Missile Watch: Somalia
As part of its on-going efforts to track and call attention to the illicit trade in shoulder-fired, surface-to-air missiles, the FAS is launching a new e-newsletter called “Missile Watch.” Subscribers will receive periodic updates on the black market trade in shoulder-fired missiles, stockpiling and use of these missiles by non-state groups, and related topics. A comprehensive archive of “Missile Watch” updates will be available on the Strategic Security Blog and on the Arms Sales Monitoring Project’s website at /programs/ssp/asmp/MANPADS.html.
To sign up for this free service, go to /press/subscribe.html.
The latest report of the UN Monitoring Group on Somalia sheds new light on the SA-18 Igla missiles illicitly acquired by armed Somali groups in recent years. Since 2006, UN investigators and journalists working in Somalia have documented the transfer of dozens, possibly hundreds, of shoulder-fired, surface-to-air missiles to Islamic insurgents. The missiles range in sophistication from the relatively primitive SA-7b Strela to the third generation SA-18 Igla. In March 2007, two SA-18s were used to shoot down a Belarusian Ilyushin-76 cargo plane shortly after it departed from Mogadishu airport. All eleven crew members were killed.
Using the serial number from an SA-18 “found in Somalia,”* investigators were reportedly able to trace the SA-18 to a consignment of Russian Iglas manufactured in 1995 and “…shipped to Eritrea in the same year through the state company ‘Rosvooruzhenie,” according to a letter from Russia’s UN mission to the Monitoring Group. The letter also indicates that the original contract for the missiles required the recipient to seek permission before re-transferring the missiles and that “[t]he Eritrean side did not request this permission from us.” The letter concludes with a caveat: since the serial numbers are painted on the missile, “a [unauthorized] remarking is possible” and a “visual examination” by Russian specialists is required to definitively establish a linkage between the missile and the batch sold to Eritrea in 1995.
UN investigators also recovered an SA-7, which Russian authorities claim is not one of theirs. The SA-7 has been produced under license by several countries, and knock-offs have been produced by several more. The UN monitoring group has sent letters inquiring about the missile to four countries that have produced SA-7s under license – Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Poland, Romania and the former Yugoslavia – and is awaiting responses.
The trace results are the strongest evidence presented to date of Eritrean involvement in the transfer of shoulder-fired missiles to Somali insurgents, transfers that not only violated the long-standing UN arms embargo on Somalia but also international norms on the export of Man-portable Air Defense Systems. For more information on shoulder-fired missiles in Somalia, visit the Arms Sales Monitoring Project’s MANPADS Proliferation issue brief.
*The UN report does not indicate how and from whom the missiles were acquired.
The United States Air Force has forward deployed about one-third of its B-2 stealth bombers to Diego Garcia, or about half the B-2s considered fully operational at any given time.
Over the past year, the campaign to abolish nuclear weapons has experienced numerous wins that were celebrated at the Meeting of State Parties.
China is NOT a nuclear “peer” of the United States, as some contend.
China’s total number of approximately 600 warheads constitutes only a small portion of the United States’ estimated stockpile of 3,700 warheads.
Dr. Lim will help develop, organize, and implement FAS’s growing contribution in the area of catastrophic risk including on core areas of nuclear weapons, AI and national security, space, and other emerging technologies.