Polar Infrastructure and Science for National Security: A Federal Agenda to Promote Glacier Resilience and Strengthen American Competitiveness
Polar regions – both the Arctic and Antarctic – are an important venue for strategic competition and loom as emerging and future national security challenges. As recognized during the first Trump Administration, ceding U.S. leadership at the poles threatens our future and emboldens our adversaries. The recent actions that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Russia have taken in the Arctic undermine regional stability as both nations aim to take economic advantage of newly available resources, such as oil, invest in research with dual military-civil applications, and take on an increasingly dominant role in regional governance.
The Antarctic is the next security frontier. U.S. leadership in the Antarctic is eroding as U.S. investments dwindle and nations, including the PRC, establish new outposts and operations there. Simultaneously, polar change threatens to upend U.S. coastal communities and global security as ice-melt and glacier collapse could lead to catastrophic sea level rise, fueling extreme property loss, conflict, and mass migration. Glacier resilience, defined as the capacity of glacier systems to withstand and adapt to climate-driven stressors while maintaining their critical functions, is essential to mitigating these risks. Despite a longstanding treaty, the United States and our strategic partners have woefully underinvested in the development of tools, technologies, models, and monitoring infrastructure to inform glacial management, enable solutions to mitigate risks, and to shape U.S. security and foreign policy.
Building on the prior Trump Administration’s plans for additional polar security icebreakers to protect national interests in the Arctic and Antarctic regions, Congress and the incoming Trump Administration should work together to reinforce the U.S. position in the regions, recognizing the role Antarctica in particular may have in a changing global order and its significance for sea-level rise.
We propose a Polar/Antarctic strategy for the incoming Trump Administration to enhance U.S. national security, promote American leadership, deter our adversaries, and prevent disastrous ice sheet collapse. This strategy involves research and development of engineering methods to slow the loss of glaciers and rates of sea-level rise by reducing the forces that drive glacier change and sensitivity of glaciers to those forces. Consistent with and reinforcing of the Antarctic Treaty System, this plan would focus investment across four areas:
- Critical infrastructure to enhance American presence at the poles with enhanced monitoring capabilities – forecasting ice-sheet change and sea-level rise.
- Exploratory research and pilot demonstrations of new, innovative, and protective technologies to stabilize glaciers and mitigate against catastrophic glacial collapse.
- Research to better understand ice sheets and the surrounding oceans, glacier dynamics, and monitoring needs.
- Policies to protect American interests and ensure our allies contribute their fair share to address the glacial resilience challenge.
Challenge and Opportunity
The threat of sea-level rise is often seen as manageable, with increases of centimeters or inches. However, projections indicate that the collapse of the Thwaites Glacier and West Antarctic Ice Sheet could result in“doomsday scenarios” characterized by sea-level rises of as much as 10 feet worldwide. The probabilities of these occurrences have increased recently. If these possibilities became reality, then sea level would inundate major U.S. coastal regions and cities that are home to 12 million people and trillions of dollars of property and infrastructure. Globally, hundreds of millions of people would be at risk, fueling mass migration, refugee crises, and security challenges that threaten U.S. interests. Protecting Thwaites and the Antarctic Ice Sheet from collapse is crucial for a manageable future, making glacial resilience essential in any domestic and international national security strategy.
There are many ideas about how to slow glacial collapse and protect the ice to hold back sea level rise; however, this research and technology development receives almost no federal funding. We must take this threat seriously and dramatically ramp up our infrastructure at the poles to monitor glaciers and demonstrate new technologies to protect the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
While the current Antarctic treaty prohibits military activity in the region, it allows scientific research and other activities that could have military applications. At the same time, U.S. polar research infrastructure and funding is woefully insufficient to support the necessary innovation and operations required to address the sea-level rise challenge and maintain American leadership. Federal science funding agencies including the National Science Foundation (NSF), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) play a critical role in supporting research in the Antarctic and on glacial processes. While these efforts have yielded some tools and understanding of glacial dynamics, there is no comprehensive, sustained approach to learn about and monitor changes to the ice sheets over time or to develop and test new strategies for glacial resilience. As a result, U.S. scientific infrastructure in the Antarctic has been largely neglected. The data produced by prior funded Antarctic studies have been insufficient to build an authoritative projection model of sea-level rise, a necessity to inform Antarctic management and to inform adaptation measures required by decision makers, coastal communities, and other stakeholders.
A glacial resilience initiative that leverages space-based commercial and governmental satellite systems, long-duration unmanned aerial radar capabilities, and other observational capabilities would revitalize American leadership in polar regions at a critical time, as the PRC and other adversaries increase their polar presence – particularly in the Antarctic.
Plan of Action
To strengthen glacial resilience and U.S. polar security, the next Administration should launch a comprehensive initiative to build critical world-leading infrastructure, promote innovation in glacial resilience technologies, enhance research on glacial dynamics and monitoring, and pursue policies that preserve U.S. national security interests. The recommendations below address each of these areas.
Develop and maintain world-leading critical infrastructure for glacial monitoring and resilience research and innovation.
NSF and the Air Force currently maintain operations for the U.S. in the Antarctic, but these facilities are in such a deplorable state that NSF has recently canceled all new field research and indefinitely delayed high priority experiments slated to be built at the South Pole. As the primary physical presence for the U.S. government, this infrastructure must be upgraded so that NSF can support scaled research and monitoring efforts.
Expand glacial monitoring capabilities, utilizing space, air, and on-ice methods through NASA, NOAA, DOD, and NSF.
This effort should maximally leverage existing commercial and governmental space-based assets and deploy other air-based, long-duration unmanned aerial capabilities. The next administration should also create national glacier models to provide detailed and timely information about glacier dynamics and sea-level rise to inform coastal planning and glacial resilience field efforts.
Pilot development and demonstration of glacier resilience technologies.
There is currently extremely limited investment in technology development to enhance glacier resilience. Agencies such as NSF and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) should support innovation and grand challenges to spur development of new ideas and technologies. The PRC is already investing in this kind of research and the United States and our strategic partners are far behind in ensuring we are the ones to develop the technology and set the standards for its use.
Support a robust research program to improve understanding of glacier dynamics.
To address critical gaps and develop a coordinated, sustained approach to glacier research, the U.S. must invest in basic science to better understand ice sheet dynamics and destabilization. Investments should include field research as well as artificial intelligence (AI), modeling, and forecasting capabilities through NSF, NASA, DOD, and NOAA. These efforts rely on the infrastructure discussed above and will be used to better develop future infrastructure, creating a cycle of innovation that supports the U.S. operational presence and leadership and giving us a comparative advantage over our adversaries.
Protect national security interests and maintain American leadership by promoting glacial resilience in international contexts.
There is a major void in international polar discussions about the importance of glacial resilience and extremely limited attention to developing technologies that would prevent ice sheet collapse and catastrophic sea level rise. The next administration should play a leadership role in advancing global investment, ensuring that our allies contribute to this effort and the U.S. alone does not bear its costs. International research collaboration with our strategic allies will prevent the PRC and other competitors from expanding their influence and from surpassing the United States as the leader in Antarctic and polar research and innovation.
Support a new legislative package focused on advancing critical Antarctic research.
The Arctic Research and Policy Act of 1982 provides “for a comprehensive national policy dealing with national research needs and objectives in the Arctic.” Modeled on the Arctic Research and Policy Act, a new legislative package could include:
- Increased authorization for Antarctic research appropriations, including glacier resilience research through agencies like NSF and NASA, and investments in needed technologies and modeling initiatives specifically targeting Antarctic ice melt, glacier resilience, and sea level rise.
- Establishment of an interagency policy committee to spearhead activities across government, similar to (or expanding the mandate of) the Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee (IARPC).
- Authorization for international collaborations to study ice sheet dynamics and global impacts.
- A mandate for interagency coordination among NSF, NASA, DOD, NSC, DHS, and NOAA to integrate Antarctic risks into national preparedness strategies, and the creation of a national strategy for addressing catastrophic sea-level rise risks, integrating scientific research into adaptation and emergency response plans.
This legislation would elevate Antarctic research as a crucial part of a national security strategy and ensure the United States is prepared to confront the risks and consequences of Antarctic ice sheet collapse.
Conclusion
The U.S. faces an important moment to address polar challenges that threaten both national security and global stability. As adversaries like PRC and Russia expand their presence and influence in the Arctic and Antarctic, the U.S. must reclaim leadership. Glacial resilience is a strategic imperative, given the catastrophic risks of sea-level rise and its impacts on coastal communities, migration, and security. By prioritizing investment in polar infrastructure, advancing cutting-edge technologies to mitigate glacial collapse, and strengthening international collaboration, the U.S. can lead a global effort to safeguard polar regions. A robust, coordinated strategy will bolster American interests, deter adversaries, and build resilience against one of the most pressing challenges we face today.
This action-ready policy memo is part of Day One 2025 — our effort to bring forward bold policy ideas, grounded in science and evidence, that can tackle the country’s biggest challenges and bring us closer to the prosperous, equitable and safe future that we all hope for whoever takes office in 2025 and beyond.
We estimate a budget of $100 million annually for the full approach, including investments in observational technologies, modeling efforts, and infrastructure improvements. This number includes funding for critical satellite programs, field research campaigns, and enhanced data modeling. The investment supports national security by addressing one of the most pressing threats to U.S. stability – sea-level rise. Accelerating glacier melt and the resulting sea-level rise could displace millions of people, destabilize coastal economies, and threaten critical infrastructure, including military bases and ports. This work enhances our nation’s ability to forecast and prepare for these threats, as well as our ability to mitigate glacial melt in ways that safeguard lives, property, and national interests.
This course of action prioritizes early investment in observational technology, predictive modeling, and infrastructure development because these elements form the foundation of any meaningful response to the threat of catastrophic sea-level rise. The policy aligns with national security priorities by focusing on capabilities that enable accurate forecasting and risk assessment. Waiting to implement risks missing critical warning signs of glacial destabilization and puts the nation’s preparedness at risk. The recommended approach emphasizes proactive investment, which is far less expensive than responding to catastrophic sea-level rise.
This proposal addresses the risks posed by catastrophic sea-level rise, which threaten critical infrastructure, economic stability, and global geopolitical stability. Specifically:
- Many U.S. military installations, including naval bases and strategic ports, are located in coastal areas or on low-lying islands vulnerable to sea-level rise. Improved forecasting will allow the DoD to proactively adapt to sea-level rise.
- Sudden and severe sea-level rise could force millions of people to migrate, creating humanitarian crises and destabilizing regions critical to U.S. interests. Early warning and mitigation strategies could reduce the likelihood of mass displacement and conflict.
- The Arctic and Antarctic are becoming areas of increased geopolitical competition. This proposal is an opportunity for the U.S. to strengthen global influence while maintaining strategic advantages in these regions.
Glaciers, particularly the Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica, represent one of the most immediate and uncontrollable contributors to sea-level rise. Destabilized marine ice sheets are capable of causing rapid sea-level rise, threatening millions of coastal residents and vital infrastructure. Unlike other areas of climate science, the dynamics of glacial flow and melt are poorly understood and underfunded. With targeted investments, we can significantly improve our ability to monitor, model, and mitigate glacial contributions to sea-level rise.
- Initiatives like hurricane forecasting and flood mitigation have demonstrated that early investments in forecasting technologies save billions in recovery costs and reduce loss of life.
- Programs such as NASA’s Earth Observing system and NOAA’s disaster resilience initiatives show that partnerships between federal agencies, academia, and the private sector drive innovation and amplify impact.
- Delays in addressing risks like wildfires and droughts have highlighted the high cost of inaction, underscoring the need to move quickly and decisively in tackling sea-level rise threats.
Congress and the incoming Trump Administration should work together to reinforce the U.S. position in the regions, recognizing the role Antarctica in particular may have in a changing global order and its significance for sea-level rise.
A National Water Technology Pipeline would mobilize American entrepreneurs and manufacturers to lead on research and development of the next generation of solutions in water treatment, monitoring, and data management.
The federal government should designate “Receiving Cities” to which it will allocate funds and tax incentives aimed at producing and preserving affordable housing, in anticipation of population inflows.
FAS commends the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources for clearing a historic 75 pieces of legislation, including multiple crucial bills to confront the wildfire crisis.