FAS

How Big Should the Army Be?

09.09.16 | 2 min read | Text by Steven Aftergood

In its version of the pending defense authorization bill, the House of Representatives said that the U.S. Army should consist of 480,000 soldiers at the end of FY2017. That would be an increase of 5,000 over the current year level of 475,000.

But the Senate said that 460,000 soldiers would be sufficient, a decrease of 15,000.

Meanwhile, the Department of Defense itself is proposing to reduce Army “end strength” down to 450,000 soldiers by the end of FY 2018.

So how big should the Army be?

The answer is– it depends. What it depends on is, among other things, what the Army is for in the first place, what resources are available, what competing priorities need attention, and what changes in the threat environment can be foreseen.

These issues are illuminated in a new report from the Congressional Research Service. Instead of proposing its own answer to the question, the CRS report examines the premises underlying the diverse positions on the subject, helping to explain how different people could arrive at different conclusions. It is unclear that congressional leaders have any appetite for this kind of analysis, but others who are not already ideologically committed to a position might benefit from it.

“For many observers, questions regarding the appropriate end strength of the Army are related to the changing international security landscape, and the perception that those changes are resulting in heightened threats to the United States and its interests abroad. For others, the cost of increasing the size of the Army is the predominant factor,” the report said.

In any case, “Although the international security environment is arguably becoming more challenging and complex, the role of ground forces–relative to other services–in helping the nation meet those challenges is somewhat unclear.”

One threshold question, therefore, is: “What are the tasks that the Army, specifically, needs to accomplish for the nation?” See How Big Should the Army Be? Considerations for Congress, September 2, 2016.

Some related official resources include the following.

Report of the National Commission on the Future of the Army, report to the President and the Congress of the United States, January 28, 2016

Notification to Congress on the Permanent Reduction of Sizable Numbers of Members of the Armed Forces, US Army report to Congress (via FOIA), July 2015

Force Structure and Force Design Updates, Army G3/5/7 briefing (FOUO), August 2015

Stability [on joint stability operations], Joint Publication 3-07, Joint Chiefs of Staff, August 3, 2016

publications
See all publications
Emerging Technology
Blog
Translating Vision into Action: FAS Commentary on the NSCEB Final Report and the Future of U.S. Biotechnology

Advancing the U.S. leadership in emerging biotechnology is a strategic imperative, one that will shape regional development within the U.S., economic competitiveness abroad, and our national security for decades to come.

06.27.25 | 15 min read
read more
Emerging Technology
day one project
Policy Memo
Measuring and Standardizing AI’s Energy and Environmental Footprint to Accurately Access Impacts

Inconsistent metrics and opaque reporting make future AI power‑demand estimates extremely uncertain, leaving grid planners in the dark and climate targets on the line

06.27.25 | 15 min read
read more
Clean Energy
day one project
Policy Memo
Speed Grid Connection Using ‘Smart AI Fast Lanes’ and Competitive Prizes

Federal and state governments need to ensure that the development of new AI and data center infrastructure does not increase costs for consumers, impact the environment, and exacerbate existing inequalities.

06.27.25 | 10 min read
read more
Emerging Technology
day one project
Policy Memo
A Holistic Framework for Measuring and Reporting AI’s Impacts to Build Public Trust and Advance AI 

As AI becomes more capable and integrated throughout the United States economy, its growing demand for energy, water, land, and raw materials is driving significant economic and environmental costs, from increased air pollution to higher costs for ratepayers.

06.26.25 | 15 min read
read more