Publication Archive

Back
Global Risk
Blog
A Closer Look at China’s Missile Silo Construction

[Update: Some images have temporarily been taker down because Maxar does not allow their satellite images to be overlaid on a competitor’s image.] After the discovery during the summer of what appears to be at least three vast missile silo fields under construction near Yumen, Hami, and Ordos in north-central China, new commercial satellite images […]

11.02.21 | 13 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
NATO Nuclear Weapons Exercise Over Southern Europe

NATO announced Monday that it had started its annual nuclear exercise code-named Steadfast Noon. The week-long exercise is taking place over Southern Europe and involves aircraft and personnel from 14 NATO countries. According to the NATO statement, “Steadfast Noon involves training flights with dual-capable fighter jets, as well as conventional jets, backed by surveillance and […]

10.20.21 | 6 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
“Expert” Opinion More Likely to Damage Vaccine Trust Than Political Propaganda

Our research shows that the biggest threat to reliable information access for military and DoD service members is expert opinion. A high-level analysis of anti-COVID vaccine narratives on social media reveals that opinions from experts achieve higher relevancy and engagement than opinions from news pundits, even if the news source is considered reliable by its […]

10.14.21 | 5 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
After Trump Secrecy, Biden Administration Restores US Nuclear Weapons Transparency

The Biden administration yesterday afternoon declassified the number of nuclear weapons the United States possesses. The act reverses the secrecy of the Trump administration, which denied release of the number for three years, and restores the nuclear transparency of the Obama administration.

10.06.21 | 7 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
China Is Building A Second Nuclear Missile Silo Field

The Chinese missile silo program constitutes the most extensive silo construction since the US and Soviet missile silo construction during the Cold War.

07.26.21 | 9 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
Nuclear Secrecy: In Defense of Reform

One of the stranger features of nuclear weapons secrecy is the government’s ability to reach out and classify nuclear weapons-related information that has been privately generated without government involvement. This happened most recently in 2001. The roots of this constitutionally questionable policy are investigated in Restricted Data, a book by science historian Alex Wellerstein that sheds new light […]

05.26.21 | 5 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
First New START Data After Extension Shows Compliance

The first public release of New START aggregate numbers since the United States and Russia in February extended the agreement for five years shows the treaty continues to limit the two nuclear powers strategic offensive nuclear forces. Continued adherence to the New START limits is one of the few positive signs in the otherwise frosty […]

04.06.21 | 6 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
Big Tech CEOs questioned about fighting disinformation with AI by the House Energy and Commerce Committee

The amount of content posted on social media platforms is increasing at a dramatic rate, and so is the portion of that content that is false or misleading. For instance, users upload over 500 hours of video to YouTube every minute. While much of this content is innocuous, some content spreads harmful disinformation, and addressing the spread […]

04.02.21 | 5 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
British Defense Review Ends Nuclear Reductions Era

[Article updated May 11, 2021] The United Kingdom announced yesterday that it has decided to abandon a previous plan to reduce it nuclear weapons stockpile to 180 by the mid-2020s and instead “move to an overall nuclear weapon stockpile of no more than 260 warheads.” The decision makes Britain the first Western nuclear-armed state to […]

03.17.21 | 8 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
FAS Presses for Release of Nuclear Stockpile Data

Updated below For the past three years, the Trump Administration refused to provide an annual tally of the number of nuclear weapons in the U.S. nuclear stockpile or the number of weapons that had been dismantled each year, though that had been the practice under the Obama Administration and through 2017. The Federation of American Scientists […]

03.11.21 | 2 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
Aging Electronics May Limit Nuke Reliability

The use of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) electronic parts in nuclear weapons systems may reduce the reliability of the US nuclear arsenal over time as the electronics age in ways that are hard to predict, according to a newly disclosed report from the JASON science advisory panel. “Most of the electronic materials and components within a weapon […]

03.11.21 | 3 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
China’s Expanding Missile Training Area: More Silos, Tunnels, and Support Facilities

The Chinese military appears to be significantly expanding the number of ballistic missiles silos under construction in a new sprawling training area in the northern part of central China. Recent satellite images indicate that at least 16 silos are under construction, a significant expansion in just a few years since a silo was first described […]

02.24.21 | 10 min read
read more