Nuclear Targeting Project
Providing analysis and information about nuclear war planning and effects to strengthen the public debate about U.S. requirements in a multipolar environment
For the first time, the United States faces the potential of confronting two large nuclear-armed states simultaneously. This challenge has led to calls that a larger and more diverse U.S. nuclear arsenal is needed to ensure the credibility of its deterrent against Russia and China. These calls are exacerbated by the expiration of New START, the last nuclear arms limitation treaty between the United States and Russia, in February 2026. Unfortunately, the technical analytical basis for U.S. nuclear force structure sizing is largely subjective, abstract, or hidden behind a wall of secrecy. To better assess the calls for increasing the U.S. nuclear arsenal, policymakers and the public urgently need better quantitative analysis to be able to debate and decide the future of U.S. nuclear policy and avoid wasteful or counterproductive posturing.
The Nuclear Targeting Project, co-developed by the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) and the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), aims to address the gap in open-source qualitative data by providing estimates on the types and number of targets the United States may hold at risk in Russia and China to achieve different objectives, the follow-on analysis of what types of nuclear arsenals and plans would potentially be needed to achieve these objectives, and the radioactive fallout effects of nuclear employment if predicted war plans were executed.
This project builds on a 2001 NRDC study that examined U.S. nuclear targeting, war planning, and the effects of various strike plans using the nuclear arsenal at the time to provide recommendations for reducing excessive capabilities. Since then, U.S. nuclear and conventional capabilities, as well as potential targets in Russia and China, have changed significantly.
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The Nuclear Targeting Project is co-led by Matthew McKinzie and Hans M. Kristensen in collaboration with Ticora Jones, Bemnet Alemayehu, Eric Ashcroft, Steve Hanna, Matthew Korda, Susan Lee, Ryan Morrison, and Cameron Vega. The Project also collaborates with other experts and organizations.
This project is supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York.