Federation of American Scientists Releases Latest United Kingdom Edition of Nuclear Notebook
Washington, D.C. – November 12, 2024 – The United Kingdom is modernizing its stockpile of nuclear weapons and delivery systems, as detailed today in the Federation of American Scientists latest edition of its Nuclear Notebook, “United Kingdom Nuclear Forces, 2024”. The researchers estimate that the United Kingdom has maintained its stockpile of 225 nuclear warheads and predict an eventual increase based on shifting posture to counter Russia, modernization, and alliance efforts. The Notebook is published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and available here.
“Budget overruns remain a constraint for the UK nuclear modernization program, significant parts of which are done in close collaboration with the United States, and efforts are underway to expand the nuclear warhead stockpile,” observes Hans Kristensen, Director of the FAS Nuclear Information Project and one of the Nuclear Notebook authors.
Modernization and nuclear infrastructure construction
The United Kingdom is replacing its sole nuclear platform––the aging Vanguard-class ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs)––with the new Dreadnought-class that is currently under construction.
Additionally, the FAS report includes satellite imagery of ongoing construction at the Atomic Weapons Establishment (AWE) facilities at Aldermaston and Burghfield, including a new warhead assembly facility, enriched uranium storage facility, and plutonium manufacturing facility.
Challenges for the future
Budget overruns and delays in construction continue to be one of the biggest issues for the United Kingdom’s nuclear program. Projected costs for the UK Navy have gone up by 41 percent due to the Dreadnought SSBN program. Delays in this program could threaten the Navy’s ability to maintain their Continuous At-Sea Deterrent (CASD), as it would put additional stress on the Vanguard fleet that has already been pushed past its service life. Nuclear infrastructure projects, including the MENSA warhead facility, are also behind schedule and over-budget.
Collaboration with the United States
Upgrades at RAF Lakenheath discovered by the Notebook authors signal the return of the United States Air Force nuclear mission to the United Kingdom, although it is unlikely that US nuclear weapons will be permanently stored on UK soil in peacetime. The arrival of the F-35A Lightning II, capable of carrying B61-12 gravity bombs, US budgetary indicators for special storage upgrades, and the construction of a new “surety” dormitory for US Airmen at RAF Lakenheath all indicate preparations for the potential return of US nuclear weapons which have been absent in the United Kingdom since 2008.
The Notebook also outlines cooperation between the UK and US Navy on missile tests. This year, UK ballistic missile submarines conducted test fires off the coast of Cape Canaveral, Florida, and US laboratories evaluated and provided measurements for the test effort.
###
ABOUT THE NUCLEAR NOTEBOOK
The FAS Nuclear Notebook, co-authored by Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda, Eliana Johns, and Mackenzie Knight, is an effort by the Nuclear Information Project team published bi-monthly in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The joint publication began in 1987. FAS, formed in 1945 by the scientists who developed the nuclear weapon, has worked since to increase nuclear transparency, reduce nuclear risks, and advocate for responsible reductions of nuclear arsenals and the role of nuclear weapons in national security.
This latest issue follows the release of the 2024 India Nuclear Notebook. The next issue will focus on the United States. More research is located at FAS’s Nuclear Information Project.
The Federation of American Scientists’ work on nuclear transparency would not be possible without generous support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, Longview Philanthropy, the Jubitz Foundation, the New-Land Foundation, Ploughshares, the Prospect Hill Foundation, and individual donors.
ABOUT FAS
The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) works to advance progress on a broad suite of contemporary issues where science, technology, and innovation policy can deliver dramatic progress, and seeks to ensure that scientific and technical expertise have a seat at the policymaking table. Established in 1945 by scientists in response to the atomic bomb, FAS continues to work on behalf of a safer, more equitable, and more peaceful world.
FAS believes the resolution is a necessary advancement of scientific understanding of the devastating consequences of a nuclear war.
FAS estimates that India has produced enough weapons-grade plutonium for up to 210 nuclear warheads, but has likely assembled closer to 172.