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Secrecy and Error Correction in Open Source Intel

Open source intelligence products, which are based on information gathered in the public domain, are often withheld from public disclosure, for various reasons.  These include habit, the cultivation of the mystique of secret intelligence, the protection of copyrighted information, and the preservation of “decision advantage,” i.e. the policy-relevant insight that open source intelligence at its […]

08.31.09 | 2 min read
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An Open Source Center Survey of Japanese Media

“Japan is a media-saturated nation where the level of consumption of both newspapers and television is extremely high by global standards,” according to a new assessment from the DNI Open Source Center (OSC).  “Furthermore, the news media have the deep trust of the people…. More Japanese adults trust journalism than trust any other institution [including] […]

08.31.09 | 2 min read
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Global Risk
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Increased Safeguards at Natanz: What Does It All Mean?

by Ivanka Barzashka and Ivan Oelrich A much anticipated IAEA report on Iran’s nuclear activities was leaked today.  The report indicates that, among other things, Iran has conceded to additional safeguard at Natanz.  This is a welcome development but occurring amidst a contested Iranian election, European threats of increased sanctions, continuing oblique hints of Israeli […]

08.28.09 | 9 min read
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Global Risk
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Pakistani Nuclear Forces 2009

A high-security weapons storage area northwest of Karachi appears to be a potential nuclear weapons storage site. (click image to download larger version) By Hans M. Kristensen Pakistan’s nuclear weapons stockpile now includes an estimated 70-90 nuclear warheads, according to the latest Nuclear Notebook published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The estimate is […]

08.28.09 | 2 min read
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Global Risk
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Securing Venezuela’s Arsenals

By Matt Schroeder The recent discovery of Swedish AT-4 anti-tank rockets sold to Venezuela in a Colombian rebel arms cache raises serious questions about Venezuela’s ability to safeguard its arsenal of modern weaponry, including dozens of advanced SA-24 shoulder-fired, surface-to-air missiles.  Given the potential threat posed by these missiles and other weapons in Venezuela’s rapidly […]

08.24.09 | 6 min read
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Information Sharing as a Form of Secrecy

The Obama Administration is giving increased attention to the continuing post-9/11 challenge of information sharing, with a newly appointed White House Senior Director of Information Sharing Policy tasked to lead the effort. But this new activity does not imply any reduction in the volume of security and safety-related information that is withheld from the public. […]

08.17.09 | 5 min read
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Special Ops Get Help Processing Pocket Litter

U.S. special operations forces (SOF) are successfully collecting valuable operational intelligence materials in the field, but they lack the capability to quickly process, exploit and disseminate those materials, the House Appropriations Committee said in its recent report on the 2010 defense appropriations bill (excerpts). “Ongoing SOF operations demonstrate the ability to collect significant amounts of […]

08.17.09 | 1 min read
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Inspectors General Chase Leaks at GPO, CRS

If it wanted to, the Obama Administration could instantly increase oversight of the national security classification system by tasking the Offices of Inspector General (IG) at each of the major classifying agencies to assume some responsibility for secrecy oversight.  In coordination with the Information Security Oversight Office, those IGs could perform periodic audits of classification […]

08.12.09 | 4 min read
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CRS on Overt U.S. Aid to Pakistan

The United States provided around $15.4 billion in overt aid to Pakistan between Fiscal Years 2002 and 2009, according to a newly updated Congressional Research Service tabulation.  The U.S. aid included military training, equipment and other forms of assistance.  An additional $3.6 billion is requested for FY 2010.  See “Direct Overt U.S. Aid and Military […]

08.12.09 | 1 min read
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OSC Sees Growing Media Monopoly in Venezuela

The Venezuelan government of President Hugo Chavez “is moving forcefully to silence critics by introducing a Media Crimes bill that would give it sweeping authority to jail journalists, media executives, and bloggers who report on anything that the government considers to be harmful to state interests,” said a new assessment (pdf) by the Intelligence Community’s […]

08.12.09 | 1 min read
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Global Risk
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Hiroshima: Making the Sixty-fourth Anniversary Special

by Ivan Oelrich Today is the sixty-fourth anniversary of the nuclear bombing of Hiroshima, which was one of those rare events that divides human history into a before and an after.  That day was the beginning of the nuclear age.  There is nothing special about sixty-four, not like a fiftieth or a centenary.  But, years […]

08.06.09 | 5 min read
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FAS
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Towards a Fresh Start in Classification Policy

The current Obama Administration review of classification policy will almost certainly produce an incremental adjustment to existing practices– though hopefully with provisions for independent validation (or rejection) of agency classification decisions, strengthened oversight, expedited declassification, and so forth.  But it is unlikely to lead to a wholesale replacement of the basic framework of the Cold […]

08.06.09 | 3 min read
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