SLUG: 5-48670 Yearender - Foreign Policy (1) DATE: NOTE NUMBER:









/// EDS: This is the first of three reports surveying the foreign-policy problems and opportunities that President-elect George W. Bush will face when he takes office next month. The three reports are written so they can be used either separately or as a series. ///

INTRO: President-elect Bush's choice to be his Secretary of State, General Colin Powell, says the new U-S administration will remain engaged with the world - fully involved in Middle East peace efforts and maintaining sanctions on Iraq. But General Powell says he also will try to reduce U-S military deployments overseas and mount fewer humanitarian interventions. These pronouncements followed a presidential campaign in which there was not much talk about foreign policy. Now analysts are weighing in with advice on matters large and small. (In the first of three reports,) V-O-A's Ed Warner tells us how the experts think the new administration will handle foreign-policy issues.

TEXT: Getting it all together. That is the prime concern of a group of former U-S policy makers and other analysts, in a report just issued by the research organization RAND. They urge more coherence in the new president's foreign policy - a consistent strategy that both Americans and the rest of the world can count on.

Robert Hunter, a former U-S ambassador to NATO, says Democrats and Republicans who contributed to the report agreed on some basic changes:

/// HUNTER ACT ///

We are urging that the president create a new strategic planning office within the White House - something no president has ever had - to try to bring together the different issues, the different choices, the different requirements to do some forward planning, rather than just reacting to issues as they come along.

/// END ACT ///

Mr. Hunter notes the report asks Congress for a 20 percent increase in non-defense foreign policy expenditures, which includes paying U-S dues to the United Nations.

Zalmay Khalilzad, who has served in senior positions in the U-S Defense Department, says the new administration must match strategy with resources. If there is too great a gap between them, either overseas commitments must be reduced or spending on them increased:


We agreed that selective global leadership should be the overall U-S objective - replacing, if you like, containment that guided the nation's foreign and defense policies for the Cold War period. In addition, we agreed that strengthening our alliances and moving toward increased responsibility and leadership sharing should be a dominant element, a second component of our overall strategy.

/// END ACT ///

Ted Carpenter, vice president for foreign policy and defense studies at Washington's Cato Institute, agrees selectivity will be vital for President Bush's foreign policy because, in his opinion, the United States is over-extended and making too many unnecessary enemies.

He finds an alarming increase in anti-Americanism around the world:


The fact that President-elect Bush has talked about perhaps more humility in U-S foreign policy is a very good sign because there is growing resistance to what is perceived as U-S arrogance around the world. It is not just long-time adversaries - so-called "rogue states," or even countries like Russia or China. But even long-standing allies of the United States in Europe and East Asia are growing increasingly annoyed at what is seen as a swaggering U-S foreign policy, and a tendency to use military force without sufficient justification.

/// END ACT ///

Mr. Carpenter can take comfort from some remarks of President-elect Bush's choice for national security adviser, Condoleezza Rice. She says there have been too many questionable overseas interventions. "You have to be able to exercise power smartly," she cautions," and that means not always trying to use it." (Signed)

OPT OUTRO: Ed Warner's next report on the foreign-policy outlook for the Bush administration will look at the contentious issue of a new national missile defense system for the United States.