Chinese Nuclear Weapons, 2025: Federation of American Scientists Reveals Latest Facts on Beijing’s Nuclear Buildup
Washington, D.C. – March 12, 2025 – The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) today released “Nuclear Notebook: China” – its authoritative annual survey of China’s nuclear weapons arsenal. The FAS Nuclear Notebook is considered the most reliable public source for information on global nuclear arsenals for all nine nuclear-armed states. FAS has played a critical role for almost 80 years to increase transparency and accountability over the world’s nuclear arsenals and to support policies that reduce the numbers and risks of their use.
This year’s report, published in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, shows the following nuclear trends:
- The total number of Chinese nuclear warheads is now estimated to include approximately 600 warheads. The vast majority of these are in storage and a small number—perhaps 24—are deployed.
- China is NOT a nuclear “peer” of the United States, as some contend. China’s total number of approximately 600 warheads constitutes only a small portion of the United States’ estimated stockpile of 3,700 warheads. While the United States has a fully established triad of strategic forces, China is still working to develop a nuclear triad; the submarine-based leg has significantly less capability, and the bomber leg is far less capable than the United States.
- China continues to see their land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as their most reliable and survivable nuclear force. China continues to prioritize its land-based force and increase its role in both number and capability. China has completed construction of its three new ICBM silo fields, one of which was publicly disclosed by FAS in 2021. We estimate that around 30 silos have been loaded. China has also increased the number of road-mobile ICBM bases.
- China is continuing to develop its relatively small ballistic missile submarines (SSBN) force through improved missiles and a follow-on SSBN class. Production of the new “Type 096” SSBN has been delayed. We estimate that Chinese SSBNs are now conducting continuous patrols with nuclear weapons on board. However, Chinese SSBNs cannot target continental United States from their operating areas.
- Development of a viable nuclear bomber force is still in its early stages. Only one base has been established at Neixiang for the new H-6N bomber. The H-20 replacement bomber appears to be delayed.
FAS Nuclear Experts and Previous Issues of Nuclear Notebook
The FAS Nuclear Notebook, co-authored by Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns, and Mackenzie Knight, is published bi-monthly in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The joint publication began in 1987. FAS, formed in 1945 by the scientists who developed the nuclear weapon, has worked since to increase nuclear transparency, reduce nuclear risks, and advocate for responsible reductions of nuclear arsenal and their role.
This latest issue on the United State’s nuclear weapons comes after the release of Nuclear Notebook: United States on America’s nuclear arsenal. More research available at FAS’s Nuclear Information Project.
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ABOUT FAS
The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) works to advance progress on a broad suite of contemporary issues where science, technology, and innovation policy can deliver transformative impact, and seeks to ensure that scientific and technical expertise have a seat at the policymaking table. Established in 1945 by scientists in response to the atomic bomb, FAS continues to bring scientific rigor and analysis to address contemporary challenges. More information about FAS work at fas.org.
China is NOT a nuclear “peer” of the United States, as some contend.
China’s total number of approximately 600 warheads constitutes only a small portion of the United States’ estimated stockpile of 3,700 warheads.
Dr. Lim will help develop, organize, and implement FAS’s growing contribution in the area of catastrophic risk including on core areas of nuclear weapons, AI and national security, space, and other emerging technologies.
Moreover, the recent decrease in UK government transparency regarding the status of its nuclear arsenal and modernization program reflects a worrisome global trend.
Even without weapons present, the addition of a large nuclear air base in northern Europe is a significant new development that would have been inconceivable just a decade-and-a-half ago.