Global Risk

Nuclear Information Project: External Publications and Briefings

05.16.15 | 24 min read

This chronology lists selected external publications and briefings by the staff of the Nuclear Information Project. External links might go dead over time; if you need assistance to locate missing items, please contact individual project staff via the “About” page. To search for publications on the FAS Strategic Security Blog, see our Publications page.

2023

“Strategic Arms Control after the New START Treaty”, Presentation to the Princeton Program on Science and Global Security, April 12, 2023.
“Chinese nuclear weapons, 2023,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March 2023.
“Nuclear Weapons Ban Monitor 2022,” March 2023.
“China’s Nuclear Buildup: Projections And Observations,” briefing by Hans Kristensen to webinar organized by the Committee for a Sane U.S.-China Policy and the Campaign for Peace, Disarmament and Common Security, February 2, 2023. Briefing slides here.
“Challenges and Prospects for Further U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control,” briefing by Matt Korda (begins at 42 minutes of recording) to webinar organized by Arms Control Association, February 1, 2023.
“North Korea’s Nuclear Arsenal,” Presentation to the Bullis School, January 18, 2023.
“Why US policy on North Korea should prioritize nonproliferation, not denuclearization,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January 13, 2023.
“United States nuclear weapons, 2023,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January 2023.
“Could a Chatbot Teach You How to Build a Dirty Bomb?” Outrider, January 30, 2023.

2022

“The Long View: Strategic arms control after the New START Treaty,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November 9, 2023.
“2022 Nuclear Posture Review Force Structure Decisions,” briefing to Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation brief to Congressional staffers, November 3, 2022.
“Nuclear Weapons Operations and Risks in Europe, 2022,” briefing to PUGWASH-USPID conference Nuclear Weapons: New Risks, Castiglioncello, Italy, October 21, 2022.
Using Open-Source Intelligence to Collect Data on Global Nuclear Arsenals,” Briefing to the Nuclear Policy Working Group, October 17, 2022.
“Increased Nuclear Secrecy Makes Us All Less Safe,” Outrider, October 17, 2022.
“NATO and Russia Exercises Rattle Nuclear Swords Amid Ukraine War,” Russia Matters, October 14, 2022.
“North Korean nuclear weapons, 2022,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September 2022.
“Nuclear Arsenals and Cyber Vulnerabilities: The State of Play”, Briefing to Swedish Pugwash, September 15, 2022.
“Threats and Opportunities? Arms Control and Emerging Technologies,” Presentation to the Arms Control Negotiation Academy, August 18, 2022.
“US Missile Defence: Capabilities and Trends”, Presentation for Win Without War, August 11, 2022.
“Why did NYC’s nuclear warning fall on deaf ears?” Outrider, August 2, 2022.
“Challenging Assumptions About Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles,” Presentation to Global Zero event, “Building A Movement for Nuclear and Economic Justice,” June 29, 2022.
“Indian nuclear weapons, 2022,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July 2022.
“China’s Nuclear Weapons Modernization and US-Chinese Military Rivalry,” briefing to Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, Oslo, June 1, 2022.
“United States nuclear weapons, 2022,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May 2022.
“The Big Business of Nuclear Weapons,” Presentation to the Norwegian Peace Council, May 25, 2022.
“Joining the U.S. missile defence program would be a big mistake,” Toronto Star, May 20, 2022.
“Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons,” presentation to Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation (CACNP) Hill staff briefing, April 28, 2022. Higher resolution slides available upon request.
“The Evolution of Air and Missile Technologies”, Briefing at the NATO Integrated Air and Missile Defence Conference, 29-30 March 2022.
“China’s Nuclear Weapons Modernization,” (download slides here) briefing (virtual) to Institute of Chinese Studies Delhi seminar on China’s Nuclear Modernization and Implications for India, March 9, 2022.
“Nuclear Weapons Ban Monitor, 2021,” March 2022.
“Russian Nuclear Weapons, 2022,” Briefing to International Colloquium on Security Threats in Europe, March 4, 2022.
“Nuclear Arsenal Overviews: UK & France“, Briefing to the Odesa Winter School, February 18, 2022.
“Russian nuclear weapons, 2022,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, February 2022.
“Israeli nuclear weapons, 2022,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January 2022.

2021

“Nuclear Disarmament and Arms Control: The State of Play,” SIPRI webinar, December 14, 2021.
“Influence of the Defense Industry on US National Security Strategy,” Russia Matters, November 12,2021.
“China’s Changing Nuclear Posture,” Presentation at the Santa Fe World Affairs Forum, November 10, 2021.
“China and Russia: A Nuclear Lay of the Land,” Lecture at American University’s School of International Studies, October 20, 2021.
“Time to factor missile defence into nuclear arms control talks,” SIPRI, September 30, 2021.
“A Closer Look at the Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent,” Presentation to the Princeton Program on Science and Security, September 29, 2021.
“China’s new nuclear silo fields: Negotiating card of arms race catalyst?“, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ virtual program, September 22, 2021.
“Pakistani nuclear forces, 2021,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September 2021.
“China’s nuclear missile expansion: From minimum deterrence to medium deterrence,’ Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September 1, 2021.
“North Korean nuclear weapons, 2021,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, August 2021.
“World Nuclear Forces, 2021” in SIPRI Yearbook 2021 (Oxford University Press: July 2021), pp. 333-412.
Testimony before the US-China Economic and Security Commission on China’s Nuclear Forces, June 10, 2021.
“United Kingdom Nuclear Weapons, 2021,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May 2021.
“China’s Strategic Systems and Programs,” in James Smith and Paul Bolt (ed.), China’s Strategic Arsenal: Worldview, Doctrine, and Systems (Georgetown University Press: April 2021), pp. 93-124.
“Russian nuclear forces, 2021,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March 2021.
“Baby Nukes: When A Little Boom Is All You Need,” Things That Go Boom Podcast, March 1, 2021.
“Policymaking and Weapons of Mass Destruction,” Presentation to Girl Security, February 15, 2021.
“US nuclear forces, 2021,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January 2021.

2020

“ICBM Advocates Say US Missile Subs Are Vulnerable. It Isn’t True,” Defense One, December 10, 2020.
“Chinese nuclear forces, 2020,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, December 2020.
“USAF Plans To Expand Nuclear Bomber Bases,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November 17, 2020.
“Nuclear War in Northeast Asia: Nuclear Forces and Nuclear War Planning,” with Matthew McKinzie, briefing to Nagasaki University, November 14, 2020.
“Dangerous Developments: New Tactical Nuclear Weapons,” briefing to IPPNW (Norway), November 12, 2020.
“World Nuclear Arsenals, Modernization Programs, and Employment Doctrines and Policies,” briefing to New York State Bar Association, November 12, 2020.
“World Nuclear Arsenals, Naval Nuclear Weapons, and Challenges for Nuclear Arms Control,” briefing to Illinois University, November 4, 2020.
“Does Socioeconomic Status Affect How Young People Think About Nuclear Weapons?” UK PONI Papers, October 2020.
“Trump Is A Hypocrite, But He’s Right About The Military-Industrial Complex,” Forbes, September 10, 2020.
“Documenting Nuclear Arsenals: The Work of the Federation of American Scientists’ Nuclear Information Project,” briefing to American University, September 10, 2020.
“Democrats And Republicans Agree: Phase Out Land-Based Nuclear Missiles,” Forbes, August 12, 2020.
“Nuclear Tallies, Nuclear Trends,” Briefing to the Berkeley Nuclear Policy Working Group, April 20, 2020.
“Indian nuclear forces, 2020,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July 2020.
“World nuclear forces,” with Shannon Kile, in SIPRI Yearbook 2020 (Oxford University Press).
“Democrats May Fund Trump’s Nuclear Modernization Plan Without A Fight,” Forbes, June 30, 2020.
“The Trump Administration Is Using The Pandemic To Ignite The Arms Race,” Forbes, June 22, 2020.
“China-US-Russia Competition: Modernizations and Arms Racing,” briefing to Reaching Critical Will, June 3, 2020.
“Congress Should Hit Pause On The New Intercontinental Ballistic Missile,” Forbes, April 21, 2020.
“Nuclear Tallies, Nuclear Trends,” Lecture at Boise State University, April 20, 2020.
“The U.S. Nuclear Deterrent Is Not Prepared For Climate Catastrophe,” Forbes, March 16, 2020.
“The Humanitarian Consequences and Risks of Nuclear Weapons,” briefing to the International Committee of the Red Cross, March 2, 2020.
“Russian nuclear forces, 2020,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March 2020.
“Do Young People Care About Nuclear Weapons?” Inkstick, February 27, 2020.
“United States Nuclear Strategy: From Cold War, Nuclear Detente, to Great Power Competition, briefing to George Washington University, February 27, 2020.
“United States nuclear forces, 2020,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January 2020.
“How Young People Will Change the Direction of U.S. Foreign Policy in the New Decade,” Responsible Statecraft, January 1, 2020.

2019

“Censoring Geospatial Imagery,” Presentation at the CSIS-CNS Conference on Open-Source Analysis, December 12, 2019.
“The New START Treaty Keeps Nuclear Arsenals In Check And President Trump Must Act To Preserve It,” Forbes, December 10, 2019.
“U.S. Nuclear Weapons In Europe,” briefing to Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation luncheon for Congressional staffers, November 1, 2019.
“How an India-Pakistan nuclear war could start—and have global consequences,” with Alan Robock, Owen Brian Toon, Charles G. Bardeen, Lili Xia, Matthew McKinzie, R. J. Peterson, Cheryl S. Harrison, Nicole S. Lovenduski, and Richard P. Turco, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, October 31, 2019.
“US ballistic missile defenses, 2019,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November 2019.
“Narrowing the Policy-Academia Gap: Dialogue, Diversity, and Collaboration in Early-Career Nuclear Scholarship”, Presentation at the International Studies Association ISSS Conference, October 19, 2019.
“When Talking About Climate Change, We Can’t Forget Nuclear Weapons.” The Nation, October 14, 2019.
“Rapidly expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and global catastrophe,” Science Advances, October 2, 2019.
“We Need a Green New Deal for Nuclear Weapons,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September 11, 2019.
“Tactical nuclear weapons, 2019,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September 2019.
“In Memoriam: The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty Dies at 32.” The Nation, August 2, 2019.
“Five Questions about Nukes to Ask At the Next Debate.” Defense One, July 31, 2019.
“Chinese nuclear forces, 2019,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July 2019.
SIPRI Yearbook 2019: “Modernization of world nuclear forces continues despite overall decrease in number of warheads: New SIPRI Yearbook out now,” June 17, 2019.
“Is The Pentagon Exaggerating Russia’s Tactical Nuclear Weapons?,” Forbes, May 7, 2019.
“US nuclear forces, 2019,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May 2019.
“Let’s Get Rid of the National Security ‘Expert’“, Inkstick, April 24, 2019.
“At #Nukefest, We Asked All The Wrong Questions,” Inkstick, March 19, 2019.
“House Armed Services Committee Members Show Alarmingly Poor Knowledge On Nuclear Weapons,” Forbes, March 6, 2019.
“Russian nuclear forces, 2019,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March 2019.

2018

“INF Weapons: Status Modernizations and Arms Control Prospects,” Toda Peace Institute, Policy Brief No. 25, November 2018.
“Indian nuclear forces, 2018,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November 2018.
“Trump falls on sword for Putin’s treaty violation”, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, October 29, 2018.
“Putin Deepens Confusion About Russian Nuclear Policy”, Russia Matters, October 25, 2018.
“Pakistani nuclear forces, 2018,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September 2018.
“Chinese nuclear forces, 2018,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July 2018.
“Russian nuclear forces, 2018,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May 2018.
“United States nuclear forces, 2018,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March 2018.
“Expert Commentary: The Nuclear Posture Review and the US nuclear arsenal,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, February 2, 2018.
“B61-12 Integration on Allied Aircraft,” chapter 5 in Steve Andreasen, et al, Building a Safe, Secure, and Credible NATO Nuclear Posture, Nuclear Threat Initiative, January 2018.
“Supporting the DCA Mission,” chapter 4 in Steve Andreasen, et al, Building a Safe, Secure, and Credible NATO Nuclear Posture, Nuclear Threat Initiative, January 2018.
“B61-12 Guided Nuclear Bomb,” chapter 3 in Steve Andreasen, et al, Building a Safe, Secure, and Credible NATO Nuclear Posture, Nuclear Threat Initiative, January 2018.
“North Korean nuclear capabilities, 2018,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January 2018.

2017

“A History of US Nuclear Weapons In South Korea,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November 2017.
“Deter, don’t provoke, North Korea,” CNN, October 11, 2017.
“The Status of Nuclear Weapons: Arsenals, Modernizations, and Operations,” briefing to Pugwash-USPID conference on international security in the Trump era, Castiglioncello, Italy, September 22, 2017.
“Russian Nuclear Forces: Buildup or Modernization,” Russia Matters, September 14, 2017.
“Worldwide deployment of nuclear weapons, 2017,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September 2017.
“Trends in world nuclear forces, 2017,” with Shannon Kile, SIPRI, July 2017. Link to full PDF format.
Briefing at United Nations Nuclear Ban Treaty Conference side event in New York on status and trends in nuclear forces, June 21, 2017. Event was hosted by the Austrian delegation and organized by the Nuclear Information Resource Service (NIRS) and co-sponsored by the Physicians for Social Responsibility. Briefing slides from the event are available here.
“Alert Status of Nuclear Weapons,” briefing to George Washington University Elliott School’s Short Course on Nuclear Weapons and Related Security Issues, April 21, 2017.
“The Quest for More Useable Nuclear Weapons,” in John Borrie, Tim Caughley and Wilfred Wan (Ed.), Understanding Nuclear Weapon Risks, United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, April 2017, pp. 33-44. The report culminated in a conference with the recordings of the various presentations (mine included) available here.
“How US nuclear force modernization is undermining strategic stability: The burst-height compensating super-fuze,” with Matthew McKinzie and Theodore A. Postol, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March 1, 2017.
“Russian nuclear forces, 2017,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March 2017.
“Beyond U.S.-Russian Arms Control,” speech at the Nuclear Deterrence Summit, Washington, D.C.
“INF, New START and What Really Matters for US-Russian Nuclear Arms Control,” Russia Matters, Belfer Center, Harvard Kennedy School, February 24, 2017.
“United States nuclear forces, 2017,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January 2017.

2016

“Pakistani Nuclear Forces, 2016,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November/December 2016.
“The Growing Threat of Nuclear War and the Role of the Health Community,” World Medical Journal, Vol. 62, No. 3, October 2016. A single file copy is available here.
“Taking Stock: New START Implementation and Outlook,” briefing to Nuclear Threat Initiative, Washington, DC, August 24, 2016.
“Nuclear arsenals: Current developments, trends and capabilities” (with Matthew McKinzie), in International Review of the Red Cross, Issue 899 (The Human Cost of Nuclear Weapons).
“New START Implementation and Future: An Assessment of US Progress and Outlook,” briefing to Deep Cuts Commission workshop Restraint and Dialogue: Improving European Security and Arms Control, held at IMEMO, Moscow, June 20, 2016.
“Chinese nuclear forces, 2016,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July/August 2016.
“Trends in World Nuclear Forces, 2016,” SIPRI, June 13, 2016.
“Nuclear Modernization, Enhanced Military Capabilities, and Strategic Stability,” briefing to Arms Control Association annual meeting, Washington, D.C., June 6, 2016.
“Russian nuclear forces, 2016,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May 2015.
“United States nuclear forces, 2016,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March 2016.
“Nuclear Force Modernizations: Russia, China and the United States,” briefing to School of Policy, Government, and International Affairs, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, February 9, 2016.
“The Basics of Nuclear Weapons: Physics, Fuel Cycles, Effects and Arsenals,” briefing to Introduction to WMD Nonproliferation Course, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Washington, D.C., February 8, 2016.
“Declassified: US nuclear weapons at sea during the Cold War,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January/February 2016.

2015

“NATO Nuclear Operations: Management, Escalation, Balance of Power,” briefing to course on nuclear weapons policy and arms control, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, October 27, 2015.
“Pakistani nuclear forces, 2015,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, October 22, 2015.
“European Nuclear Forces, Operations, and Modernization,” briefing to FAS-BASIC roundtable on the state of the UK and European debates on nuclear weapons, Washington, D.C., October 15, 2015.
“Indian nuclear forces, 2015,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September 2015.
“Nuclear Weapons in NATO’s Deterrence Posture: Status Quo or Change?,” in Stefanie von Hlatky and Andreas Wenger, The Future of Extended Deterrence: The United States, NATO, and Beyond (Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, September 2015), pp. 135-151.
“The meaning of Russia’s nuclear threats,” Brookings Institution panel event, July 8, 2015.
“Chinese nuclear forces, 2015,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July 2015.
“Russian nuclear forces, 2015,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May 2015.
“Worldwide Nuclear Weapon Modernization Programs,” briefing to Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference side-event on nuclear modernizations, United Nations, New York, April 28, 2015.
“France,” chapter in Assuring Destruction Forever: 2015 EDITION, Reaching Critical Will, 2015, pp. 30-37. A copy of the chapter is available here.
“US Nuclear Deterrence Policy and Japan’s Nuclear Policy,” briefing to GENSUIKIN, Tokyo, March 6, 2015.
“China’s Nuclear Modernization: Implications for Nuclear Arms Control, US-Chinese Strategic Stability, and Asia-Pacific Security,” briefing to Center for the Promotion of Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, Japanese Institute for International Affairs (JIIA), Tokyo, March 6, 2015.
“Civilian Research of the Status of Worldwide Nuclear Forces,” briefing to the Research Center for Nuclear Weapons Abolition (RECNA), Nagasaki University, March 4, 2015.
“US nuclear forces, 2015,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March 2015.
“Counting nuclear warheads in the public interest,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January 2015.

2014

“Nuclear Deterrence, Nuclear War Planning, and Scenarios of Nuclear Conflict,” briefing (with Matthew McKinzie) to international Vienna Conference on the Humanitarian Consequences of Nuclear Weapons, Vienna, Austria, December 8, 2014.
“Nuclear Weapons in a Nutshell,” briefing to ICAN Civil Society Forum, Vienna, Austria, December 6, 2014.
“Russian and NATO Non-Strategic Nuclear Forces,” briefing to NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Preparedness for Nuclear Radiological Threats, Los Angeles, November 18, 2014.
“Israeli nuclear forces, 2014,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November 2014.
“Russian Nuclear Weapons Modernization: Status, Trends, and Implications,” briefing to Workshop on Russia Nuclear Posture and Policy, Foundation pour la Recherche Stratégique, Paris, September 29, 2014.
“Why NATO should eliminate it tactical nukes, despite Russian belligerence,” (with Adam Mount), Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September 3, 2014.
“Worldwide deployment of nuclear weapons, 2014,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September 2014.
“Slowing nuclear weapon reductions and endless nuclear weapons modernization: A challenge to the NPT,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July 2014.
“Nuclear Weapons Trends: Numbers, Owners, Locations, Modernizations,” briefing to Red Cross working group, Hague, June 16, 2014.
“Nuclear Weapons Modernization: A Threat to the NPT?,” Arms Control Today, May 2014.
“B61-12: The Guided Standoff Nuclear Bomb,” briefing to NGO side event at PREPCOM 2014, May 2, 2014.
“Nuclear Weapon Modernization Programs of Nuclear-Armed States,” briefing to NGO side event at PREPCOM 2014, May 1, 2014.
“Nuclear Weapons Modernization: A Threat to the NPT?,” Arms Control Today, May 2014.
“US Nuclear Weapons Stockpile Number Declassified: Only 309 Warheads Cut by Obama
“The B61 Family of Nuclear Bombs,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May 2014.
“Nuclear Weapons Base Visits: Accident and Incident Exercises as Confidence-Building Measures,” briefing to Workshop on Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Europe: Transparency and Confidence-Building Measures in Practice, German Institute for International and Security Affairs, Berlin, 27-28 March 2014.
“Russian nuclear forces, 2014,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March 2014.
“B61-12: NATO’s New Guided Standoff Nuclear Bomb,” briefing to the Dutch and Belgian parliament’s foreign and defense committees, January 2014.
“US nuclear forces, 2014,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January 2014.

2013

“Chinese nuclear forces, 2013,” FAS Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November 2013.
“Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control: Modernizing Nuclear Arsenals,” briefing to Nuclear Weapons Issues in the 21st Century, George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, November 2, 2013. (Warning: 10 MB file).
“Nuclear Warhead Stockpiles and Transparency” (with Robert Norris), in Global Fissile Material Report 2013, International Panel on Fissile Materials, October 2013, pp. 50-58.
“The U.S. Nuclear Posture After the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review and 2013 Nuclear Employment Strategy,” briefing to Georgetown University School of Foreign Service, September 25, 2013.
“Falling Short of Prague: Obama’s Nuclear Weapons Employment Policy,” Arms Control Today, September 2013.
“Global nuclear weapons inventories, 1945-2013,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September/October 2013.
“British nuclear stockpile, 1953-2013,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July/August 2013.
“New Nuclear Weapons Employment Guidance Puts Obama’s Fingerprint on Nuclear Weapons Policy and Strategy,” FAS Strategic Security Blog, June 20, 2013.
“De-alerting nuclear forces,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, June 19, 2013.
“World Nuclear Forces,” in SIPRI Yearbook 2013 (Oxford University Press, 2013).
“US Nuclear Policy: A Mixed Message,” The Monthly Komei (Japan), June 2013. Japanese version here.
“B61-12: America’s New Guided Standoff Nuclear Bomb,” briefing to WAND, May 30, 2013. Recording of briefing is available on YouTube.
“Russian nuclear forces, 2013,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May/June 2013.
“US nuclear forces, 2013,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March/April 2013.
“Unilateral Versus Bilateral Nuclear Reductions,” prepared remarks to CSIS PONI Debate, February 27, 2013.
Reducing Alert Rates of Nuclear Weapons, UNIDIR.

2012

“Cuban Missile Crisis: a nuclear order of battle, October and November 1962,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November/December 2012.
“U.S. Nuclear Strategy After the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review,” briefing to graduate seminar on nuclear policy at Georgetown University School of Foreign Service, October 2012.
“China’s Nuclear Forces and Potential Vulnerabilities: Potential Implications for Posture and Strategy,” briefing to Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs workshop on Mitigating U.S. and Chinese Concerns About Each Other’s Nuclear Offensive and Defense Programs, Princeton University, September 24, 2012.
“Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons, 2012,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September/October 2012.
“U.S. Nuclear Strategy After the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review,” briefing to the Public Policy and Nuclear Threats “boot camp” workshop at the University of California San Diego, August 10, 2012.
Speech: “Will Advanced Conventional Capabilities Undermine or Enhance Deterrence?,” USSTRATCOM Deterrence Symposium, Omaha, NE, August 9, 2012. Video is available here.
“Indian Nuclear Forces, 2012,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July-August 2012. See also blog here.
“Event: Conference on Using Satellite Imagery to Monitor Nuclear Forces and Proliferators,” June 7, 2012. Briefing slides are here.
“U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2012,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May-June 2012.
“FAS Report on Status and Trends of U.S. and Russian Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons,” briefing held in the U.S. Senate, May 3, 2012.
Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons, FAS, May 2012.
“France,” chapter in Assuring Destruction Forever, Reraching Critical Will, April 2012, pp. 27-33.
“Russian nuclear forces, 2012,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March-April 2012.
Briefing: Perspectives on the 2013 Budget Request and President Obama’s Guidance on the Future of the U.S. Nuclear Weapons Program, presented to the Fourth Nuclear Deterrence Summit, Arlington, VA, February 15, 2012.
“Nuclear Pursuits, 2012,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January-February 2012.

2011

“Reviewing Nuclear Guidance: Putting Obama’s Words Into Action,” Arms Control Today, November 2011.
“Chinese nuclear forces, 2011,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November/December 2011.
“British nuclear forces, 2011,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September/October 2011.
“A Presidential Policy Directive for a new nuclear path,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, August 10, 2011.
“NATO’s Posture Review and Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons,” prepared remarks for Brookings panel on NATO’s nuclear policy, July 19, 2011.
“Pakistani Nuclear Forces 2011,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July-August 2011. See also blog with briefing slide.
“B61 LEP: Increasing NATO Nuclear Capability and Precision Low-Yield Strikes.” Available as an Issue Brief.
“World nuclear forces,” SIPRI Yearbook 2011, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, June 2011.
“Russian nuclear forces, 2011,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March/April 2011.
“U.S. nuclear forces, 2011,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March/April 2011.
“Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons After the Presidential Nuclear Initiatives,” briefing to panel at Georgetown University Law Center, Washington, D.C., March 1, 2011.
“Creating Nuclear Transparency Through Science, Technology and Collaboration,” briefing to AAAS Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C., February 20, 2011.
“U.S. tactical nuclear weapons in Europe, 2011,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January/February 2011.

2010

“Maintaining and Modernizing U.S. Nuclear Delivery Vehicles,” briefing to Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Luncheon, United States Senate Visitor Center, November 19, 2010.
“Policy Responses to Nuclear Threats: Nuclear Posturing after the Cold War,” briefing to Global Threat Lector Series, International Studies Institute, University of New Mexico, November 4, 2010.
“Chinese Nuclear Forces, 2010,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November/December 2010. (PDF-version here)
“U.S. and Russian Nuclear Forces; Status and Trends in Light of Smaller and Safer Article,” briefing to Panel on Smaller and Safer Article and De-Alerting of Nuclear Weapons, United Nations, October 13, 2010.
“Indian Nuclear Forces, 2010,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September/October 2010. Now published by Sage Publications (html format / pdf format).
“NATO Nuclear Weapons Policy: Mission and Forces at the Crossroads,” briefing to IGCC Public Policy and Nuclear Threats Program, University of California, San Diego, August 4, 2010.
“Global nuclear weapons inventories, 1945-2010,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July/August 2010.
“World Nuclear Forces,” SIPRI Yearbook, June 2010.
“U.S. nuclear forces, 2010,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May-Jun 2010.
Obama and the Nuclear War Plan, Federation of American Scientists, February 2010.
“What if the Obama Administration Changes US Nuclear Policy: Potential Effects on the Strategic War Plan,” briefing to Quinnipiac University School of Law Center, February 19, 2010.
“The U.S. Nuclear Posture Review 2010: Policy and Force Structure Issues,” briefing to the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University, January 26, 2010.
“Russian nuclear forces, 2010,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January/February 2010. A facility profile is available on the FAS Strategic Security Blog.

2009

“Worldwide deployments of nuclear weapons, 2009“, Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November/December 2009. An accompanying blog is on the FAS Strategic Security Blog.
“Japan’s Nuclear Secrets,” SEKAI Magazine, Tokyo, November 2009. English version here.
“Pakistani Nuclear Forces 2009,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September/October 2009.
“U.S. Nuclear Warheads 1945-2009,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July/August 2009.
“Counter-Proliferation and U.S. Nuclear Strategy,” in David S. McDonough (ed.), US Nuclear Strategy and the Implications for Global Security (Dalhouse University: Centre for Foreign Policy Studies, 2009), pp. 13-34.
“Lots of Hedging, Little Leading: An Analysis of the Congressional Strategic Posture Commission Report,” Arms Control Today, June 2009.
“From Counterforce to Minimal Deterrence,” joint FAS-NRDC briefing to the MORS (Military Operations Online Society) Nuclear Online Workshop, May 5, 2009.
“Russian Nuclear Forces, 2009,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May/June 2009.
“Nuclear Weapons Status and Options Under a START Follow-On Agreement,” briefing to ACA meeting held at Carnegie, April 27, 2009.
From Counterforce to Minimal Deterrence: A New Nuclear Policy on the Path Toward Eliminating Nuclear Weapons, FAS/NRDC, April 8, 2009.
“U.S. Nuclear Forces 2009,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March/April 2009.
“Reviewing NATO’s Strategic Concept: Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons in Europe,” briefing to the Middle Powers Initiative Article VI Forum, Berlin, January 29, 2009.
“Nuclear U.S. and Soviet/Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles, 1959–2008,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January/February 2009.

2008

“Indian Nuclear Forces 2008,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November/December 2008.
“Trends in Nuclear Forces and Doctrine,” presentation to Pugwash conference on Strengthening the Nonproliferation Treaty, Danish Parliament, November 17, 2008.
“The Nuclear Posture of the United States,” in Magnus Eriksson and Kari M. Osland [eds.], Nuclear Weapons in the 21st Century: Old Players, New Game – New Players, Old Game (Norwegian Defence Command & Staff College/Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, Oslo, October 2008), pp. 53-66.
“Nuclear Weapons Life Extension Programs and Modifications,” presentation to strategy meeting at Union of Concerned Scientists, October 16, 2008.
“The Role of Nuclear Weapons in Counterproliferation and Global Strike Scenarios,” presentation to the workshop What Role, If Any, For Nuclear Weapons, New Mexico Nuclear Study Group, Center for Science, Technology, and Policy, University of New Mexico, September 11, 2008.
“French Nuclear Forces 2008,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September 2008.
“Chinese Nuclear Forces 2008,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July 2008.
“World Nuclear Forces 2008,”in SIPRI Yearbook 2008.
“Russian Nuclear Forces 2008,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May 2008.
“U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2008,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March/April 2008.
Toward True Security, FAS/NRDC/UCS, February 2008.

2007

2006

“Nuclear Missile Testing Galore,” FAS Strategic Security Blog, December 22, 2006.
“Where the Bombs are, 2006,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November/December 2006.
Chinese Nuclear Forces and U.S. Nuclear War Planning, FAS/NRDC, November 2006.
New and Traditional Security Threats to Russia, and the Utility of Nuclear Weapons, briefing to WSI-ISS meeting Emerging Nuclear Weapons Policies: An Opportunity to Increase Dialogue, Washington, D.C., October 12-13, 2006 (NOTE: PDF, 0.86 MB)
“Nuclear Threats: Then and Now,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September/October 2006.
“World Nuclear Forces,” in SIPRI Yearbook 2006, Swedish International Peace Research Institute, July 2006.
“U.S. National Security Strategy and Pre-emption,” Défense Nationale (France), No. 7, July 2006. (English version is free but French version requires password.)
“Global Nuclear Stockpiles, 2006,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the American Scientists, July/August 2006.
“Chinese Nuclear Forces, 2006,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the American Scientists, May/June 2006.
Global Strike: A Chronology of the Pentagon’s New Offensive Strike Plan, FAS, March 15, 2006.
“Russian Nuclear Forces, 2006,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March/April 2006.
“Chinese Nuclear Forces,” Imaging Notes, Winter 2006.
“US Nuclear Forces, 2006,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January/February, 2006.

2005

“Preparing for the Failure of Deterrence,” Royal Canadian Military Institute SITREP, Vol. 65, No. 6, November/December 2005.
“British Nuclear Forces, 2005,” Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November/December, 2005.
“New Doctrine Falls Short of Bush Pledge,” Arms Control Today, September 2005.
“Indian Nuclear Forces, 2005,” NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September/October, 2005.
“French Nuclear Forces, 2005,” NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July/August 2005.
“World Nuclear Forces,” in SIPRI Yearbook 2005, Swedish International Peace and Research Institute, Stockholm, June 7, 2005.
Nuclear Mission Creep, Briefing to Program on Science and Global Security, Princeton University, May 11, 2005.
“Who’s Keeping the Nuclear Weapons in Europe?,” armscontrolwonk.com, May 2, 2005.
“North Korea’s Nuclear Program, 2005,” NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May/June 2005.
Briefing to members of the Belgian and Dutch Parliaments on the deployment of U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe, March 1, 2005.
Briefing to members of the German Parliament (Bundestag) on the deployment of U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe, February 25, 2005.
“Russian Nuclear Forces, 2005,” NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March/April 2005.
U.S. Nuclear Weapons In Europe, Natural Resources Defense Council, February 2005.
Missions for Nuclear Weapons After the Cold War, FAS, February 28, 2005.
“U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2005,” NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January/February 2005.

2004

“U.S. Nuclear Weapons in Europe, 1954-2004,” NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November/December 2004.
“What’s Behind Bush’s Nuclear Cuts,” Arms Control Today, October 2004.
Nuclear Insecurity: A Critique of the Bush Administration’s Nuclear Weapons Policies, Natural Resources Defense Council, September 2004.
“World Nuclear Forces,” in SIPRI Yearbook 2004, Swedish International Peace Research Institute, September 2004.
“U.S. nuclear reductions,” NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, August/September 2004.
Briefing: “US Nuclear Policy and World Nuclear Situation,” presented to the 59th Gensuikin conference in Tokyo, August 1, 2004.
Briefing: “U.S. Nuclear Posture in Korea,” presented to the 59th Gensuikin conference in Tokyo, August 1, 2004.
“Russian Nuclear Forces, 2004,” NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July/August 2004.
“Too Many, Too Slow: The Bush administration’s stockpile reduction plan,” Natural Resources Defense Council, Fact Sheet, June 2004.
“U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2004,” NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May/June 2004.
“Nuclear Disclosure: A Danger to National Security?,” PRIME No. 19, (PRIME, International Peace Research Institute, Meiji Gakuin University, Tokyo), March 2004 (see PDF-version).
“The Protection Paradox,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March/April 2004.
“Dismantling U.S. Nuclear Warheads,” NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January/February 2004.

2003

“Chinese Nuclear Forces, 2003,” NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November/December 2003.
“Nuclear Pursuits,” NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September/October 2003.
“Russian Nuclear Forces, 2003,” NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July/August 2003.
“World Nuclear Forces as of January 2003,” in SIPRI Yearbook 2004, Swedish International Peace Research Institute, July 2003. (Full pdf-version available here).
“U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2003,” NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May/June 2003.
“North Korea’s Nuclear Program, 2003,” NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March/April 2003.
Changing Targets II, Greenpeace International, April 2003.
“The B61 Family of Bombs,” NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January/February 2003.

2002

“Global Nuclear Stockpiles, 1945-2002,” NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November/December 2002.
“Israeli Nuclear Forces, 2002,” NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September/October 2002.
“Preemptive Posturing,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September/October 2002.
“Russian Nuclear Forces, 2002,” NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July/August 2002.
“Nuclear arms agreement is step backward,” Oakland Tribune, May 26, 2002.
“U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2002,” NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, May/June 2002.
“India’s Nuclear Forces, 2002,” NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March/April 2002.
“Pakistan’s Nuclear Forces, 2001,” NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, January/February 2002.

2001

“British Nuclear Forces, 2001,” NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November/December 2001.
“The Unruly Hedge: Cold War Thinking at the Crawford Summit,” Arms Control Today, December 2001.
“Chinese Nuclear Forces, 2001,” NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September/October 2001.
“French Nuclear Forces, 2001,” NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July/August 2001.
“U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2001,” NRDC Nuclear Notebook, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March/April 2001.
The Matrix of Deterrence: U.S. Strategic Command Force Structure Studies, The Nautilus Institute, Berkeley, CA, May 2001.

2000 and Earlier

U.S. Nuclear Strategy Reform in the 1990s, The Nautilus Institute, Berkeley, CA, March 2000. This report was also translated and published by the International Peace Research Institute at the Meiji Gakuin University in Tokyo.
“Secrecy on a Sliding Scale,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, November/December 1999, p. 33.
“NATO Nuclear Policy: Back To The Future,” The Monitor, Center for International Trade and Security, University of Georgia, September 1999.
Japan Under the Nuclear Umbrella: U.S. Nuclear Weapons and Nuclear War Planning in Japan During the Cold War, The Nautilus Institute, Berkeley, CA, July 1999.
The Post Cold War SIOP and Nuclear Warfare Planning: A Glossary, Abbreviations, and Acronyms, Natural Resources Defense Council, Washington, DC, January 1999.
“Dangerous Directions,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March/April 1998.
Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction and U.S. Nuclear Strategy, British American Security Information Council (BASIC), Washington, DC, March 1998.
“Targets of Opportunity,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September/October 1997.
“The USA and Counter-Proliferation: A New and Dubious Role for U.S. Nuclear Weapons,” Security Dialogue, Oslo, Norway, December 1996.
The 520 Forgotten Bombs: How U.S. and British Nuclear Weapons in Europe Undermine the Non-Proliferation Treaty, Greenpeace International, April 18, 1995.
Changing Targets: Nuclear Doctrine from the Cold to the Third World, Greenpeace International, March 1, 1995.
Aircraft Carriers: The Limits of Nuclear Power, Neptune Papers No. 7, Greenpeace, Washington, D.C., June 1994 (pdf 1.9 MB).
U.S. Naval Nuclear Weapons in Sweden, Neptune Papers No. 6, Greenpeace, Washington, D.C., October 1990 (pdf 3.4 MB).
William M. Arkin and Joshua Handler, Naval Accidents 1945-1988, Neptune Papers No. 3, Greenpeace/Institute for Policy Studies, June 1989 (0.6 MB).

publications

See all publications

Global Risk

Report

Inspections Without Inspectors: A Path Forward for Nuclear Arms Control Verification with “Cooperative Technical Means”

This report outlines a framework relying on “Cooperative Technical Means” for effective arms control verification based on remote sensing, avoiding on-site inspections but maintaining a level of transparency that allows for immediate detection of changes in nuclear posture or a significant build-up above agreed limits.

11.10.25 | 3 min read

Global Risk

Press release

FAS Receives $500k Grant On Emerging Disruptive Technologies and Mobile Nuclear Launch Systems

The grant comes from the Carnegie Corporation of New York (CCNY) to investigate, alongside The British American Security Information Council (BASIC), the associated impact on nuclear stability.

11.06.25 | 3 min read

Global Risk

Blog

Incomplete Upgrades at RAF Lakenheath Raise Questions About Suspected US Nuclear Deployment

Satellite imagery of RAF Lakenheath reveals new construction of a security perimeter around ten protective aircraft shelters in the designated nuclear area, the latest measure in a series of upgrades as the base prepares for the ability to store U.S. nuclear weapons.

10.10.25 | 8 min read

Global Risk

Report

Avoiding Nuclear Danger in Northeast Asia

It will take consistent leadership and action to navigate the complex dangers in the region and to avoid what many analysts considered to be an increasingly possible outcome, a nuclear conflict in East Asia.

10.07.25 | 19 min read