DATE=12/22/98 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT NUMBER=5-42211 TITLE=YEARENDER: IRANIAN POLITICS '98 BYLINE=ALI JALALI DATELINE=WASHINGTON CONTENT= NOT VOICED: INTRO: 1998 SAW DEEPENING POLARIZATION OF POLITICS IN IRAN AS THE REFORMIST PRESIDENT MOHAMMAD KHATAMI FACED GROWING OPPOSITION FROM CONSERVATIVES ALIGNED WITH THE SUPREME RELIGIOUS LEADER AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI. V-O-A'S ALI JALALI LOOKS AT THE FACTIONAL POLITICS IN IRAN AND THEIR POTENTIAL INFLUENCE ON THE COUNTRY'S FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS. TEXT: THE YEAR, WHICH BEGAN WITH POSITIVE SIGNS OF SOCIAL AND POLITICAL CHANGES IN IRAN, ENDED WITH SEVERAL INCIDENTS OF VIOLENCE. IN RECENT WEEKS (SINCE NOVEMBER 20), FIVE DISSIDENT WRITERS AND POLITICAL FIGURES HAVE BEEN MURDERED. A SHADOWY ISLAMIST GROUP HAS CLAIMED RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE KILLINGS. THE VIOLENCE CAME AMID AN INTENSE POWER STRUGGLE BETWEEN RIVAL FACTIONS THAT DOMINATED THE IRANIAN POLITICAL SCENE THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. THE SHOWDOWN PITTED PRO-KHATAMI REFORMISTS AGAINST RIGHT-WING CLERICS WHO RALLIED BEHIND THE RELIGIOUS LEADER AYATULLAH KHAMENEI. DRAWING ON THEIR CONTROL OF MOST OF THE STATE INSTITUTIONS -- INCLUDING THE PARLIAMENT, THE JUDICIARY, THE ARMY AND THE SECURITY FORCES -- THE CONSERVATIVES TRIED TO THWART THE GROWING CAMPAIGN FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGES. THIS LEFT THE MODERATES FIGHTING FOR THEIR REFORM THEMES IN THE EMERGING INDEPENDENT PRESS AND THROUGH POPULAR RALLIES HELD ACROSS THE COUNTRY. AS THE YEAR WORE ON, THE CONSERVATIVE-CONTROLLED JUDICIARY MOVED TO CURB PRESS FREEDOM, BANNING LIBERAL PAPERS AND SENDING SOME JOURNALISTS TO JAIL. MEANWHILE, HARD-LINE VIGILANTE GROUPS (ANSAR-E HEZBOLLAH) CLASHED WITH PRO-REFORM DEMONSTRATORS IN THE STREETS OF TEHRAN AND ELSEWHERE. GEOFFREY KEMP, THE DIRECTOR OF REGIONAL STRATEGIC PROGRAMS AT THE NIXON CENTER, HAS RECENTLY VISITED IRAN AND SAYS THE CONSERVATIVES HAVE MANAGED TO SLOW THE PACE OF REFORMS IN THE COUNTRY. BUT HE SAYS THE SITUATION CAN CHANGE IN THE FUTURE. // KEMP ACT // I THINK THE POWER STRUGGLE IN THE SHORT RUN CAN GO EITHER WAY. THAT IS TO SAY, IN THE NEXT YEAR, THE CONSERVATIVES MAY BE ABLE TO CONSOLIDATE MORE POWER IN THEIR HANDS AND UNDERMINE AND ESSENTIALLY NEUTRALIZE MR. KHATAMI'S EFFORTS AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CIVIL SOCIETY. IN THE LONG-RUN, I THINK THE PROBABILITY THAT THE CONSERVATIVES CAN HOLD ON TO POWER ARE VERY LIMITED, GIVEN THE DEMOGRAPHY OF IRAN, THE ECONOMY OF IRAN, THE ASPIRATIONS OF THE IRANIAN PEOPLE, PARTICULARLY THOSE UNDER THE AGE OF 30, IRAN'S FOREIGN RELATIONS AND THE INCREASING ACCESS THE IRANIANS HAVE TO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. // END ACT // IN REMARKS DURING A RECENT STUDENTS RALLY IN TEHRAN (DECEMBER 7), PRESIDENT KHATAMI COMPLAINED THAT THE CONSERVATIVES AND TRADITIONALISTS ARE BLOCKING REFORMS IN THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC. HOWEVER, THE PRESIDENT URGED THE STUDENTS TO BE PATIENT AND TOLERANT. ANALYSTS OF IRANIAN POLITICS NOTE THAT DESPITE THE SHARP POLICY DIFFERENCES, FEW PEOPLE IN IRAN FAVOR VIOLENCE AS A WAY TO ATTAIN THEIR GOALS. THEREFORE, THE POLICY OF CHOICE FOR REFORMERS, THEY SAY, HAS BEEN A SLOW BUT STEADY MOVE FOR INCREMENTAL GAINS. THE FUTURE OF THE POLICY, THEY UNDERSCORE, HINGES ON CHANGES IN THE MAKE-UP OF THE PARLIAMENT AND THE AUTHORITY OF THE COUNCIL OF GUARDIANS -- A CONSERVATIVE-DOMINATED GROUP SCREENING CANDIDATES RUNNING FOR PUBLIC OFFICE. THE NEXT PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS -- A LITTLE OVER A YEAR AWAY -- ARE SEEN AS A POTENTIAL TURNING POINT FOR THE REFORM AGENDA. PROFESSOR BAHMAN BAKTIARI OF UNIVERSITY OF MAINE HAS STUDIED THE LEGISLATIVE POLITICS IN IRAN AND VISITED THE COUNTRY IN 1998. HE SAYS THE UPCOMING LOCAL ELECTIONS IN FEBRUARY MAY START A PROCESS OF GRADUAL EROSION OF THE CONSERVATIVES' GRIP ON LEGISLATIVE POWER. // BAKTIARI ACT // THESE LOCAL ELECTIONS ARE GOING TO DECENTRALIZE THE SYSTEM IN IRAN SIGNIFICANTLY. FIRST OF ALL, WE DON'T KNOW WHAT TYPE OF PEOPLE ARE GOING TO BE ELECTED, BUT THE FACT THAT ONE MILLION PEOPLE ARE GOING TO BE THE CANDIDATES, IT IS GOING TO CREATE A MOMENTUM THAT IS GOING TO BE LEADING INTO PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN THE FUTURE. SO, THE MOST IMPORTANT STRATEGY FOR KHATAMI IS TO KEEP THE PEOPLE INVOLVED. // END ACT // MANY OBSERVERS OF IRANIAN POLITICS AGREE A REFORM-ORIENTED PUBLIC MOVEMENT IS RISING ABOVE THE FACTIONAL BICKERING INSIDE THE COUNTRY. THE MOVEMENT, THEY SAY WILL PLAY A BALANCING ROLE IN PROMOTING DEMOCRATIC PARTICIPATION IN IRAN. PROFESSOR BAKTIARI SAYS THE PROCESS IS GOING TO BE A GRADUAL MOVE TO AN INCLUSIVE FORM OF GOVERNANCE IN IRAN. // BAKTIARI ACT // IN THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN, THERE IS A MOMENTUM FOR INCREASING POLITICAL PARTICIPATION. NOW, COULD THAT LEAD TO FORMATION OF POLITICAL PARTIES, PLURALISM, THAT'S A DIFFERENT QUESTION. BUT THERE IS NO DOUBT EVEN THE HARDLINERS CANNOT STAY OPPOSED TO THAT, THERE IS A MOMENTUM TOWARD POLITICAL PARTICIPATION AND THEY WANT TO HAVE THEIR PEOPLE INVOLVED. // END ACT // EARLIER THIS MONTH, SUPPORTERS OF MR. KHATAMI ANNOUNCED THE FORMATION OF A NEW, REFORMIST POLITICAL PARTY -- THE ISLAMIC IRAN PARTICIPATION FRONT. THE FRONT HAS ALSO BEGAN PUBLISHING A NEWSPAPER. // BEGIN OPT // HOWEVER, WESTERN OBSERVERS SAY, THE DETERIORATING STATE OF THE IRANIAN ECONOMY WILL HAVE A MAJOR INFLUENCE OVER THE FACTIONAL POLITICS. THE STRATEGY FOR ECONOMIC RECOVERY HAS BEEN ONE OF THE MOST CONTENTIOUS ISSUES IN THE DEBATE BETWEEN REFORMIST SUPPORTERS OF PRESIDENT KHATAMI AND THE CONSERVATIVE FACTIONS THAT CONTROL MOST OF THE POWER CENTERS IN THE COUNTRY. DR. KEMP SAYS DIFFERENCES OVER ECONOMIC POLICY CUT ACROSS THE FACTIONAL LINES // OPT KEMP ACT // THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS NO MATTER WHO IS IN CHARGE, THE CONSERVATIVES OR THE MODERATES, THERE ARE CERTAIN FUNDAMENTALS THAT HAVE TO BE ADDRESSED. FIRST, THE IRANIAN ECONOMY IS GROSSLY MISMANAGED, SECONDLY, THERE IS A RAMPANT CORRUPTION, THIRDLY, THE SUBSIDIES TO BASIC ITEMS SUCH AS PARTICULARLY FUEL AND FOOD ARE GROSSLY DISTORTED THE REVENUE DISPERSION IN THE BUDGET, AND FOURTHLY FALLING OIL PRICES REALLY REDUCES YOUR ABILITY TO INVEST IN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT FOR THE FUTURE. // END ACT // END OPT // ONE OF THE CASUALTIES OF THE ONGOING TUG OF WAR BETWEEN THE RIVAL FACTIONS HAS BEEN CHANCES FOR IMPROVED U-S-IRANIAN RELATIONS. PROSPECTS FOR BETTER TIES BLOSSOMED EARLY IN THE YEAR. BUT WHAT MR. KEMP CALLS "THE TEHRAN SPRING" SOON GOT MIRED IN INTRA-FACTIONAL DISPUTE. // KEMP ACT // IT IS NOW MUCH LESS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE ANY EARLY BREAKTHROUGH IN U-S-IRANIAN RELATIONS. EVEN THE PEOPLE-TO-PEOPLE DIALOGUE WHICH MR. KHATAMI HAS SPOKEN SO FERVENTLY AND SO PASSIONATELY ABOUT HAS BEEN SETBACK AS RIGHT WING THUGS IN IRAN INTIMIDATED AMERICAN TOURISTS AND PUT OUT NOMINAL DEATH THREATS ON POTENTIAL AMERICAN VISITORS. // END ACT // MR. KEMP SAYS UNLESS PRESIDENT KHATAMI SHOWS THAT HE CAN OFFSET THIS CHALLENGE AND PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SECURITY ENVIRONMENT TO NURTURE FURTHER EYCHANGES, HOPES FOR AN IRANIAN-AMERICAN THAW MAY FREEZE. THIS COMING FEBRUARY IRAN WILL MARK THE TWENTIETH ANNIVERSARY OF THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION. THE ANNIVERSARY COMES AT A TIME WHEN A STRONG REFORMIST MOVEMENT IS GAINING MOMENTUM IN THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC. ANALYSTS SAY, DESPITE THE SHORT-TERM SETBACKS THIS YEAR, THE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE DEEP IMPRINTS ON THE COUNTRY'S FUTURE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE. (SIGNED) NEB/AJ/KL 22-Dec-98 1:43 PM EST (1843 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .