Washington, D.C. – March 12, 2025 – The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) today released “Nuclear Notebook: China” – its authoritative annual survey of China’s nuclear weapons arsenal. The FAS Nuclear Notebook is considered the most reliable public source for information on global nuclear arsenals for all nine nuclear-armed states. FAS has played a critical role for almost 80 years to increase transparency and accountability over the world’s nuclear arsenals and to support policies that reduce the numbers and risks of their use.

This year’s report, published in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, shows the following nuclear trends:

• The total number of Chinese nuclear warheads is now estimated to include approximately 600 warheads. The vast majority of these are in storage and a small number—perhaps 24—are deployed. 

• China is NOT a nuclear “peer” of the United States, as some contend. China’s total number of approximately 600 warheads constitutes only a small portion of the United States’ estimated stockpile of 3,700 warheads.  While the United States has a fully established triad of strategic forces, China is still working to develop a nuclear triad; the submarine-based leg has significantly less capability, and the bomber leg is far less capable than the United States.
  
• China continues to see their land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as their most reliable and survivable nuclear force. China continues to prioritize its land-based force and increase its role in both number and capability. China has completed construction of its three new ICBM silo fields, one of which was publicly disclosed by FAS in 2021.  We estimate that around 30 silos have been loaded. China has also increased the number of road-mobile ICBM bases.
  
• China is continuing to develop its relatively small ballistic missile submarines (SSBN) force through improved missiles and a follow-on SSBN class. Production of the new “Type 096” SSBN has been delayed. We estimate that Chinese SSBNs are now conducting continuous patrols with nuclear weapons on board. However, Chinese SSBNs cannot target continental United States from their operating areas.
  
• Development of a viable nuclear bomber force is still in its early stages. Only one base has been established at Neixiang for the new H-6N bomber. The H-20 replacement bomber appears to be delayed.  

FAS Nuclear Experts and Previous Issues of Nuclear Notebook

The FAS Nuclear Notebook, co-authored by Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns, and Mackenzie Knight, is published bi-monthly in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The joint publication began in 1987. FAS, formed in 1945 by the scientists who developed the nuclear weapon, has worked since to increase nuclear transparency, reduce nuclear risks, and advocate for responsible reductions of nuclear arsenal and their role.

This latest issue on the United State’s nuclear weapons comes after the release of Nuclear Notebook: United States on America’s nuclear arsenal. More research available at FAS’s Nuclear Information Project.

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ABOUT FAS

The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) works to advance progress on a broad suite of contemporary issues where science, technology, and innovation policy can deliver transformative impact, and seeks to ensure that scientific and technical expertise have a seat at the policymaking table. Established in 1945 by scientists in response to the atomic bomb, FAS continues to bring scientific rigor and analysis to address contemporary challenges. More information about FAS work at fas.org.

The Federation of American Scientists strongly supports the Modernizing Wildfire Safety and Prevention Act of 2025.

The Modernizing Wildfire Safety and Prevention Act would combat firefighter shortages by establishing a new Middle Fire Leaders Academy and grant programs to train and hire more firefighters and retain expert wildland firefighters with increased benefits and better working conditions. The bill would establish the Joint Office of the Fire Environment Center to improve fire response time with updated technology like developing risk maps and establishing. Lastly, it would address the public health crisis caused by wildfire smoke by establishing a nationwide real-time air quality monitoring and alert system.

“As the wildfire crisis continues to grow in size and severity, our solutions must be ambitious to meet the moment. The Wildland Fire Mitigation and Management Commission developed 148 non-partisan policy recommendations to tackle this crisis and the Modernizing Wildfire Safety and Prevention Act is a bold and bipartisan package that incorporates a number of the Commission’s recommendations.” said Daniel Correa, Chief Executive Officer of the Federation of American Scientists. “Rep. Harder, Rep. Franklin and Rep. Neguse have put forth a multi-pronged innovative approach to tackle the wildfire crisis. In particular, the creation of the Fire Environment Center is a game changer for land and fuels management, community risk reduction, fire management and response.”

For more information contact James Campbell, Wildfire Policy Specialist, at jcampbell@fas.org.

The Regional Leadership in Wildland Fire Research Act would establish regional research centers at institutions of higher education across the country to research and improve our understanding of wildland fire, develop, maintain, and operate next-generation fire and vegetation models, and create a career pathway training program.

“Extreme weather has pushed wildfires to grow in size and severity, making our current wildfire models inadequate. The Regional Leadership in Wildland Fire Research Act is a significant investment in understanding how wildland fire risks continue to evolve, and establishes a strong foundation that first responders and forest managers can rely on,” said Daniel Correa, Chief Executive Officer of the Federation of American Scientists. “We commend Senator Luján, Senator Sullivan, Senator Padilla, and Senator Sheehy for their leadership to champion and invest in innovative next-generation fire and vegetation models to protect human health, ecosystems, and our communities.”

For more information contact James Campbell, Wildfire Policy Specialist, at jcampbell@fas.org.

Washington, D.C. – March 7, 2025 – The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) is pleased to welcome Dr. Yong-Bee Lim as the new Associate Director of Global Risk. In this role, Dr. Lim will help develop, organize, and implement FAS’s growing contribution in the area of catastrophic risk prevention, including on core areas of nuclear weapons, AI and national security, space and other emerging technologies.  

“The role of informed, credible and engaging organizations in support of sound public policy is more important than ever” said Jon Wolfsthal, FAS Director of Global Risk. “Yong-Bee embodies what it means to be an effective policy entrepreneur and to make meaningful contributions to US and global security. We are really excited that he is now part of the FAS team.”

Dr. Lim is a recognized expert in biosecurity, emerging technologies, and converging risks through his former roles as Deputy Director of both the the Converging Risks Lab and the Janne E. Nolan Center at the Council on Strategic Risks, his research and leadership roles in academia, and through his work at key agencies (DoD, HHS/ASPR, and DoE) in the United States. He completed his Ph.D. in Biodefense from George Mason University’s Biodefense program, where he conducted critical work on understanding the safety, security, and cultural dimensions of the U.S.-based Do-It-Yourself Biology (DIYBio) community. His recent accolades include being in the inaugural fellowship class of the Editorial Fellows program at the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and his selection and involvement in the Emerging Leaders in Biosecurity Initiative hosted by the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. 

“As emerging capabilities change the very contours of safety, security, and innovation, FAS has positioned itself to both highlight the global opportunities we must seize and address the global risks we must mitigate,” Lim said. “Founded in 1945, FAS continues to display thought leadership and impact because it has not forgotten its core mission: to ensure that scientific and technical expertise continue to have a seat at the policymaking table. I am honored to be part of an organization with a legacy and mission like FAS.”

ABOUT FAS

The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) works to advance progress on a broad suite of issues where science, technology, and innovation policy can deliver transformative impact, and seeks to ensure that scientific and technical expertise have a seat at the policymaking table. Established in 1945 by scientists in response to the atomic bomb, FAS continues to bring scientific rigor and analysis to address contemporary challenges. More information about FAS work at fas.org and Global Risk, here.

The first Trump Administration’s E.O. 13859 commitment laid the foundation for increasing government accountability in AI use; this should continue

Washington, D.C. – March 6, 2025 – The Federation of American Scientists (FAS), a non-partisan, nonprofit science think tank dedicated to developing evidence-based policies to address national challenges, today released a letter to the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), signed by 16 additional scientific and technical organizations, urging the current Trump administration to maintain the federal agency AI use cases inventories at the current level of detail.

“The federal government has immense power to shape industry standards, academic research, and public perception of artificial intelligence,” says Daniel Correa, CEO of the Federation of American Scientists. “By continuing the work set forth by the first Trump administration in Executive Order 13960  and continued by the bipartisan 2023 Advancing American AI Act, OMB’s detailed use cases help us understand the depth and scope of AI systems used for government services.”

“FAS and our fellow organizations urge the administration to maintain these use case standards because these inventories provide a critical check on government AI use,” says Dr. Jedidah Isler, Chief Science Officer at FAS.

AI Guidance Update Mid-March

“Transparency is essential for public trust, which in turn is critical to maximizing the benefits of government AI use. That’s why FAS is leading a letter urging the administration to uphold the current level of agency AI use case detail—ensuring transparency remains a top priority,” says Oliver Stephenson, Associate Director of AI and Emerging Tech Policy at FAS.

“Americans want reassurances that the development and use of artificial intelligence within the federal government is safe;  and that we have the ability to mitigate any adverse impacts. By maintaining guidance that federal agencies have to collect and publish information on risks, development status, oversight, data use and so many other elements, OMB will continue strengthening Americans’ trust in the development and use of artificial intelligence,” says Clara Langevin, AI Policy Specialist at FAS.

Surging Use of AI in Government 

This letter follows the dramatic rise in the use of artificial intelligence across government, with anticipated growth coming at a rapid rate. For example, at the end of 2024 the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) alone reported 158 active AI use cases. Of these, 29 were identified as high-risk, with detailed documentation on how 24 of those use cases are mitigating potential risks. OMB and OSTP have the ability and authority to set the guidelines that can address the growing pace of government innovation. 

FAS and our signers believe that sustained transparency is crucial to ensuring responsible AI governance, fostering public trust, and enabling responsible industry innovation.

Signatories Urging AI Use Case Inventories at Current Level of Detail

Federation of American Scientists
Beeck Center for Social Impact + Innovation at Georgetown University
Bonner Enterprises, LLC
Center for AI and Digital Policy
Center for Democracy & Technology
Center for Inclusive Change
CUNY Public Interest Tech Lab
Electronic Frontier Foundation
Environmental Policy Innovation Center
Mozilla
National Fair Housing Alliance
NETWORK Lobby for Catholic Social Justice
New America’s Open Technology Institute
POPVOX Foundation
Public Citizen
SeedAI
The Governance Lab

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ABOUT FAS

The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) works to advance progress on a broad suite of contemporary issues where science, technology, and innovation policy can deliver dramatic progress, and seeks to ensure that scientific and technical expertise have a seat at the policymaking table. Established in 1945 by scientists in response to the atomic bomb, FAS continues to work on behalf of a safer, more equitable, and more peaceful world. More information about FAS work at fas.org.

ABOUT THIS COALITION

Organizations signed on to this letter represent a range of technology stakeholders in industry, academia, and nonprofit realms. We share a commitment to AI transparency.  We urge the current administration, OMB, and OSTP to retain the policies set forth in Trump’s Executive Order 13960 and continued in the bipartisan 2023 Advancing American AI Act.

3/5/2025 Update: FAS issues letter of support for the Fix Our Forests Act ahead of Subcommittee Hearing. Read full letter here.

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The Federation of American Scientists supports H.R. 471, the re-introduction of the Fix Our Forests Act. In the wake of the ongoing and devastating Los Angeles wildfires, we urge the House of Representatives to swiftly pass this bill on strong bipartisan margins much like they did in September 2024. 

“Failing to address the root causes of devastating wildfires is a policy choice. As the crisis in Los Angeles shows, it’s a choice we can no longer afford,” said Daniel Correa, Chief Executive Officer of the Federation of American Scientists. “The Fix Our Forests Act takes important steps to confront these disasters. FAS particularly supports the creation of the Fireshed Center, which would provide first responders with science-backed decision-support tools, and serve as a nerve center to embed and deploy critical technology across the entire wildfire lifecycle of prevention, suppression, and recovery.” 

FAS championed important provisions of the Fix our Forests Act,  such as essential reforms needed to improve fuel management as well as support for cutting edge-innovations in science and technology. These provisions include: 

• Section 117 – Utilizing livestock grazing for wildfire risk reduction, including fuels reduction and postfire recovery.
• Sections 201 and 202 – Creating the Community Wildfire Risk Reduction Program.
• Section 301 – Establishing a partnership program for biochar demonstration projects to support development and commercialization.
• Section 302 – Implementing accurate reporting systems for hazardous fuels reduction progress.
• Section 401 – Establishing a wildland fire management casualty assistance program.

“The science is clear: tackling the wildfire crisis means better forest management, including increased use of beneficial fire and new technologies to scale fuels reduction. The Fix Our Forests Act will get this work done by establishing the Fireshed Center and through other smart provisions. FAS urges Congress to take bipartisan action now and pass this bill.” said James Campbell, Wildfire Policy Specialist at the Federation of American Scientists.

The Federation of American Scientists strongly supports the reintroduction of the Critical Materials Future Act and the Unearth Innovation Act.

The Critical Materials Future Act would launch a pilot program at the Department of Energy (DOE) to use innovative financial mechanisms, such as contracts for difference, to support domestic processing projects, ensuring that these projects can withstand global market volatility. The bill also directs the Secretary to produce a study on the impact of these tools in advancing the development of the domestic critical minerals supply chains. The Unearth Innovation Act would establish a Mineral and Mining Innovations Initiative at DOE to research and develop new approaches for producing critical minerals in a more efficient and less environmentally impactful manner.

“The United States desperately needs a new and proactive approach to developing responsible, resilient critical minerals supply chains for the technologies that undergird our future. The Federation of American Scientists applauds the reintroduction of the Critical Materials Future Act and the Unearth Innovation Act,” said Daniel Correa, Chief Executive Officer at the Federation of American Scientists. “The Critical Materials Future Act is a strong starting point for providing necessary price and offtake certainty to domestic processing projects, which face particularly strong headwinds due to the narrow margins and severe global market concentration in the industry. Through investing in near-term capacity and innovating on byproduct recovery and recycling, remining and remediation, and robust community engagement, these bills will ensure the stability and longevity of critical minerals supply chains for the U.S.” 

“There is no energy transition, no energy security without critical minerals, and the current state of critical minerals supply chains makes them extremely vulnerable to disruption. Accelerating the pace of decarbonization will require proactively addressing the problem of where and how these materials are sourced. The Critical Materials Future Act and the Unearth Innovation Act meet the moment by countering the market failures hindering the development of domestic processing capacity and reinvigorating American minerals innovation,” said Alice Wu, Senior Policy Associate for Clean Energy at the Federation of American Scientists

For more information contact Alice Wu at awu@fas.org

The Federation of American Scientists supports the Wildfire Intelligence Collaboration and Coordination Act of 2025.

This vital bill would create a Wildfire Intelligence Center to provide decision support across the entire wildfire lifecycle of prevention, suppression, and recovery efforts, thereby allowing stakeholders to retain autonomy while holistically addressing the wildfire crisis. Inspired by consensus recommendations from the Wildland Fire Mitigation and Management Commission, this bill further underscores the strong bipartisan momentum in Congress for a new federal center to improve wildfire detection speed and accuracy, enhance recovery efforts, and better prepare for catastrophic wildfires. FAS has previously supported similar legislation to create such a center. We look forward to working with partners to move forward on a single collaborative effort.

“FAS applauds Senators Padilla and Sheehy for introducing this bill, which would take a crucial step forward in protecting our communities from increasingly severe wildfires. The Wildfire Intelligence Center would bring together expertise at all levels of government to give our firefighters and first responders access to cutting-edge tools and the decision support they need to confront this growing crisis,” said James Campbell, Wildfire Policy Specialist at the Federation of American Scientists.

Technology and talent recommendations will speed permitting required by the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA)

Washington, D.C. – February 5, 2025 – To facilitate faster implementation on our Nation’s biggest projects, the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), a non-partisan, nonprofit science think tank dedicated to developing evidence-based policies to address national threats, today released permitting policy recommendations to improve talent and technology in the federal permitting process. These recommendations will address the sometimes years-long bottlenecks that prevent implementation of crucial projects, from energy to transportation.

“Inefficient permitting processes continue to impede accelerated deployment of energy, infrastructure, and restoration projects in the U.S ,” says Daniel Correa, CEO of FAS.  “Even as so much of the debate in Washington, DC focuses on legislative fixes, our findings suggest that it all comes down to getting implementation right. And getting these details right is what will help ensure that speed and efficiency do not come at the costs of core ecosystem services and environmental benefits.” Though permitting regulations and processes are currently in flux, government entities should strategically leverage talent and technology to build and implement a more efficient, effective process. 

Modernized Technology and Highly Skilled Talent

For the last 18 months, FAS has been studying how agencies use technology and talent in permitting processes required by the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). For the talent portion of the project, FAS partnered with the Permitting Council to understand bottlenecks to federal hiring for permitting roles and recommend solutions. 

“We identified a series of challenges hindering the development of talent capacity and stymieing the hiring process, synthesized insights from civil servants, and are making recommendations to address these bottlenecks,” says Erica Goldman, Director of the Day One Project and Policy Entrepreneurship at FAS.

She continues: “Through our technology work in partnership with the Environmental Policy Innovation Center (EPIC), we’ve highlighted pockets of innovation, talked to stakeholders working to streamline NEPA processes, and made evidence-based recommendations for improved technology practices in government. This work has substantiated our hypothesis that technology has untapped potential to improve the efficiency and utility of NEPA processes and data.”

Parallel Permitting Challenges 

Great technology doesn’t build itself. Solutions to the technology and talent challenges that plague permitting will fall short of their potential if they are not developed together. Great technology products come from great talent. In turn, great talent can be unleashed with better technology. 

“In our work, we noticed that technology and talent initiatives face parallel challenges in several respects. For example, federal permitting is accomplished through disparate teams across agencies’ regions, offices, and bureaus with disparate staffing models and occupations; in the same way, permitting technologies are diffuse and unique to specific agency or sub-agency teams and permitting goals instead of consistent and shared across permitting teams,” says Peter Bonner, Senior Fellow at FAS, who was involved with the research.

He continues: “As the federal government wrestles with improving the efficiency of permitting processes, it is imperative that technology and talent teams work together. Recognizing the intrinsic link between talent and technology and addressing shared challenges collaboratively is essential to building a more efficient permitting system.”

“At the end of the day, we think using technology, including AI, can eliminate more than 50% of the time it takes to complete every permit,” says Tim Male, Executive Director of EPIC, “yet that tech won’t work if you don’t have the right people in and out of government who understand and can leverage it – our recommendations are about the people, policy and tech solutions to accelerate permitting.”

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ABOUT FAS

The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) works to advance progress on a broad suite of contemporary issues where science, technology, and innovation policy can deliver dramatic progress, and seeks to ensure that scientific and technical expertise have a seat at the policymaking table. Established in 1945 by scientists in response to the atomic bomb, FAS continues to work on behalf of a safer, more equitable, and more peaceful world. More information about FAS work at fas.org.

ABOUT ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY INNOVATION CENTER

The Environmental Policy Innovation Center (EPIC) advances policies that deliver spectacular improvement in the speed and scale of environmental progress. A nonprofit start-up founded in 2017, EPIC is committed to finding and highlighting the best approaches to scaling up results quickly across drinking water, biodiversity, permitting, environmental markets, and the use of data and technology to produce positive environmental and public health outcomes. More about our EPIC work at policyinnovation.org.

Permitting Reform Resources

A full list of publications from FAS’s 18 month research workstream, including findings, recommendations, and case studies, can be found on FAS’s website. 

The Federation of American Scientists supports S.325, a bill to establish the National Integrated Heat Health Information System (NIHHIS) and the NIHHIS Interagency Committee.

S.325 would establish a clear, sustained federal governance structure for extreme heat by bringing all responsible agencies together to coordinate planning, preparedness, and response, a key recommendation of FAS’ 2025 Heat Policy Agenda. The bill also authorizes $5 million in annual appropriations for NIHHIS to deliver critical data, forecasts, and warnings and decision-support services as well as support a heat-health research program.

“Senator Markey, Gallego, and Padilla recognize that the National Integrated Heat Health Information System (NIHHIS) is vital to the nation’s extreme heat preparedness and response. We need a comprehensive strategy to build U.S. resilience to extreme heat using science, technology, and evidence-based solutions. Our Nation’s people, infrastructure, and economy depend on it. There is no time to wait – heat season is less than three months away.” said Grace Wickerson, Senior Manager, Climate and Health at the Federation of American Scientists.

Dr. Isler exemplifies a commitment to rigor and a talent for communicating the connections between science and policy

Washington, D.C. – January 14, 2025 – The Federation of American Scientists is excited to welcome Dr. Jedidah Isler as the organization’s first Chief Science Officer. This new position is an important part of the leadership team at FAS, and Jedidah brings scientific expertise, strategic direction to our policy teams, and a deep understanding of how science and technology interact with innovative, effective, and inclusive public policy. 

“Having Jedidah join the FAS team is an important step for our organization,” Daniel Correa, FAS CEO said. “She shares the ambition and vision for impact that all our team holds, and will help us build stronger bridges between the scientific and technological community and those making policy decisions in government. We knew we needed a particular type of person to fill this role – and Jedidah is that special individual who exemplifies a commitment to rigor and a talent for communicating the connections between science and policy. I’m thrilled.”

Dr. Isler has worked extensively with schools, universities, nonprofit organizations, and planetariums across the country to inspire and advance a more equitable future where anyone can participate in, contribute to, and benefit from science and technology. She is a nationally-recognized public speaker, and the founder and former executive director of the STEM en Route to Change (SeRCH) Foundation, Inc., whose signature program, VanguardSTEM, is thriving with a new generation of women of color scientists and leaders.

A proud double-HBCU graduate (Norfolk State University and Fisk University), Isler became the first African American woman to complete her Ph.D. in astrophysics at Yale University with a focus on hyperactive supermassive black holes. She continued that research on the faculty at Dartmouth College before turning her attention to science policy and joining the White House Office of Science & Technology Policy (OSTP). At OSTP, Isler was Principal Assistant Director and interim lead for the Science & Society division.

“I’ve spent a lot of time in the world of science, science communication and policy, and FAS has definitely carved out a unique role in this sphere,” Isler said. “I’ve already worked with many people on this team during the Day One Project, and I’ve been very impressed with what they are capable of – particularly opening the policy development process to anyone with a good idea. This is deeply aligned with my personal commitment to increase access and engagement across the science & technology ecosystem. I’m delighted to join FAS at this critical juncture to help identify, develop and share the best science and technology policy ideas from anyone who wants to offer them with a team of talented colleagues who already “get it.”.”

ABOUT FAS

The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) works to advance progress on a broad suite of contemporary issues where science, technology, and innovation policy can deliver dramatic progress, and seeks to ensure that scientific and technical expertise have a seat at the policymaking table. Established in 1945 by scientists in response to the atomic bomb, FAS continues to work on behalf of a safer, more equitable, and more peaceful world. More information about FAS work at fas.org.

Washington, D.C. – January 13, 2025 – Today, the Federation of American Scientists released “United States Nuclear Weapons, 2025”—its estimate and analysis of the U.S. nuclear weapons arsenal. The annual report, published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, estimates that the United States maintains a stockpile of approximately 3,700 warheads, about 1,700 of which are deployed. 

Under several successive presidential administrations, the United States has pursued an ambitious nuclear modernization program, including upgrades to each leg of its nuclear arsenal. Under the Biden administration, however, the debate has shifted to begin assessing ways that the United States could potentially increase the number of nuclear weapons that could be deployed on its current launchers by uploading more warheads. 

Despite mounting cost overruns and program delays in its nuclear modernization efforts, the incoming Trump administration has signaled it may pursue additional nuclear weapons programs and further expand the role that these weapons play in U.S. military strategy, based in part on the recommendations of the 2023 Strategic Posture Commission. 

Nuclear Signaling

In recent years, the United States sought to use its nuclear arsenal to signal both its resolve and capability to adversary nations—an effort likely to continue and grow in the coming years. Past efforts at nuclear signaling include increased nuclear-armed bomber exercises, updating nuclear strike plans, nuclear submarine visits to foreign ports, and participation in NATO’s annual Steadfast Noon nuclear exercise. In addition, the Biden administration announced that its new nuclear employment guidance determined “it may be necessary to adapt current U.S. force capability, posture, composition, or size,” and directed the Pentagon “to continuously evaluate whether adjustments should be made.” This language effectively leaves it to the incoming Trump administration to decide whether to expand the U.S. arsenal in response to China’s buildup (read a detailed FAS analysis by Adam Mount and Hans Kristensen here). 

Modernization and Nuclear Infrastructure

Nuclear modernization continues for all three legs of the nuclear triad. For the ground-based leg, the new ICBM reentry vehicle––the Mk21A––is expected to enter the Engineering and Manufacturing development phase in FY25. It will be integrated into the Sentinel ICBM and carry the new W87-1 warheads currently under development. The Sentinel ICBM program continues to run over-budget as all 450 launch centers must be renovated to accommodate the new missile, and new command and control facilities, launch centers, training sites, and curriculum for USAF personnel must be created. For the sea leg, the first Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine (SSBN)––the USS District of Columbia––passed its 50 percent construction completion metric in August 2024, and the USS Wisconsin passed 14 percent in September. The new SSBNs will include a reactor that, unlike the Ohio class SSBNs, will not require refueling for the entirety of its lifecycle. The program faces delays and is projected to cost five times more than the Navy’s estimates For the air leg, the Air Force is developing a new nuclear air-launched cruise missile (ALCM) known as the AGM-181 LRSO, as well as the B-21 Raider and new gravity bombs, including the B61-12 and B61-13. 

Throughout 2024, infrastructure upgrades at various U.S. ICBM bases were visible. This includes a new Weapons Generation Facility at Malmstrom Air Force Base and a Missile-Handling and Storage Facility and Transporter Storage Facility at F.E. Warren Air Force Base, as well as test silos at Vandenberg Space Force Base.

Finally, in addition to these ongoing upgrades, the United States is also considering developing a new non-strategic nuclear sea-launched cruise missile (SLCM-N), which was proposed during the first Trump administration. Despite the Biden administration’s attempt to cancel the program, Congress has forced the administration to establish the SLCM-N as a program of record. The SLCM-N was originally expected to use the W80–4 warhead that is being developed for the LRSO; however, this is currently being renegotiated. The warhead and delivery platform are expected to be finalized in early 2025.

The Nuclear Notebook is published in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists and freely available here.

This latest issue follows the release of the 2024 UK Nuclear Notebook. The next issue will focus on China. Additional analysis of global nuclear forces can be found at FAS’s Nuclear Information Project.

ABOUT THE NUCLEAR NOTEBOOK 

The FAS Nuclear Notebook, co-authored by Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns, and Mackenzie Knight, is an effort by the Nuclear Information Project team published bi-monthly in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The joint publication began in 1987. FAS, formed in 1945 by the scientists who developed the nuclear weapon, has worked since to increase nuclear transparency, reduce nuclear risks, and advocate for responsible reductions of nuclear arsenals and the role of nuclear weapons in national security.

The Federation of American Scientists’ work on nuclear transparency would not be possible without generous support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, Longview Philanthropy, the Jubitz Foundation, the New-Land Foundation, Ploughshares, the Prospect Hill Foundation, and individual donors.

ABOUT FAS

The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) works to advance progress on a broad suite of contemporary issues where science, technology, and innovation policy can deliver dramatic progress, and seeks to ensure that scientific and technical expertise have a seat at the policymaking table. Established in 1945 by scientists in response to the atomic bomb, FAS continues to work on behalf of a safer, more equitable, and more peaceful world. More at fas.org