FAS

First Unclassified Nuclear Posture Review Released

04.08.10 | 3 min read | Text by Steven Aftergood

In what may be the Obama Administration’s single most significant reduction in national security secrecy to date, the Department of Defense this week published the first unclassified Nuclear Posture Review.

The Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) defines U.S. nuclear weapons policy, strategy and force structure.  As such, it is one of the most important national security policy documents in government.  Two previous Reviews conducted by the Clinton and Bush Administrations in 1994 and 2001 were classified and were not meant to be made public.

When portions of the Bush NPR nevertheless leaked in 2002, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld furiously condemned the release.  “Whoever leaked it violated federal criminal law,” he said.  “It seems that there are some people who simply have a compulsion to seem important, so they take classified information which can damage U.S. national security and give it to people who aren’t cleared for it,” he added.  Even after the Bush NPR report leaked, another official said, “the last administration then found it difficult ever to talk about the results of the review, because it was talking about a leaked classified document.”

But this week, in a tangible sign of changing national security secrecy standards, Defense Secretary Robert Gates held a press conference to release the latest NPR document (pdf) himself.

“The report of the Nuclear Posture Review will exist only in unclassified form,” a Pentagon official said at a background briefing on April 6. “There will not be a classified Nuclear Posture Review from which we have redacted a lot of information and then just put forward an unclassified variant. This reflected a decision early in the process…. And in an effort to be fully transparent in our choices and the thinking behind them, we did not want to leave big open questions about what might be left unsaid because it’s in the classified domain.”

This is not the end of nuclear weapons secrecy, by any means.  For one thing, the exact size and composition of the U.S. nuclear arsenal remain classified (wrongly, we would say).  Also, “you know there are classified implementation processes, guidance processes,” the unnamed Pentagon briefer said. “So it’s not that it’s free of classified aspects, but the [NPR] report as such and all of the policy findings and recommendations and all of the logic behind them will be presented at the unclassified level.”

Incongruously, even the Obama Presidential Study Directive that initiated the latest NPR process a year ago remains classified and unavailable.  But with the release of the final Report, that seems like a mere bureaucratic absurdity of little consequence.

The public release of the NPR report does not guarantee a superior policy outcome.  But it does eliminate a longstanding hurdle to informed debate on nuclear weapons policy, and it permits the interested public to focus its attention on the substance of the policy, not on a tiresome pursuit of undisclosed records.

In December 1993, Secretary of Energy Hazel O’Leary undertook her Openness Initiative, releasing all kinds of previously secret records on nuclear weapons tests, historical production of nuclear materials, and many other important topics.  Borrowing a slogan from an old cigarette ad, a DOE spokesman at the time said that the Department’s new secrecy policy was to “classify less, and enjoy it more.”

In this instance, at least, the Obama Administration seems to be following the same joyful path.

The White House yesterday announced the release of dozens of executive branch agency Open Government Plans, which are supposed to guide the implementation of the President’s Open Government Directive.  Several of the Plans deal, directly or indirectly, with declassification of national security information and records.

publications
See all publications
Environment
Blog
Disaster Policy Nerds Explain the Good, Bad, and Ugly in FEMA Review Council Report

After months of delay, the council tasked by President Trump to review the FEMA released its final report. Our disaster policy nerds have thoughts.

05.21.26 | 8 min read
read more
Global Risk
Press release
Federation of American Scientists, Future of Life Institute Present Converging Risks Report, AI Impact Awards at Gala

FAS and FLI partnered to build a series of convenings and reports across the intersections of artificial intelligence (AI) with biosecurity, cybersecurity, nuclear command and control, military integration, and frontier AI governance. This project brought together leaders across these areas and created a space that was rigorous, transpartisan, and solutions-oriented to approach how we should think about how AI is rapidly changing global risks.

05.20.26 | 9 min read
read more
Emerging Technology
Blog
Closing the Strategic Capital Gap: The Case for Modernizing the Export-Import Bank

Investment should instead be directed at sectors where American technology and innovation exist but the infrastructure to commercialize them domestically does not—and where the national security case is clear.

05.20.26 | 3 min read
read more
Clean Energy
Blog
States Are Plugging into Experimental Electricity Policy to Find Cost-Saving Success

To tune into the action on the ground, we convened practitioners, state and local officials, advocates, and policy experts to discuss what it will actually take to deploy clean energy faster, modernize electricity systems, and lower costs for households.

05.13.26 | 5 min read
read more