Leonard Barrett - Federation of American Scientists

Leonard Barrett

In 2020, Leonard became obsessed with forecasting the arc of the COVID-19 pandemic, eventually placing 7th out of almost 7,000 forecasters on Good Judgement Open’s two-year Coronavirus Outbreak Challenge. From there, he became an accredited Superforecaster and eventually left a decade-long career in real estate development to focus full-time on advancing crowd forecasting as a tool for guiding policy and mitigating global risks.

publications

Government Capacity

day one project

Policy Memo

Collaborative Intelligence: Harnessing Crowd Forecasting for National Security

Crowd forecasting methods offer a systematic approach to quantifying the U.S. intelligence community’s uncertainty about the future and predicting the impact of interventions, allowing decision-makers to strategize effectively and allocate resources by outlining risks and tradeoffs in a legible format.

11.27.24 | 5 min read