DATE=8/21/1999 TYPE=ON THE LINE TITLE=ON THE LINE: THE INDIA-PAKISTAN CRISIS NUMBER=1-00769 SHORT # 1 EDITOR=OFFICE OF POLICY - 619-0037 CONTENT= INSERTS AVAILABLE IN AUDIO SERVICES THEME: UP, HOLD UNDER AND FADE Anncr: On the Line - a discussion of United States policy and contemporary issues. This week, "The India-Pakistan Crisis." Here is your host, -- ------. Host: Hello and welcome to On the Line. Sporadic fighting in Kashmir between Indian troops and Muslim militants continues, but the danger of a full-scale conflict between India and Pakistan appears to have receded. Earlier this year, India and Pakistan seemed to be moving toward improved relations. The prime ministers of both nations met in Lahore, Pakistan in February, the first such visit by an Indian leader in a decade. The dialogue was seen as all the more important since both countries had conducted successful nuclear weapons tests last year. When fighting in Kargil broke out in May, it provoked worldwide concern because, as Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said, "Kashmir is a nuclear flashpoint." Stephen Cohen is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. He says that Pakistan miscalculated in Kashmir, but there is little danger of escalation. Cohen: Apparently, Nawaz Sharif decided to give permission for an incursion by the Pakistan military or something supported by the Pakistan military. And either it was larger than he thought it would be or it got out of hand. It was more successful than he thought it would be, and the Indians suffered at least a tactical military defeat. I think, though, that Lahore and Kargil, these two extremes, do represent the way in which the countries relate to each other. Kashmir has been a contentious issue between the two countries for a long time, but I think they have worked out a relationship where they will not let Kashmir get out of hand. Host: Michael Krepon is president of the Henry Stimson Center. He says that neither Pakistan nor India is approaching the Kashmir problem sensibly. Krepon: Pakistan's Kashmir problem is that Pakistan's Kashmir policy is an insurgency policy. And the more Pakistan resorts to the use of the gun within Kashmir, the more the gun becomes prevalent within Pakistan itself. And so Pakistan's Kashmir policy threatens Pakistan. And it does not help Kashmiris. India also has a Kashmir problem. India's Kashmir problem is that India's governance has not done real well in the Indian states of Kashmir and Jammu. India's approach to Kashmir has had only one track, which is fighting insurgency. And every Indian scholar who has looked at Kashmir has come to the same conclusion. A one-track policy for Kashmir is not going to work. Host: Zalmay Khalilzad is director of the strategy and doctrine program at the RAND Corporation. He says that there is no short-term solution. Khalilzad: I think that the problem is not only India, but the problem is also Pakistan because each of the alternatives, except one in which the whole of Kashmir comes and joins Pakistan, poses Pakistan with extreme dilemmas and challenges. But I think what we need to do is to become more engaged in preparing the grounds for a settlement over the longer term. The near term is to manage the crisis and prevent it from getting out of control. Host: Stephen Cohen from the Brookings Institution says that the Kashmir crisis shows the need for U.S. policy to broaden its focus beyond the non-proliferation issue in south Asia to deal with the political problems between India and Pakistan. For On the Line, this is --------. Anncr: You've been listening to "On the Line" - a discussion of United States policies and contemporary issues. This is --------. 20-Aug-1999 13:41 PM EDT (20-Aug-1999 1741 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .