Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States
Appendix III: Unclassified Working Papers


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Attachment 2. Unclassified Working Papers Appendix III: Unclassified Working Papers Prefatory Note Part I Roundtable Topics, Panelists and Summaries of Panelists' Remarks Iran and Iraq: Michael Eisenstadt, Kenneth Katzman, Kenneth Timmerman and Seth Carus Russia/Ukraine: Bruce Blair, Stephen Blank, Daniel Gouré and Nadia Schadlow China/Japan/Korea: Gerrit Gong, Selig Harrison, Robert Manning and David Wright India/Pakistan: Daniel Gouré, Michael Krepon and David Tanks North Africa/Israel: Seth Carus and Dov Zakheim Technology Transfers: David C. Isby, John M. Myrah and Henry Sokolski Pathways for Transfer: Dennis M. Gormley, Aaron Karp and Richard T. Cupitt Supplier Nations: Robbin Laird, Tim McCarthy, Keith Payne, David Smith Part II Roundtable Papers Bruce Blair: "The Plight of the Russian Military and Nuclear Control" Stephen J. Blank: "Nuclear Strategy and Nuclear Proliferation in Russian Strategy" W. Seth Carus: "Ballistic Missiles in Iran and Iraq: 1988-1998" W. Seth Carus: "Israeli Ballistic Missile Developments" Richard T. Cupitt: "Export Controls and Missile Technology Transfers" Michael Eisenstadt: "Missiles and Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) in Iraq and Iran" Gerrit W. Gong: "Assessing the Ballistic Missile Threat: China-Japan-Korea-Taiwan Issues" Dennis M. Gormley : "Transfer Pathways for Cruise Missiles" Daniel Gouré: "The Evolution of Russian Nuclear Forces: Working to a Plan" Daniel Gouré : "WMD and Ballistic Missiles in South Asia" Selig S. Harrison: "Missile Capabilities in Northeast Asia: Japan, South Korea and North Korea" David C. Isby: "Barriers to Proliferation And Pathways to Transfer: Building Ballistic Missile Capabilities Under MTCR" Aaron Karp: "Technological Pathways to Ballistic Missiles in Iran" Kenneth Katzman: "Iran's Long Range Missile Capabilities" Kenneth Katzman: "Iraq's Long Range Missile Capabilities" Michael Krepon: "India, Pakistan, and the Ballis tic Missile Threat" Robbin Laird: "Rethinking the Role of Western States as Supplier Nations" Robert A. Manning: "Missile Proliferation Threats in Northeast Asia" John M. Myrah: "The Proliferation of Ballistic Missiles: What Should We Do to Stop It?" Keith Payne: "The Missile Technology Control Regime--European Involvement and Compliance Issues" Nadia Schadlow: "Patterns of Ukrainian Conduct" David J. Smith: "Friendly Countries and Missile Proliferation: Dealing With Different Perceptions" Henry Sokolski: "Space Technology Transfers and Missile Proliferation" David R. Tanks: "Ballistic Missiles in South Asia: Are ICBMs a Future Possibility?" Kenneth R. Timmerman: "Rogue States and Ballistic Missiles: Lessons and Prospects" David C. Wright: "An Analysis of the North Korean Missile Program" Part III Additional Papers Kurt Guthe and Keith Payne: "The Unique Value of Ballistic Missiles for Deterrence and Coercion: The Chinese Case" Keith Payne and Robert Rudney: "The Unique Value of Ballistic Missiles for Deterrence and Coercion" Gil Siegert: "The Chinese Space Program" Gil Siegert: "Potential Threats from Global Commercial Space Capabilities" System Planning Corporation: "Non-Proliferation Issues" 1. France 2. Great Britain 3. Germany 4. Japan 5. South Korea


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