Using Pull Finance for Market-driven Infrastructure and Asset Resilience

The incoming administration should establish a $500 million pull-financing facility to ensure infrastructure and asset resiliency with partner nations by catalyzing the private sector to develop cutting-edge technologies. The increasing frequency of extreme weather events, which caused over $200 billion in global economic losses in 2023, is disrupting global supply chains and exacerbating migration pressures, particularly for the U.S. Investing in climate resilience abroad offers a significant opportunity for U.S. businesses in technology, engineering, and infrastructure, while also supporting job creation at home. 

Pull-finance mechanisms can maximize the efficiency and impact of U.S. investments, fostering innovation and driving sustainable solutions to address global vulnerabilities. Unlike traditional funding which second-guesses the markets by supporting only selected innovators, pull financing drives results by relying on the market to efficiently allocate resources to achievement, fostering competition and rewarding the most impactful solutions. Managed and steered by the U.S. government, the pull-financing facility would fund infrastructure and asset resiliency results delivered by the world’s cutting-edge innovators, mitigating the effects of extreme weather events and ultimately supporting U.S. interests abroad. 

Challenge and Opportunity 

The increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events pose significant risks to global economic stability, with direct implications for U.S. interests. In 2023 alone, natural disasters caused over $200 billion in global economic losses with much of the damage concentrated in regions critical to global supply chains. U.S. businesses that depend on these supply chains face rising costs and disruptions, which translate into higher costs for U.S. businesses and consumers, undermining economic competitiveness.

Beyond the economic dimension, these vulnerabilities exacerbate socio-political pressures. Climate-induced displacement is accelerating, with 32.6 million people internally displaced by disasters in 2022. Most displaced individuals that cross borders migrate to countries neighboring their own, which are ill-equipped to handle the influx, often further destabilizing fragile states. For the U.S., this translates into increased migration pressures at its southern border, where natural disasters are already a driving force behind migration from Central America. Addressing these root causes through proactive resiliency investments abroad would reduce long-term strain on the U.S. and bolster stability in strategically important regions.

In addition to economic and social risks, resilience is now a key front in global competition. The People’s Republic of China has rapidly expanded its influence in developing nations through initiatives like the Belt and Road, financing over $200 billion in energy and infrastructure projects since 2013. A significant portion of these projects focus on resiliency investments, enabling China to position itself as a partner of choice for nations with asset and infrastructure exposure. This growing influence comes at the expense of U.S. global leadership.

In the context of these challenges, it is especially concerning that much of the U.S.’s existing spending may not be achieving the results it could. A recent audit of USAID climate initiatives highlights concerns around limited transparency and effectiveness in its development funding. The inefficient use of this funding is leaving opportunities on the table for U.S. businesses and workers. Global investments in adaptation and resiliency are projected to reach $500 billion annually by 2050. Resilience projects abroad could open substantial markets for American engineering, technology, and infrastructure firms. For instance, U.S.-based companies specializing in resilient agriculture, flood defense systems, advanced irrigation technologies, and energy infrastructure stand to benefit from increased demand. Domestically, the manufacturing and export of these solutions could generate significant economic activity, supporting high-quality jobs and revitalizing industrial sectors.

Pull finance presents an opportunity to increase the cost effectiveness of resiliency funding—and ensure this funding achieves U.S. interests. Pull finance mechanisms like results-based financing and Advance Market Commitments (AMC) reward successful solutions that meet specific criteria, promoting private sector engagement and market-driven problem-solving. Unlike traditional “push” financing, which funds chosen teams or projects directly, pull financing sets a goal and allows any innovator who reaches it to claim the reward, fostering      competitive problem-solving without pre-selected winners. This approach includes various mechanisms – such as prize challenges, milestone payments, advance market commitments, and subscription models – each suited to different issues and industries.

Pull financing is particularly effective for addressing complex challenges with unclear or emerging solutions, or in areas with limited commercial incentives. It has proven successful in various contexts, such as the first Trump Administration’s rapid development of COVID-19 vaccines through Operation Warp Speed and GAVI’s introduction of the pneumococcal vaccine in low-income countries. These initiatives highlight how pull financing can stimulate breakthrough innovations that efficiently address immediate needs in collaboration with private actors through effective incentives.  

Pull finance can be used to efficiently advance infrastructure and asset resilience goals while also providing opportunities for U.S. innovators and industry. By stimulating demand for critically needed technologies for development like resilient seeds and energy storage solutions, as detailed in Box 1, well-designed pull finance would help link U.S. technology innovators to addressing needs of U.S. partners. As such, pull finance can play a critical role in positioning the U.S. as a partner of first choice for countries seeking to access U.S. innovation to meet resilience needs.

What would the design of a pull financing mechanism look like in practice?  

Resilient Seeds

Agriculture in Africa is highly susceptible to extreme weather events, with limited adoption of effective farming technologies. Developing new seed varieties capable of withstanding these events and optimizing resource use has the potential to yield significant societal benefits.

While push financing can support the development of resource-efficient and productive seeds, it often lacks the ability to ensure they meet essential quality standards, like flavor and appearance, and are user-friendly across farming, transport and marketing stages. In contrast, pull financing can effectively incentivize private sector innovation across all critical dimensions, including end-user take-up. 

A pull mechanism for resilient seeds, using a milestone payment mechanism, could cover a portion of R&D costs initially, with additional payments tied to successful lab trials. Depending on the obstacles to scaling – whether they arise from the innovator/distributor side or the farmer side – a small per-user payment to the innovator or per-user subsidy could help sustain market demand.

The design and scale of a pull financing mechanism to promote the rollout of new seeds and crop varieties will largely depend on the market readiness of the various seed types involved. Establishing effective pull mechanisms for seed development is estimated to cost between $50 million and $100 million, aiming for significant outreach to farmers. Along with supporting improved livelihoods for farmers, this small investment would open opportunities for U.S. technology innovators and companies. 

Pull Finance Initiative for Infrastructure and Asset Resiliency in the Caribbean

The Caribbean is one of the regions most vulnerable to extreme weather events, making it critical to engage the private sector in developing and adopting technologies suited to Small Island Developing States (SIDS). Challenges such as limited demand and high costs hinder innovation and investment in these small markets, leaving key areas like agriculture and access underserved. Overcoming these market failures requires innovative approaches to create sustainable incentives for private sector involvement.

Pull finances offers a promising solution to drive resiliency in SIDS. By tying payments to measurable outcomes, this approach will incentivize the development and deployment of technologies that might otherwise remain inaccessible. 

For example, pull finance could be used to stimulate the creation of energy storage solutions designed to withstand extreme weather conditions in remote areas. This could be help address the critical needs of SIDS’ such as Guyana which face energy security challenges linked to extreme weather conditions, especially in remote and dispersed areas. Energy storage technologies exist, but companies are not motivated to invest in tailored innovation for local needs because end-users cannot pay prices that compensate for innovation efforts. Pull finance could address this by committing to purchase an amount large enough that nudges companies to develop a tailored product, without raising market prices. Success would require partnerships with local SMEs, caps in installation costs, and specifications on storage capacity, along with relevant technology partners such as those in the U.S.. This approach would support immediate adaptation needs and lay the foundation for sustainable, market-driven solutions that ensure long-term resilience for SIDS.

Plan of Action 

The new administration should establish a dedicated pull-financing facility to accelerate the scale-up and deployment of development solutions with partner nations. In line with other major U.S. climate initiatives, this facility could be managed by USAID’s Bureau for Resilience, Environment and Food Security (REFS), with significant support from USAID’s Innovation, Technology, and Research (ITR) Hub, in partnership with the U.S. Department of State. By leveraging USAID’s deep expertise in development and SPEC’s strategic diplomacy, this collaboration would ensure the facility addresses LMIC-specific needs while aligning with broader U.S. objectives.

The recent audit of USAID climate initiatives referenced above highlights concerns on the limited transparency and effectiveness in its climate funding. Thus, we recommend that USAID assesses the impact of its climate spending under the 2020-2024 administration and reallocates a portion of funds from less effective or stalled initiatives to this new facility. We recognize that it may be challenging to quickly identify $500 million in underperforming projects to close and reassign. Therefore, in addition to reallocating existing resources, we strongly recommend appealing to new funding for this initiative. This approach will ensure the new facility has the financial backing it needs to drive meaningful outcomes. Additional resources could also be sourced from large multilateral organizations such as the World Bank.

To enhance the facility’s impact, we recommend the active participation of agencies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOOA), particularly through the Climate and Societal Interactions Division (CSI)   in the Steering Committee,

We propose that this facility draw on the example of the UK’s planned Climate Innovation Pull Facility (CIPF), a £185 million fund which aims to fund development-relevant pull finance projects in LMICs such as those proposed by the Center for Global Development and Instiglio. This can be achieved through the following steps:

Recommendation 1. Establish the pull-finance facility, governance and administration with an initial tranche of $500 million. 

The initiative proposes establishing a pull-finance facility with an initial fund of $500 million. This facility will be overseen by a steering board chaired by USAID and comprising senior representatives from USAID, the State Department, NOOA , which will set the strategic direction and make final project selections. 

A facility management team, led by USAID, will be responsible for ensuring the successful implementation of the facility, including the selection and delivery of 8 to 16 projects. The final number of projects will depend on the launch readiness of prioritized technologies and their potential impact, with the selection process guided by criteria that align with the facility’s strategic goals. The facility management team will also be responsible for contracting with project and evaluation partners, compliance with regulations, risk management, monitoring and evaluation, as well as payouts. Additionally, the facility management team will provide incubation support for selected initiatives, including technical consultations, financial modeling, contracting expertise, and feasibility assessments.

Designing pull financing mechanisms is complex and requires input from specialized experts, including scientists, economists, and legal advisors, to identify suitable market gaps and targets. An independent Technical Advisory Group (TAG) led by USAID and comprised of such experts should be established to provide technical guidance and quality assurance. The TAG will identify priority resilience topics, such as reducing crop-residue burning or developing resilient crops. It will also focus on sectors where the U.S. can enhance its global competitiveness, which faces high upfront costs and risks. Additionally, the TAG will be responsible for technical review and recommendations of the shortlisted project proposals to inform final selection, as well as provide general advice and challenge to the facility management team and steering board.

We suggest starting with $500 million as the minimum required to be credible and relevant as well as responsive to the scale of global need. Further, experience shows that pull mechanisms need to be of sufficient scale to sustainably shift markets. For instance, GAVI’s pneumococcal vaccine AMC entailed a $1.5 billion commitment and Frontier’s carbon capture AMC likewise entails over $1 billion in commitments.  

Recommendation 2. Set up a performance management system to measure, assess and ensure impact.

The U.S. pull financing facility will implement a robust monitoring, evaluation, and learning (MEL) framework to track and enhance its impact and drive ongoing improvement through feedback and learning. 

The facility manager will develop a logical framework (logframe) that includes key performance indicators (KPIs) and a progress and risk dashboard to track monthly performance. These tools will enable effective monitoring of progress, assessment of impact, and proactive risk management, allowing for quick responses to unexpected challenges or underperformance.

Monthly check-ins with an independent evaluation partner, along with oversight from a dedicated MEL committee, will ensure consistent and rigorous evaluation as well as continuous learning. Additionally, knowledge management and dissemination activities will facilitate the sharing of insights and best practices across the program.

Recommendation 3. Establish a knowledge management hub to facilitate the sharing of results and insights and ensure coordination across pull-financing projects. 

The hub will work closely with community partners and stakeholders – such as industry and tech leaders and manufacturers – in areas like resiliency-focused finance and innovation to build strong support and develop resources on essential topics, including the effectiveness of pull financing and optimal design strategies. Additionally, the hub will promote collaboration across projects focused on similar technological and production advancements, generating synergies that enhance their collective impact and benefits.

Once the proof of concept is established through clear evidence and learning, the facility will likely secure further stakeholder buy-in and attract additional funding for a scale up phase covering a larger portfolio of projects. 

Conclusion 

The federal government should establish a $500 million pull-financing facility to accelerate technologies for resilience in the face of growing development challenges. This initiative will unlock high-return investments and increase cost effectiveness of resiliency spending, driving economic and geopolitical goals. Managed and steered by USAID and the State Department, with support from NOOA, the facility would foster breakthroughs in critical areas like resilient infrastructure, energy, and technology, benefiting both U.S. businesses and our international partners. By investing strategically, the U.S. can ensure both national and global stability.

The authors thank FAS for the reviews and feedback, along with Ranil Dissanayake, Florence Oberholtzer, and Laura Mejia Villada for their valuable contribution to this piece.

This action-ready policy memo is part of Day One 2025 — our effort to bring forward bold policy ideas, grounded in science and evidence, that can tackle the country’s biggest challenges and bring us closer to the prosperous, equitable and safe future that we all hope for whoever takes office in 2025 and beyond.

PLEASE NOTE (February 2025): Since publication several government websites have been taken offline. We apologize for any broken links to once accessible public data.

Frequently Asked Questions
What are some of the main constraints to pull financing and how can they be overcome?

Pull financing mechanisms, such as prize competitions, milestone payments, and Advanced Market Commitments (AMCs) often face regulatory and legal challenges due to their dependency on successful outcomes for funding disbursement (CGD, 2021; CGD, 2023). First, it can make cashflow management challenging as federal law requires that legally binding financial commitments be made if the necessary appropriated funds are available, resulting in upfront scoring of costs, even if the actual expenditures occur years later. The uncertainty surrounding innovation and payouts can also create risk aversion, as most funding accounts are not “no-year” accounts, meaning committed funds can expire if competition goals are unmet within the designated timeframe.


To mitigate these constraints, agencies can use budgetary workarounds like no-year appropriations, allowing them to reallocate de-obligated funds from canceled competitions to new initiatives. Other options include employing credit-type scoring to discount costs based on the likelihood of non-payment and making non-legally binding commitments backed by third parties, such as international institutions, to avoid these challenges altogether.

What is the expected timeline for the establishment and cost breakdown for this fund?

The entire fund is expected to span a maximum of five () years. The initial 12 months will concentrate on identifying eight (8) to 16 projects through comprehensive due diligence and providing incubation support. In the subsequent four (4) years, the focus will shift to project delivery.

How is this initiative different from existing U.S. initiatives such as USAID’s Climate Finance for Development Accelerator (CFDA)?

In contrast to the traditional push-funding approach of the CFDA program, our proposed pull-finance initiative introduces a unique market-shaping component aimed at driving key infrastructure and resilience solutions to fruition. In contrast to CFDA, pull finance addresses demand-side risks by providing demand-side guarantees of a future market for the technology or solution. It also mitigates R&D risk by combining incentives for research and development, ensuring that a viable market exists once the technology is developed. This approach helps accelerate market creation and innovation in high-risk, high-innovation sectors where demand or technological maturity is uncertain.

The U.S. Needs to Build More Houses in Future Receiving Cities

After a 50-year population boom, migration to the Sun Belt is skidding to a halt. Instead, the scorching heat and devastating storms increasingly common across the southern (and coastal) United States are prompting Americans to consider moving to more geographically resilient regions. New America estimates that 20 million Americans will relocate in the coming decades to escape extreme heat, drought, sea-level rise and natural disasters such as tropical storms, flooding, and wildfires. Many of them are likely to end up in “Receiving Cities” in the Midwest, Northeast, and the northern Great Plains.

Many anticipated “Receiving Cities” – places like Cincinnati, Duluth, Buffalo and Detroit – could benefit from the economic stimulus and revitalization that often accompany population inflows. These cities have a large carrying capacity but have suffered from deindustrialization, disinvestment, and population outflows in the last half century.

Yet at present, many Receiving Cities aren’t positioned to support an influx of residents. The rapid and unplanned arrival of transplants could overwhelm housing supply (which is already in shortfall across much of the country), increase housing insecurity and displacement, and place additional stress on federal and local rental and homeowner assistance programs, legal aid clinics, and other housing-related services. 

Because weather-related migration is not presently occurring en masse, the new administration has an opportunity to (i) increase the preparedness and socioeconomic appeal of Receiving Cities, in large part through production and preservation of housing for all income levels; and then (ii) encourage and support American households in relocating to these communities. The federal government should designate “Receiving Cities” to which it will allocate funds and tax incentives aimed at producing and preserving affordable housing, in anticipation of population inflows. 

Challenge and Opportunity

How will the Sun Belt Exodus Unfold?

Over the last 50 years, Florida, Texas, Arizona, and other Sun Belt states have experienced a boom of residents seeking affordable housing, low taxes, and balmy weather. These population inflows have had a significant positive impact on local economies by creating jobs, boosting housing markets, and stimulating small businesses. 

Yet extreme weather and natural disasters are starting to reverse this trend. A study published in July 2024 by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco shows that the U.S. population is starting to migrate away from areas increasingly exposed to extreme heat toward historically colder areas, which are becoming more attractive as extreme cold days become increasingly rare. Meanwhile, analysis from First Street Foundation suggests that 3.2 million Americans have already relocated from areas with high flood risk. As extreme weather events become more frequent and severe, and as Southern cities become hotter, New America estimates that 20 million Americans will relocate by 2100. 

As Americans move, however, many are relocating to nearby communities that are often no less vulnerable than the ones they had left. A report from Rice University on government buyouts of flood-prone houses, for example, found that 58 percent of participating homeowners relocated within a 10-mile drive of their previous property. And, even as some Americans are leaving the Sun Belt, others are continuing to move there. Census Bureau data from 2023 shows that 11 of the 15 fastest-growing cities in the U.S. are located in Arizona, Texas, and Florida: states at increasing risk of various natural hazards, including sea-level rise, extreme heat, drought, flooding, and tropical storms.

Alongside negative effects on physical safety and quality of life, decisions to remain in geographically vulnerable areas have major economic consequences for residents, local and state governments, and the federal government. Residents and local governments risk hundreds of billions of dollars in financial losses from property damage and lost local tax revenues. State and regional actors increase the fallout of an all-but-certain collapse of real estate, mortgage lending, and homeowners insurance markets. Additionally, the federal government faces multi-billion dollar losses each year from post-disaster assistance payouts and from administering the already-insolvent National Flood Insurance Program. 

In order to minimize these losses, the U.S. must support the steady relocation of American households to more geographically resilient regions, including the Midwest, Northeast, and the northern Great Plains. And it must ensure that “Receiving Cities” in these regions have the housing and infrastructure to support and benefit from population inflows – just as Sun Belt metros have over the last half century – without displacing existing residents.

An Opportunity for Receiving Cities 

For many Receiving Cities, transplants from the Sun Belt and elsewhere offer a chance for socioeconomic revitalization and growth. Population increases can boost demand for goods and services, fill gaps in the local labor market, and increase the municipal tax base. Transplants will bring a diverse range of professional experience, skills, and educational backgrounds that can complement the existing workforce within their new community.

But without additional investment, many of these cities are unprepared to absorb population inflows. Post-industrial cities in the Midwest and Northeast theoretically possess the urban carrying capacity to accommodate new residents, but have persistently underinvested in housing, along with other community needs. For instance, Detroit, with its thousands of vacant and abandoned buildings, was actually short 24,000 habitable homes after blight was taken into account, according to a 2020 study from the University of Michigan. Similarly, a 2022 report from Duluth, Minnesota, often cited as the most geographically resilient city in the U.S., shows that the community requires 2,400 additional units to keep pace with its current rate of growth.

Consequently, the rapid and unplanned arrival of transplants in receiving cities could possibly overwhelm a local housing sector, exacerbate unaffordability, displacement, and homelessness, and place additional stress on rental and homeowner assistance programs, legal aid clinics, and other housing-related services. Recent experience in Chico, California is emblematic: following sudden population growth due to the 2018 Camp Fire, housing prices in Chico increased 21 percent while many Housing Choice Voucher beneficiaries struggled to find rentals. Smaller and mid-sized municipalities can especially struggle with the abrupt arrival of many displaced persons or transplants. A shortfall of financial and technical resources creates barriers to preparedness, and many local governments do not possess the staffing and expertise to access the federal funding and professional assistance that is crucial for planning.

Access to affordable and quality housing will be foundational for any successful revitalization or growth. Through a Receiving Cities Housing Program, the U.S. government can support future receiving cities to prepare local housing markets for expected population increases due to weather change. As this population movement is not presently occurring en masse, there is opportunity for the incoming administration to (i) help increase the preparedness and socioeconomic appeal of future receiving cities, in large part through production and preservation of affordable housing; and then (ii) encourage and support American households in relocating in the near future to receiving cities, in order to increase individual, community, and national resilience.

Burdens for unprepared communities

Although out of scope for this memo, it is worth mentioning that without proper planning, large population inflows could also place increased strain on existing infrastructure and public services in receiving communities, including health care, transportation, education, water and sanitation, electricity, and waste management. Unprepared localities may experience new or additional challenges in basic amenity provision, service disruptions, and/or increased cost of living for both newcomers and long-time residents as a result.

Plan of Action

Upon taking office, the President should sign an Executive Order to boost housing supply nationwide, with a focus on housing supply in Receiving Cities via a Receiving Cities Housing Program. The Executive Order will establish an Interagency Policy Committee (IPC) focused on housing risk reduction in Receiving Cities, stewarded by the Domestic Policy Council or the National Economic Council.

In parallel, the new administration must work to frame domestic relocation and the Receiving Cities Housing Program as an opportunity instead of a crisis or burden. American viewpoints are evolving on weather and disaster-related relocation, previously a political and social “third rail.” A 2021 survey found that 57 percent of participants believed climate change will force them to consider a move in the next decade. According to a similar survey from the real estate firm Redfin in 2021, nearly half of respondents that planned to relocate in the next year cited climate change as a deciding factor. 

To further depoliticize weather-related migration, the President should publicly position extreme weather as a risk to be managed similar to cyber risk and national security risk. He could do so in a speech to the American people and to Congress, such as the 2025 State of the Union. The President can also direct their Communications Director and Press Secretary, along with relevant agencies such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), to communicate on the risks to households of remaining in vulnerable regions, and of the Receiving Cities Housing Program as a tool for revitalization and economic growth.

Overall, the Receiving Cities Housing Program should be guided by the following recommendations:

Recommendation 1. Expand federally supported research and data collection on geographic resilience, weather-related migration projections, and urban carrying capacity to inform designation of “Receiving Cities.”

Improved understanding of (i) geographic resilience; (ii) likely domestic weather-related relocation patterns; and (iii) urban carrying capacity is essential for informed and data-driven decision-making regarding the designation of “Receiving Cities.” The Executive Order should: 

Recommendation 2. Designate a set of “Receiving Cities” based on clearly articulated criteria and in consultation with prospective Receiving Cities.

The Receiving Cities Housing Program must consider geographic resilience, projected demographic growth, and urban carrying capacity (including potential carrying capacity of adjacent federal lands) during its selection process. Criteria should include a desire from the Receiving City to be included in the program. In order to ensure buy-in, potential Receiving Cities should also tangibly demonstrate a long-term commitment to affordable housing development, resilient urban planning, and socioeconomic equity amid weather-related migration. The IPC should develop and announce a set of measurable housing-related preconditions for designation of a city as a “Receiving City.” Program requirements could include, but is not limited to:

Recommendation 3. Develop a Receiving Cities Housing Program that supports production and preservation of affordable housing in designated “Receiving Cities.”

Once the Receiving Cities Housing Program selects participant cities, it must support these communities to (a) build new units, via a New Home Program, and (b) rehabilitate and preserve existing units, via a Home Restoration Program.

The Receiving Cities New Homes Program will include the following assistance:

The Receiving Cities Home Restoration Program will be responsible for making older and vacant homes market-ready, and will include the following assistance:

Recommendation 4. Secure long-term federal financing for the Receiving Cities Housing Program.

Major legislation such as the American Rescue Plan Act, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) demonstrate that the federal government can direct significant and flexible resources towards adaptation and resilience. Prioritization of these needs must continue via the Receiving Cities Housing Program, as effective preparation in receiving cities for weather-related migration is a long-term effort.

Concurrently, IPC member agencies should coordinate with relevant federal financing departments, agencies, and offices to increase funding for the production and preservation of affordable housing in designated “Receiving Cities,” with the following actions:

Recommendation 5. Create a pilot program that offers incentives for American households to relocate from high-risk areas to “Receiving Cities.”

As a supplement to the Receiving Cities Housing Program, HUD, in collaboration with FEMA and DOT, should pilot a resilient relocation program that provides tax breaks, housing vouchers, and/or direct payouts for households to relocate to Receiving Cities. The pilot could also incorporate workforce training or reskilling programs. 

At the local, state, and federal level, there are existing programs that provide incentives or support for people to relocate, such as Tulsa Remote; the ThinkVermont Innovation Initiative; and the Biden Administration’s recently established WelcomeCorps. A similar federal initiative for weather-related migration should leverage knowledge and expertise from existing programs. 

Conclusion

Led by the incoming administration, a new Receiving Cities Housing Program should incorporate a whole-of-government approach and emphasize coordination with local leaders, civil society, and the private sector. Implementation of this program will help provide projected receiving cities with increased resources to plan for and receive new arrivals, and also ensure that relocation to geographically resilient regions is a logical and appealing choice for Americans voluntarily relocating in part or whole due to weather.

Ultimately, with sufficient planning, technical assistance, resource allocation, and communications, the federal government can shape weather-related migration into an opportunity for economic revitalization and growth in geographically resilient communities, and also ensure equitable and high quality-of-life for both new arrival and long-time residents.

This action-ready policy memo is part of Day One 2025 — our effort to bring forward bold policy ideas, grounded in science and evidence, that can tackle the country’s biggest challenges and bring us closer to the prosperous, equitable and safe future that we all hope for whoever takes office in 2025 and beyond.

PLEASE NOTE (February 2025): Since publication several government websites have been taken offline. We apologize for any broken links to once accessible public data.

Frequently Asked Questions
What is a receiving community?

Broadly, a “receiving community” is any U.S. community that receives an influx of new residents due to weather-related migration. Some receiving communities are labeled as “geographically resilient,” which means that they are towns and cities in relatively less geographically vulnerable parts of the U.S.

When will most weather-related transplants move?

Despite broad consensus that climate change will result in greater displacement and migration in the U.S., it is difficult to determine a “tipping point” for very large population movements. Several scholars and journalists believe that the indirect economic impacts of natural disasters will spur a mass movement. Within this century, negative effects on sectors such as construction and real estate, manufacturing, tourism and recreation, and agriculture could lead to economic downturns, job loss, and then migration. At the same time, in many geographically vulnerable regions, the lack of access to traditional 30-year mortgages, increasingly unaffordable or unavailable homeowners insurance, or unsustainable repair costs following repeat disasters may cause real estate prices to crash and convince Americans to relocate.

How many Americans will become weather-related transplants?

Estimates vary widely on the number of future weather-related transplants in the U.S., and are often contingent on specific geographies or natural hazards. Research from the University of Southern California, for example, projects that sea-level rise alone will displace 13 million people in the country by 2100. Another study suggests that one in 12 residents from the U.S. South will relocate towards California, the Rockies, or the Pacific Northwest. Yet another academic article predicts that geographically resilient cities in the Northwest and Northeast should expect to grow in population by roughly 10 percent. Findings from the First Street Foundation indicate that 3 million Americans have already relocated due to increased flooding and flood risk.


Larger estimates also exist: Tulane University professor Jesse Keenan has predicted that 50 million Americans could relocate due to climate change. Reporter Abrahm Lustgarten writes that as many as 1-in-2 Americans, or approximately 162 million people, could eventually move due to natural disasters and environmental degradation.

Why does the U.S. federal government need to designate “Receiving Cities?”

For the last several years, New America has studied the dynamics of domestic weather-related migration, including the reasons why so many Americans are actively moving into vulnerable areas and also why those displaced by natural hazards often relocate to communities no less vulnerable than the places left behind. In part, we discern an oversimplified narrative that presents coastal regions of the United States as dangerous and inland areas as safe. Yet, as the impact of Hurricane Helene in western North Carolina demonstrates, this misinformation has the potential to threaten the well-being of millions of Americans and hampers adaptation efforts. Instead of relying on the media, the real estate sector, and others to designate geographically resilient cities, the federal government and its partners must leverage the resources and expertise at their disposal to designate “receiving cities” through rigorous quantitative analysis.

Federation of American Scientists (FAS) Celebrates 2nd Anniversary of the Inflation Reduction Act

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is the largest climate investment in history. FAS scientists offer policy ideas to maximize the impacts of this investment on U.S. competitiveness, energy security, resilience, and more.

Washington, D.C. – August 16, 2024 – The Federation of American Scientists (FAS), the non-partisan, nonprofit science think tank dedicated to using evidence-based science for the public good, is celebrating the two-year anniversary of the signing of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) by sharing policy ideas to drive continued successful implementation of this landmark legislation.

The IRA is a United States federal law which aims to reduce the federal government budget deficit, lower prescription drug prices, and invest in domestic energy production while promoting clean energy. It was passed by the 117th United States Congress and it was signed into law by President Biden on August 16, 2022. The IRA has catalyzed $265 billion in new clean energy investments and created hundreds of thousands of jobs in the United States, putting us on a path to achieving climate goals while boosting the economy. 

“In just two years, the Inflation Reduction Act has driven down costs of energy and transportation for everyday Americans while reining in catastrophic climate change” says Hannah Safford, Associate Director of Climate and Environment. “This legislation proves that when we invest in a better future, everyone wins.”

“The IRA enables the country to move toward ambitious climate goals. We already see the effects with new policy proposal ideas that could supercharge pursuit of these goals,” says Kelly Fleming, Associate Director of Clean Energy. “The Department of Energy finds that with the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, we can double the share of clean electricity generation to 80% in 2030.”

FAS, one of the country’s oldest science policy organizations, works with scientists and technologists to propose policy-ready ideas to address current and emerging threats, including climate change and energy insecurity.  

On today’s two-year anniversary of the IRA, FAS is highlighting policy proposals that build on the IRA’s successes to date and suggest opportunities for continued impact. Examples include:

Geothermal 

Geothermal technologies became eligible for tax credits under IRA.

Breaking Ground on Next-Generation Geothermal Energy The Department of Energy (DOE) could take a number of different approaches to accelerating progress in next-generation geothermal energy, from leasing agency land for project development to providing milestone payments for the costly drilling phases of development.

Low-Carbon Cement 

The IRA provides $4.5B to support government procurement of low-carbon  versions of this cornerstone material.

Laying the Foundation for the Low-Carbon Cement and Concrete Industry Cement and concrete production is one of the hardest industries to decarbonize. Using its Other Transactions Authority, DOE could design a demand-support program involving double-sided auctions, contracts for difference, or price and volume. 

Critical Minerals and Energy Manufacturing

Supply chains necessary for battery technologies are being built out in the U.S. thanks to IRA incentives. The new Manufacturing and Energy Supply Chain Office (MESC) has implemented and unveiled programs to retool existing facilities for EV manufacturing, and rehire existing work, and provide tax incentives for clean energy manufacturing facilities with funding provided in the IRA. The office supports the development and deployment of a domestic clean energy supply chain, including for critical minerals needed for batteries and other advanced technologies.

Critical Thinking on Critical Minerals: How the U.S. Government Can Support the Development of Domestic Production Capacity for the Battery Supply Chain Batteries for electric vehicles, in particular, will require the U.S. to consume an order of magnitude more lithium, nickel, cobalt, and graphite than it currently consumes.

Nature Based Solutions

Billions of dollars have been invested into nature based solutions, including $1 billion in urban forestry, that will make communities more resilient to climate change.

A National Framework For Sustainable Urban Forestry To Combat Extreme Heat. To realize the full benefits of the federal government’s investment in urban forestry, there will need to be a coordinated, equity-focused, and economically validated federal plan to guide the development and maintenance of urban forestry that will allow the full utilization of this critical resource.

Submit Your Science and Technology Policy Ideas

The IRA is one lever to make real-world change; good ideas can come from anyone, including you.

FAS is soliciting federal policy ideas to present to the next U.S. presidential administration through the Day One 2025 project, which closes soon. Interested parties can submit science and technology related policy ideas year-round at FAS’s Day One website page.

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ABOUT FAS

The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) works to advance progress on a broad suite of contemporary issues where science, technology, and innovation policy can deliver dramatic progress, and seeks to ensure that scientific and technical expertise have a seat at the policymaking table. Established in 1945 by scientists in response to the atomic bomb, FAS continues to work on behalf of a safer, more equitable, and more peaceful world. More information at fas.org.