On the Precipice: Artificial Intelligence and the Climb to Modernize Nuclear Command, Control, and Communications
The United States’ nuclear command, control, and communications (NC3) system remains a foundational pillar of national security, ensuring credible nuclear deterrence under the most extreme conditions. Yet as the United States embarks on long-overdue NC3 modernization, this effort has received less scholarly and policy attention than the modernization of nuclear delivery systems. This paper addresses that gap by providing a critical assessment of the U.S. NC3 enterprise and its evolving role in a rapidly transforming strategic environment.
Geopolitically, U.S. NC3 modernization must now contend with issues including China’s rise as a nuclear near peer, Russia’s deployment of increasingly threatening hypersonic and counterspace capabilities, and the erosion of norms restraining limited nuclear use.
Technologically, the shift from legacy analog to digital architectures introduces both great opportunities for enhanced speed and resilience and unprecedented vulnerabilities across cyber, space, and electronic domains.
Bureaucratically, modernization efforts face challenges from fragmented acquisition responsibilities and the need to align with broader initiatives such as Combined Joint All-Domain Command and Control (CJADC2) and the deployment of hybrid space architectures.
This paper argues that successful NC3 modernization must do more than update hardware and software: it must integrate emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), in ways that enhance resilience, ensure meaningful human control, and preserve strategic stability. The study evaluates the key systems, organizational challenges, and operational dynamics shaping U.S. NC3 and offers policy recommendations to strengthen deterrence credibility in an era of accelerating geopolitical and technological change.
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This publication was made possible by a grant from the Carnegie Corporation of New York. The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the author.
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