DATE=1/18/2000 TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT TITLE=JOHN GLAD ON RUSSIA'S FUTURE (L-ONLY) NUMBER=2-258189 BYLINE=BARRY WOOD DATELINE=WASHINGTON INTERNET=YES CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: Russian scholar John Glad, a former director of the Wilson Center's Kennan Institute, spoke Tuesday at the Wilson Center on what he sees as the coming collapse of the Russian state. V-O-A's Barry Wood reports. TEXT: The crux of Mr. Glad's argument is that the weakened Russian government will probably be unable to maintain the unity of the Russian state. Mr. Glad believes secessionist pressures could soon extend beyond the Caucasus to regions like resource-rich Yakutia which derives few economic benefits from Moscow. //first Glad act// The local corrupt mafias are going to say why should we give our money to Moscow. What does Moscow do for us? When you get out into some of these areas of the far-north, they haven't got electricity or heat. And you have to say what is Moscow doing for me? //end act// Croatian by birth, Mr. Glad says Yugoslavia broke apart because relatively rich Slovenia and Croatia were no longer willing to subsidize poorer Serbia and Macedonia. It is, says Mr. Glad, mainly economic reasons that make him pessimistic about Russia. //second Glad act// I look at the fundamentals. I see the low demographics. I see the disastrous economic situation, the loss of population through emigration, and I see a lot of neighbors who have been historically wronged. //end act// Mr. Glad, a former professor of Russian Studies at the University of Maryland, says the west should regard stability in Russia as a main priority. He believes if strong and wise leadership emerges in Moscow, his argument could be proven false. //third Glad act// In my view, it is a salvageable situation. (But) when you see the level of corruption, you have to say it can't happen without the full acquiesence of the center, from the very top. //end act// A frequent visitor to Russia, Professor Glad attracted attention in the early 1980s when he similarly predicted that the Soviet Union would collapse. (Signed) NEB/BDW/PT 18-Jan-2000 16:50 PM EDT (18-Jan-2000 2150 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .