Publication Archive

Back
Global Risk
Blog
One Step at a Time With Iran

As hoped, the P5+1 and Iran settled on a “first step” agreement to resolve concerns about Iran’s potential to develop nuclear weapons and its interest in doing so. We cannot predict how far this process will go or what the next step to establish a comprehensive, enduring agreement that puts the nuclear issue squarely in the […]

11.25.13 | 6 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
Making the Cut: Reducing the SSBN Force

By Hans M. Kristensen A new Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report – Options For Reducing the Deficit: 2014-2023 – proposes reducing the Navy’s fleet of Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines from the 14 boats today to 8 in 2020. That would save $11 billion in 2015-2023, and another $30 billion during the 2030s from buying four […]

11.18.13 | 7 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
New Nuclear Notebook: Chinese Nuclear Force Modernization

By Hans M. Kristensen China continues to upgrade bases for mobile nuclear medium-range ballistic missiles. The image above shows one of several new launch pads for DF-21 missile launchers constructed at a base near Jianshui in southern China. A new satellite image* on Apple Maps shows the latest part of a two-decade long slow replacement […]

11.13.13 | 8 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
Capabilities of B61-12 Nuclear Bomb Increase Further

By Hans M. Kristensen With every official statement about the B61 nuclear bomb life-extension program, the capabilities of the new version (B61-12) appear to be increasing. Previously, officials from the DOD, STRATCOM, and NNSA said the program is a consolidation of the B61-3, B61-4, B61-7, and B61-10 gravity bombs that would provide no additional military […]

10.30.13 | 5 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
India’s Missile Modernization Beyond Minimum Deterrence

By Hans M. Kristensen Every time India test-launches a new ballistic missile, officials from the defense industry go giddy about the next missile, which they say will be bigger, more accurate, fly longer, and carry more nuclear warheads. Until now, all Indian ballistic missile types have carried only one warhead each, an important feature that […]

10.04.13 | 9 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
New START Data Shows Russia Reducing, US Increasing Nuclear Forces

By Hans M. Kristensen While arms control opponents in Congress have been busy criticizing the Obama administration’s proposal to reduce nuclear forces further, the latest data from the New START Treaty shows that Russia has reduced its deployed strategic nuclear forces while the United States has increased its force over the past six months. Yes, […]

10.03.13 | 4 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
Before Eliminating Syria’s Chemical Weapons, One Must Find Syria’s Chemical Weapons

Most of the world (including the U.S.) seems to be relieved now that there is affirmative progress towards eliminating Syria’s ghastly chemical weapon (CW) stockpiles, thereby avoiding (at least for now) a military strike that no one really wanted to undertake.  The Syrian government has announced that it will soon join the Organization for the […]

09.17.13 | 1 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
B61-12 Nuclear Bomb Triggers Debate in the Netherlands

By Hans M. Kristensen The issue of the improved military capabilities of the new B61-12 nuclear bomb entered the Dutch debate today with a news story on KRO Brandpunt (video here) describing NATO’s approval in 2010 of the military characteristics of the weapon. Dutch approval to introduce the enhanced bomb later this decade is controversial because […]

09.13.13 | 2 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
Dispute Over US Nuke in the Netherlands: Who Pays For An Accident?

By Hans M. Kristensen Only a few years before U.S. nuclear bombs deployed at Volkel Air Base in the Netherlands are scheduled to be airlifted back to the United States and replaced with an improved bomb with greater accuracy, the U.S. and Dutch governments are in a dispute over how to deal with the environmental […]

08.29.13 | 3 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
MSNBC On Nuclear Weapons Reduction Efforts

By Hans M. Kristensen MSNBC used FAS data on the world nuke arsenals in an interview with Ploughshares Fund president Joe Cirincione about how deteriorating US-Russian relations might affect efforts to reduce nuclear arsenals. The updated weapons estimates on the FAS web site are here. Detailed profiles of each nuclear weapon state are published as […]

08.13.13 | 1 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
SSBNX Under Pressure: Submarine Chief Says Navy Can’t Reduce

By Hans M. Kristensen In a blog and video on the U.S. Navy web site Navy Live, the head of the U.S. submarine force Rear Admiral Richard Breckenridge claims that the United States cannot reduce its fleet of nuclear ballistic missile submarines further. This is the third time in three months that Breckenridge has seen […]

07.24.13 | 7 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
Air Force Intelligence Report Provides Snapshot of Nuclear Missiles

By Hans M. Kristensen The U.S. Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence Center (NASIC) has published its long-awaited update to the Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat report, one of the few remaining public (yet sanitized) U.S. intelligence assessment of the world nuclear (and other) forces. Previous years’ reports have been reviewed and made available […]

07.10.13 | 7 min read
read more