Doomsday Clock at 89 Seconds to Midnight Signals Growing Nuclear Risk
Today, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists announced that the Doomsday Clock is 89 seconds to midnight.
Created in 1974, the Clock is a symbolic representation of how close humanity is to global catastrophe—or midnight—due to man-made technologies. The Clock is set by the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board, a group of experts on nuclear risk, biological threats, disruptive technologies, and climate change. Each time the Doomsday Clock is set, it is a visual reminder of the work to be done.
While the Clock has remained at 90 seconds for the past three years, today, the Bulletin announced that the Clock has moved 1 second to midnight, symbolizing a time of “unprecedented danger.” This is the closest the Doomsday Clock has ever been to midnight, even through events like the Cuban Missile Crisis, the creation of the hydrogen bomb, 9/11, and North Korea’s first test of a nuclear weapon. The Science and Security Board explained that this change was due mainly to a rise in nuclear stockpiles, warming global temperatures, and advances in disruptive technologies. A “countdown to zero” metaphor, the Clock is used as a plea from scientists and experts for policy changes that would reduce the risk of nuclear war and mitigate the effects of climate change.
Daniel Holz, the Chair of the Science and Security Board, stated that “the countries that possess nuclear weapons are increasing the size of all of their arsenals, investing hundreds of billions of dollars in weapons that can destroy civilization many times over.”
The Federation of American Scientists was founded over 75 years ago after the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki with a commitment to the use of science and technology for the betterment of humanity. To this day, the staff continues to work towards the reduction of nuclear risks and to support evidence-based policy decisions.
In 2024, the Nuclear Information Project of the Federation of American Scientists reported on several of the risks that contributed to the clock’s hand moving forward.
All nuclear weapons states are undergoing nuclear weapons modernization programs. While not all states are necessarily increasing the number of warheads in their stockpiles, a combination of nuclear signaling, the degradation of arms control, and massive spending indicate that we are entering an age of arms racing. All of these indicators demonstrate that states are further prioritizing nuclear weapons in their national security strategies, potentially at the expense of more proximate security priorities.
As long as nuclear weapons exist, nuclear war remains possible. The Nuclear Information Project provides transparency of global nuclear arsenals through open source analysis. It is through this data that policy makers can call for informed policy change. Pursuing policy options that lower the risks of nuclear war and global catastrophe should be of the utmost importance. In 2024, The Global Risk team at Federation of American Scientists proposed several options as part of FAS’s Day One Project.
Pursuing a Missile Pre-launch Notification with China as a Risk Reduction Measure
With tensions and aggressive rhetoric on the rise, the next administration needs to prioritize and reaffirm the necessity of regular communication with China on military and nuclear weapons issues to reduce the risk of misunderstandings. Details regarding a proposed agreement between China and the United States can be found in this policy memo.
Removing Arbitrary Deployment Quotas for Nuclear Force Posture
Congress should ensure that no amendments dictating the size of the intercontinental ballistic missile force are included in future National Defense Authorization Acts. For more on reducing costs in the ICBM force and adjusting to current strategic objectives, read this policy memo.
Introducing Certification of Technical Necessity for Resumption of Nuclear Explosive Testing
The United States should continue its voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons tests and implement further checks on the president’s ability to call for a resumption of nuclear testing. On preventing environmental contamination, unnecessary spending, public health crises, and security threats due to resuming nuclear testing, read more here.
Saving Billions on the US Nuclear Deterrent
Life-extending the existing Minuteman III missiles is the best way to field an ICBM force without sacrificing funding for other priorities. Read more in this policy memo.
As long as nuclear weapons exist, nuclear war remains possible. The Nuclear Information Project provides transparency of global nuclear arsenals through open source analysis. It is through this data that policy makers can call for informed policy change.
FAS estimates that the United States maintains a stockpile of approximately 3,700 warheads, about 1,700 of which are deployed.
The Department of Defense has finally released the 2024 version of the China Military Power Report.
With tensions and aggressive rhetoric on the rise, the next administration needs to prioritize and reaffirm the necessity of regular communication with China on military and nuclear weapons issues to reduce the risk of misunderstandings.