Publication Archive

Back
Global Risk
Blog
Aging Electronics May Limit Nuke Reliability

The use of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) electronic parts in nuclear weapons systems may reduce the reliability of the US nuclear arsenal over time as the electronics age in ways that are hard to predict, according to a newly disclosed report from the JASON science advisory panel. “Most of the electronic materials and components within a weapon […]

03.11.21 | 3 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
China’s Expanding Missile Training Area: More Silos, Tunnels, and Support Facilities

The Chinese military appears to be significantly expanding the number of ballistic missiles silos under construction in a new sprawling training area in the northern part of central China. Recent satellite images indicate that at least 16 silos are under construction, a significant expansion in just a few years since a silo was first described […]

02.24.21 | 10 min read
read more
Global Risk
Report
Alternatives to the Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent

This policy memo suggests that the Biden administration should immediately launch a National Security Council-led strategic review examining the role of ICBMs in US nuclear strategy, and presents four alternative policy options that the Biden administration could pursue in lieu of the current GBSD program of record. Download the report here.

02.05.21 | 1 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons Enters Into Force Today

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) enters into force today, 90 days after the deposit of the 50th instrument of ratification. So far, a total of 86 countries have signed the treaty, which complements existing disarmament measures like the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The TPNW is a significant milestone in the long and global […]

01.22.21 | 3 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
New NASIC Report Appears Watered Down And Out Of Date

The US Air Force National Air and Space Intelligence Center (NASIC) has published a new version of its widely referenced Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat report. The agency normally puts out an updated version of the report every four years. The previous version dates from 2017. The 2021 report (dated 2020) provides information on developments […]

01.19.21 | 7 min read
read more
Global Risk
Report
Public Perspectives on the US Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Force

This report features the results of an October 2020 poll on US nuclear policy conducted by ReThink Media on behalf of the Federation of American Scientists. Download the report here. View the polling as a webpage here.

01.09.21 | 1 min read
read more
Global Risk
Report
An Integrated Approach to Deterrence Posture

The primary deterrence challenge facing the United States today is preventing aggression and escalation in limited conventional conflicts with a nuclear-armed adversary.

01.04.21 | 2 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
NNSA Nuclear Plan Shows More Weapons, Increasing Costs, Less Transparency

The National Nuclear Security Administration’s (NNSA’s) new Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan (SSMP) doubles the number of new nuclear warhead programs compared with the previous plan from 2019. The plan shows nuclear weapons advocates taking full advantage of the Trump administration to boost nuclear weapon programs. The new plan also shows significantly increasing nuclear weapons […]

12.30.20 | 7 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
Trump Administration Again Refuses To Disclose Nuclear Weapons Stockpile Size

The Trump administration has denied a request from the Federation of American Scientists to disclose the size of the US nuclear weapons stockpile and the number of dismantled warheads.

12.03.20 | 3 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
USAF Plans To Expand Nuclear Bomber Bases

The US Air Force is working to expand the number of strategic bomber bases that can store nuclear weapons from two today to five by the 2030s. The plan will also significantly expand the number of bomber bases that store nuclear cruise missiles from one base today to all five bombers bases by the 2030s.

11.17.20 | 5 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
Environmental Assessment Reveals New Details About the Air Force’s ICBM Replacement Plan

Any time a US federal agency proposes a major action that “has the potential to cause significant effects on the natural or human environment,” they must complete an Environmental Impact Statement, or EIS. An EIS typically addresses potential disruptions to water supplies, transportation, socioeconomics, geology, air quality, and other factors in great detail––meaning that one […]

11.03.20 | 5 min read
read more
Global Risk
Blog
US Officials Give Confusing Comparisons Of US And Russian Nuclear Forces

In their effort to paint the New START treaty as insufficient and a bad deal for the United States and its allies, Trump administration official have recently made statements suggesting the treaty limits the US nuclear arsenal more than it limits the Russian arsenal.

10.22.20 | 8 min read
read more