FAS

“Risk Avoidance” Leads to Over-Classification

04.10.17 | 2 min read | Text by Steven Aftergood

When government officials consider whether to classify national security information, they should not aim for perfect security, according to new guidance from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Instead, classifiers should seek to limit unnecessary vulnerabilities, while keeping broader mission objectives in view.

“A Risk Avoidance strategy — eliminating risk entirely — is not an acceptable basis for agency [classification] guides because it encourages over-classification, restricts information sharing, [and] hinders the optimal use of intelligence information in support of national security and foreign policy goals,” the ODNI document said.

Rather, “All agencies should reflect in their classification decisions a Risk Management strategy — mitigating the likelihood and severity of risk — in protecting classified information over which they have [classification authority], including clear descriptions in their classification policies of how the strategy is used when making classification determinations.” See Principles of Classification Management for the Intelligence Community, ODNI, March 2017.

This risk management / risk avoidance dichotomy in classification policy has been batted around for a while. It was previously discussed at length in in the thoughtful but not very consequential 1994 report of the Joint Security Commission on Redefining Security in the post-cold war era.

“Some inherent vulnerabilities can never be eliminated fully, nor would the cost and benefit warrant this risk avoidance approach,” the Commission wrote. “We can and must provide a rational, cost-effective, and enduring framework using risk management as the underlying basis for security decision making.”

In short, it is only realistic to admit that some degree of risk is unavoidable and must be tolerated, and classification policy should reflect that reality.

But the risk management construct is not as helpful as one would wish. That is because its proponents, including the Joint Security Commission and the authors of the new ODNI document, typically stop short of providing concrete examples of information that risk avoiders would classify but that risk managers would permit to be disclosed. Without such illustrative guidance, risk management is in the eye of the beholder, and we are back where we started.

Meanwhile, there is persistent dissatisfaction with current secrecy policy within the national security bureaucracy itself.

Classifying too much information is “an impediment to our ability to conduct our operations,” said Air Force Gen. John Hyten of U.S. Strategic Command at a symposium last week (as reported by Phillip Swarts in Space News on April 6).

“We have so many capabilities now,” Gen. Hyten said. “There are all these special classifications that I can’t talk about, and if you look at those capabilities you wonder why are they classified so high. So we’re going to push those down.”

publications
See all publications
Government Capacity
day one project
Policy Memo
Tax Filing as Easy as Mobile Banking: Creating Product-Driven Government

Americans trade stocks instantly, but spend 13 hours on tax forms. They send cash by text, but wait weeks for IRS responses. The nation’s revenue collector ranks dead last in citizen satisfaction. The problem isn’t just paperwork — it’s how the government builds.

11.20.25 | 15 min read
read more
Clean Energy
Report
Report: When Ambition Meets Reality — Lessons Learned in Federal Clean Energy Implementation, and a Path Forward

In a new report, we begin to address these fundamental implementation questions based on discussions with over 80 individuals – from senior political staff to individual project managers – involved in the execution of major clean energy programs through the Department of Energy (DOE).

11.19.25 | 6 min read
read more
Environment
Public Comment
Position on Regional Leadership in Wildland Fire Research Act

FAS supports the bipartisan Regional Leadership in Wildland Fire Research Act under review in the House, just as we supported the earlier Senate version. Rep. David Min (D-CA) and Rep. Gabe Evans (R-CO) are leading the bill.

11.19.25 | 1 min read
read more
Environment
Public Comment
Re: Request for Information on Technology Roadmap To Increase Wildfire Firefighting Capabilities

The current wildfire management system is inadequate in the face of increasingly severe and damaging wildfires. Change is urgently needed

11.18.25 | 7 min read
read more