. Kristensen Going, going, gone! In its latest annual report to Congress on the military and security developments of the People’s Republic of China, the Pentagon has removed the last public authoritative overview of Chinese nuclear forces. Until 2010, the annual reports included a table with a detailed breakdown of the different types […]

05.14.13 | 7 min read
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Global Risk
Blog
Talk At US Air Force Global Strike Command

By Hans M. Kristensen Earlier this week I went to Barksdale AFB on an invitation from General Jim Kowalski at Air Force Global Strike Command to brief his Deterrence and Assurance Working Group. Air Force Global Strike Command (AFGSC) is responsible for keeping U.S. strategic bombers (B-2 and B-52) and Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) combat […]

05.10.13 | 2 min read
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Global Risk
Blog
Russian SSBN Fleet: Modernizing But Not Sailing Much

By Hans M. Kristensen The Russian ballistic missile submarine fleet is being modernized but conducting so few deterrent patrols that each submarine crew cannot be certain to get out of port even once a year. During 2012, according to data obtained from U.S. Naval Intelligence under the Freedom of Information Act, the entire Russian fleet […]

05.03.13 | 6 min read
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Global Risk
Issue Brief
Regulating Japanese Nuclear Power in the Wake of the Fukushima Daiichi Accident

The 2011 accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant was preventable. The Great East Japan earthquake and the tsunami that followed it were unprecedented events in recent history, but they were not altogether unforeseeable.

05.01.13 | 1 min read
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Global Risk
Blog
Declining Deterrent Patrols Indicate Too Many SSBNs

By Hans M. Kristensen Does the U.S. Navy have more ballistic missile submarines than it needs? Dramatic reductions in deterrent patrols – but not submarines – suggest so. Over the past thirteen years, the number of deterrent patrols conducted each year by U.S. ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) has declined by more than half. During most […]

04.30.13 | 6 min read
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Global Risk
Blog
PREPCOM Nuclear Weapons De-Alerting Briefing

By Hans M. Kristensen Greetings from Geneva! I’m at the Palais des Nations for the second Preparatory Committee (PREPCOM) meeting for the 2015 Review Conference of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). I was invited by the Swiss and New Zealand UN Missions to brief our report Reducing Alert Rates of Nuclear Weapons. With me on […]

04.25.13 | 1 min read
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