DATE=7/14/2000 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT TITLE=CHINA - ISRAEL - AWACS NUMBER=5-46670 BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN DATELINE=WASHINGTON INTERNET=YES CONTENT= VOICED AT: Reissue with number // EDITORS: Note references to Southeast Asia, Russia, and Britain. // INTRO: Israel's decision to stop the sale of an airborne radar system to China may force Beijing to look elsewhere for the sophisticated military equipment. But correspondent Stephanie Mann reports some analysts in the United States believe the deal with Israel may not be completely dead. TEXT: Several years ago, when China began looking to acquire an airborne warning and control system, Israel, Russia and Britain were competing for the sale. In the end, Israel won the bid and decided to cooperate with Russia, which was to provide the Ilyushin aircraft while Israel provided the radar system. The 250-million dollar deal for the Phalcon radar system was to be only the first phase. Security analyst Jing Dong Yuan says the deal gave China an option to purchase more planes equipped with the sophisticated radar. ///YUAN ACT /// This will be only one. And China has shown some interest, and probably Israel has agreed that in case China is satisfied with this one, it will purchase another three to seven, according to the reports. So, it is a gradual step toward enhancing its overall command control and communication and intelligence capability. /// END ACT /// Mr. Yuan, a senior researcher with the East Asia Non- Proliferation Program at the Monterey Institute of International Studies in California, says the Phalcon system would not have changed the balance of power between China and Taiwan in terms of military capability. But he says China's command control and intelligence would have greatly benefited. He says it would have extended the People's Liberation Army's surveillance capabilities from less than 100 kilometers to about 400 kilometers. The director of the Asian Studies Center at the Heritage Foundation in Washington, Larry Wortzel agrees. He says the Phalcon airborne radar system would have allowed China to look out over not only the Taiwan Strait but also the entire South China Sea. Mr. Wortzel explains that because it is airborne, the Phalcon system eliminates the limitations posed by the horizon and the curvature of the earth that restrict the range of surface radar systems. /// WORTZEL ACT ONE // That would have extended the range of both air- to-surface and surface-to-surface and also air- to-air missiles significantly for the People's Liberation Army. They could have targeted further and put more both potentially American and Taiwan targets at risk, or Southeast Asian targets at risk. It would permit the radar to acquire a target and then to electronically send out data to other aircraft or to the missile itself that says, "Okay, there's your target. Go get it." /// END ACT /// The United States was concerned about the increased threat posed not only to Taiwan but also to U-S forces if they had to intervene on Taiwan's behalf. And Washington was putting pressure on Israel to cancel the sale. Moreover, the renewed effort to achieve Middle East peace means that Israel will need more U-S aid to help implement whatever agreement may be reached. Larry Wortzel says Israel took all that into consideration in deciding to halt the sale. He says Israel must have realized it was not worth losing 17 billion dollars in U-S aid just to make one billion dollars in a sale to China that puts American forces at risk. But Mr. Wortzel and Jing Dong Yuan agree the issue is not yet finished. As Mr. Yuan points out, the Israeli statement said the sale has been suspended. And an Israeli spokesman said if the circumstances change, Israel will look for ways to implement the deal with China again. Mr. Wortzel says he expects China to go back to Britain to see if it is still interested in making the sale. But in the meanwhile, he says China may continue to work with Israel. /// WORTZEL ACT TWO /// I think the first thing that will happen is probably they will hire a few Israeli scientists quietly and secretly and pursue it in secret. I don't think this is a dead issue. /// END ACT /// A specialist on Chinese military issues, June Teufel Dreyer, agrees China will continue its efforts to acquire an airborne warning and control system - whether from Israel or elsewhere. /// DREYER ACT /// Many countries do have this kind of technology, so I imagine the Chinese could get this through a third country. It is also, of course, possible for Israel to sell the Phalcon, or some technology related thereto, to the third country, which then transfers that to China. And of course, if Israel has cancelled this sale, there is still nothing to prevent Israel from transferring the technology directly to China or for Israel aircraft technicians to turn up in China as advisors. So, I don't think we've seen the last of this. /// END ACT /// Ms. Teufel Dreyer is a political science professor at the University of Miami. She says China sees the U-S pressure that prompted Israel to suspend the Phalcon deal as U-S interference in Sino-Israeli relations. And she says that may make Beijing wary of cutting any new overt deals with Israel. // REST OPTIONAL // Professor Teufel Dreyer points out that Israel has transferred technology to China for many years, even before the two countries had diplomatic relations when China was still openly supporting Israel's Middle East adversaries. Larry Wortzel says Israel and Britain must consider their desire for defense cooperation with the United States when deciding whether to sell military equipment to China. He says the United States will certainly question its future cooperation with any country if there's a possibility that cooperation may end up helping a country like China, which has made threats of force against U-S ships. (Signed) NEB/SMN/PW 14-Jul-2000 11:17 AM EDT (14-Jul-2000 1517 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .