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[Index]

Prognosis for China, Page 54, Notes, Rev. 4

Notes for Section 1: The Ostensible Problem

Note 1: Foreign Affairs, July/August 1998, Charles W. Freeman, Jr., Preventing War in the Taiwan Strait, p. 7.

Note 2: Stratfor.com, Latest Information press reports, August 1999, p. 14.

Note 3: Patrick Tyler, A Great Wall, Public Affairs, The Century Foundation, 1999, p.6.

Note 4: Stratfor.com, Global Intelligence Update, China, September 17, 1999, Chinese Report Frames U.S. as Enemy, Pp. 1-2.

Note 5: The Economist, July 27, 1999, The truth about Taiwan, p. 1 (of article).

Note 6: Op. Cit., Stratfor.com, p. 10.

Note 7: Op. Cit., Stratfor.com, p. 11.

Note 8: Op. Cit., Stratfor.com, p. 9.

Note 9: The Washington Post, August 13, 1999, Michael Laris and Steven Mufson, China Mulls Use of Force Off Taiwan, Experts Say; Warnings Perceived as Effort to Gauge Likely U.S. Reaction, p. 1 (of article).

Note 10: The New York Times, August 13, 1999, Jane Perlez, China and U.S. Are Reported to Trade Threats on Taiwan, Pp. 1-3 (of article).

Note 11: The Heritage Foundation Backgrounder, Sept. 28, 1999, James H. Anderson, Tensions Across the Strait: China=s Military Options Against Taiwan Short of War, p. 3.

Note 12: Op. Cit., Stratfor.com, p. 5.

Note 13: The South China Morning Post, August 20, 1999, Peace >preferred, not guaranteed=, Daniel Kwan, p. 1 (of article).

Note 14: Stratfor Special Report, August 20, 1999, China Cautions U.S. Not to Interfere, p. 1.

Note 15: The South China Morning Post, Aug. 16, 1999, PLA ready for worst, says Beijing,

p. 1 (of article).

Note 16: Stratfor Global Intelligence Update, August 16, 1999, China=s Available Military Options and its Relations with the U.S., Page 1.

Note 17: Op. Cit., Anderson, p. 1.

Note 18: The Wall Street Journal, October 1, 1999, Arthur Waldron, Will Communism Live Past 50?, p. A14.

Note 19: Stratfor Special Report, October 1, 1999, Zhu=s Comments Warning for World, p. 1.

Note 20: The Hong Kong Standard, October 1, 1999, Fong Tak-ho, Zhu=s sabre rattling geared for Western ears, Pp. 1-2 (of article).

Note 21: The Hong Kong Standard, October 2, 1999, Fong Tak-ho, Jiang vows to reunify Taiwan, p. 1 (of article).

Note 22: The Straits Times, October 1, 1999, >Key factor is whether Taipei will push for split,=

p. 1 (of article).

Note 23: The Straits Times, October 5, 1999, Larry Teo, >70% of Taiwanese= back two-states theory, p. 1 (of article).

Note 24: The Straits Times, Oct. 9, 1999, Re-writing the history of Taiwan, Pp. 1-4 (of article).

Note 25: The Straits Times, October 9, 1999, Changing the way students see cross-strait ties,

p. 1 (of article).

Prognosis for China, Page 55, Notes (Continued), Rev. 4

Note 26: The South China Morning Post, October 13, 1999, Vivien Pik-kwan Chan, Jiang mounts new attack on >two states= theory, p. 1.

Note 27: The Straits Times, October 16, 1999, China call to halt US arms to Taiwan,

p. 1 (of article).

Note 28: Foreign Affairs, November/December, 1999, Lee Teng-hui, Understanding Taiwan,

p. 10.

Note 29: People=s Daily, November 4, 1999, Xinhua Denounces Lee Teng-hui=s ATwo China=s@ Remarks, p. 1 (of article).

Note 30: The Straits Times, November 4, 1999, China attacks Taiwan leader=s claims of new national identity, p. 1 (of article).

Note 31: The Straits Times, November 8, 1999, PLA shows its might in eastern China,

Pp. 1-2 (of article).

Notes for Section 2: The Actual Problem

Note 1: The Atlantic Monthly, August 1999, Robert D. Kaplan, China: A World Power Again,

p. 16.

Note 2: Wiliam A. Joseph, ed., China Briefing, published by M.E. Sharpe in cooperation with the Asia Society, Minxin Pei, 1997, Racing Against Time: Institutional Decay and Renewal in China, Pp. 11-12.

Note 3: The Atlantic Monthly, September 1999, Jeffrey Tayler, China=s Wild West, p. 22.

Note 4: The Hong Kong Standard, September 15, 1999, Pamela Pun, Activists focus of terror probes, p. 1 (of article).

Note 5: The Hong Kong Standard, September 27, 1999, Beijing pledges more help for minorities, p. 1 (of article).

Note 6: Jane=s World Armies, December, 1998, China, People=s Republic, p. 8.

Note 7: The South China Morning Post, Sept. 18, 1999, Teenage Bomber Executed,

p.1 (of article).

Note 8: The South China Morning Post, October 7, 1999, Associated Press, Xinjiang attacks end with two dead in police shootout, Pp. 1-2 (of article).

Note 9: The Hong Kong Standard, October 7, 1999, Six Muslims executed for terrorist activity,

p. 1 (of article).

Note 10: The Straits Times, October 21, 1999, Agence France-Presse, Beijing executes Xinjiang >terrorists=, p. 1 (of article).

Note 11: Foreign Affairs, January/February 1998, Melvyn C. Goldstein, The Dalai Lama=s Dilemma, Pp. 86-7. Essay adapted from The Snow Lion and the Dragon: China, Tibet and the Dalai Lama.

Note 12: Ibid., p. 88.

Note 13: Op. Cit., Goldstein, p. 92.

Note 14: Stratfor.com, China=s Available Military Options and its Relations with the U.S., August 16, 1999, p. 9.

Note 15: The Hong Kong Standard, October 15, 1999, Police >beat Tibet activist to death=,

Pp. 1-2 (of article).

Prognosis for China, Page 56, Notes (Continued), Rev. 4.1

Note 16: World Press Review, September 1997, Matt Forney, China=s Angry Workers, p. 28. Also see note 17.

Note 17: For Your Eyes Only, October 24, 1999, James F. Dunnigan, CHINA: Continued Separatist Unrest in Tibet and Xinjiang, p. 1.

Note 18: The South China Morning Post, October 22, 1999, Associated Press, Dalai Lama accused of terrorist attacks, Pp. 1-3 (of article).

Note 19: The South China Morning Post, October 23, 1999, Associated Press, Tibetan leader blamed for blast, Pp. 1-2 (of article).

Note 20: The South China Morning Post, November 6, 1999, Agence France-Presse, Laid-off testile workers riot, Pp. 1-2 (of article). AAbout 1,000 laid-off textile workers clashed yesterday with 50 policemen in riot gear after protesting for four days in a row against government corruption and poor management.@

Note 21: The Straits Times, November 6, 1999, Jobless clash with police amid protests, Pp. 1-2 (of article). AThe 1,000 protesters were among 4,000 workers at the factory which stopped production last year due to poor management and corruption...@

Note 22: John Brian Starr, Understanding China, Hill and Wang, 1999, Introduction, p. 7.

Note 23: The Weekly Standard, May 24, 1999, Arthur Waldron, A Regime in Crisis, p. 27.

Note 24: The South China Morning Post, Sept. 16, 1999, Miners block railway over bankrupsy,

Pp. 1-2 (of article).

Note 25: Op. Cit., Pie, p. 33. Pei cites Zhongguo shehui fazhan ziliao, 1992 (Data on Chinese Social Development, 1992) by the China Statistical Publishing Co., 1992, p. 263.

Note 26: Op. Cit., Kaplan, p 18.

Note 27: The South China Morning Post, September 28, 1999, Mark O=Neill, Vice-like grip on oldest profession loosened, Pp. 1-2 (of article).

Note 28: The South China Morning Post, September 28, 1999, Ill-gotten gains auctioned off,

Pp. 1-2 (of article).

Note 29: The Straits Times, Sept. 25, 1999, Communist Party expels top official for graft,

p. 1 (of article).

Note 30: Beijing Review, August 30, 1999, Ye Lou, Audit Reveals Shocking Extent of Corruption, p. 22.

Note 31: The Straits Times, Sept. 17, 1999, Massive graft scandal in south China,

p. 1 (of article).

Note 32: The Hong Kong Standard, September 24, 1999, Corruption canker gnaws ant nation, Pp. 1-2 (of article).

Note 33: The South China Morning Post, October 9, 1999, Vivien Pik-kwan Chan, Top NPC cadre suspected of graft, Pp. 1-2 (of article).

Note 34: The Straits Times, October 10, 1999, Shantou Customs officials replaced over smuggling, Pp. 1-2 (of article).

Note 35: The Hong Kong Standard, October 11, 1999, Factory boss slain in wake of reforms on corruption, p. 1 (of article).

Note 36: The South China Morning Post, October 12, 1999, Mark O=Neill, Beijing reveals $77b currency fraud, Pp. 1-3 (of article).

Note 37: The South China Morning Post, October 12, 1999, Daniel Kwan, Anti-smuggling unit catches 67 suspects, Pp. 1-2 (of article).

Prognosis for China, Page 57, Notes (Continued), Rev. 4

Note 38: The Hong Kong Standard, October 12, 1999, Media exhort crackdown after NPC official=s probe, Pp. 1-2 (of article).

Note 39: The Straits Times, October 15, 1999, China fires more than 1,000 prosecutors in graft purge, Pp 1-2 (of article).

Note 40: The Hong Kong Standard, October 6, 1999, Zhu raiders net Shantou smugglers,

Pp. 1-2 (of article).

Note 41: The Straits Times, November 5, 1999, Cops corrupt and rude, says Li Peng,

Pp. 1-2 (of article).

Note 42: Xinhua, November 3, 1999, NPC Chairman on Police Corruption, p. 1.

Note 43: Willem van Kemenade, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Inc., Vintage Books, 1997,

Pp. 18-19.

Note 44: The Wall Street Journal, September 13, 1999, He Qinglian, Relation Between China=s Politics, Society Hurts Economic Reforms, Pp. 1-2 (of article).

Note 45: U.S. News & World Report, September 5, 1996, Tim Zommermann et. al., China takes a deep breath, p. 36.

Note 46: Op. Cit., Qinglian, p. 2 (of article).

Note 47: Ibid., p. 37.

Note 48: Foreign Policy, Spring 1998, David M. Lampton, China, p. 26. The original source is The World Bank, China 2020, Clear Water, Blue Skies, p. 5.

Note 49: The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, Fall 1999, Neil C. Hughes, Cities Without Walls, Pp. 103-106.

Note 50: The South China Morning Post, October 18, 1999, Reuters, Jiang says China=s population his biggest problem, p. 2 (of article).

Note 51: Op. Cit., Kaplan, p. 18.

Note 52: Op. Cit., Jane=s World Armies, p.7.

Note 53: Op. Cit., Joseph, Pp. 54-56.

Note 54: Aviation Week and Space Technology, April 19, 1999, Paul Mann, Clinton Disappoints Zhu=s Trade Hopes, p. 35.

Note 55: U.S. News & World Report, August 9, 1999, Steven Butler, Why Beijing=s grumpy old men are so grumpy, p. 31.

Note 56: Op. Cit., Waldron, p. 29.

Note 57: Stratfor.com, Weekly Analysis, September 7, 1999, Indonesia=s Crisis, The Lesson for China, Pp. 2-12.

Note 58: Foreign Policy, Fall, 1999, Minxin Pei, Will China Become Another Indonesia?,

Pp. 94-95.

Note 59: Ibid., p. 108.

Note 60: Op. Cit., Qinglian, Pp. 4-5.

Note 61: The Wall Street Journal, September 13, 1999, W.J.F. Jenner, An Ever-Changing Past Gives Few Clues to China=s Future, p. 17.

Note 62: Op. Cit., Hughes, p. 104.

Note 63: The Hong Kong Standard, September 26, 1999, Non-conformity still catches Beijing=s fury despite reforms, p. 1 (of article).

Note 64: Current History, September, 1999, Bruce Gilley, Jiang Zemin, On the Right Side of History?, p. 249.

Prognosis for China, Page 58, Notes (Continued), Rev. 4

Note 65: The Naval War College Review, Spring 1999, A. James Gregor, Qualified Engagement, U.S. Policy and Security Concerns, p. 83.

3. The Economic Dimension of the Actual Problem

Note 1: Foreign Affairs, Sept./Oct. 1999, Gerald Segal, Does China Matter?, p. 25.

Note 2: The Wall Street Journal, September 13, 1999, He Qinglian, Relation Between China=s Politics, Society Hurts Economic Reforms, Pp. 1-2 (of article). [Same as Sect. 2 Note 44].

Note 3: Op. Cit., Qinglian, p. 1 (of article).

Note 4: Op. Cit., Segal, Pp. 25-26.

Note 5: Foreign Policy, Spring 1998, David M. Lampton, China, p. 26. The original source is The World Bank, China 2020, Clear Water, Blue Skies, p. 5. [Same as Section 2 Note 48]

Note 6: The Fletcher Forum of World Affairs, Fall 1999, Neil C. Hughes, Cities Without Walls, Pp. 103-106. [Same as Section 2 Note 49].

Note 7: Op. Cit., Starr, p. 8.

Note 8: Strategic Comments, January, 1999, International Institute for Strategic Studies, The end of China=s era of growth, Summaries, p. 1.

Note 9: The Economist, May 2, 1998, The worst banking system in Asia, p. 65.

Note 10: Ibid., p. 66.

Note 11: Op. Cit., Segal (Foreign Affairs), p. 26.

Note 12: Foreign Affairs, July/August 1998, Nicholas R. Lardy, China and the Asian Contagion, p. 80.

Note 13: The Straits Times, November 5, 1999, Reuters, Key banks remain servants to Beijing,

p. 2 (of article).

Note 14: Op. Cit, Segal (Foreign Affairs), Pp. 27-28.

Note 15: Op. Cit., Segal (Foreign Affairs), p. 28.

Note 16: The Straits Times, September 28, 1999, China will push reforms into 21st century, says Jiang, p. 2 (of article).

Note 17: Foreign Affairs, March April 1997, Anita Chan & Robert A. Senser, China=s Troubled Waters, p. 110.

Note 18: World Press Review, September 1997, Matt Forney, China=s Angry Workers, p. 28.

[Same as Section 2 Note 16. See also Section 2 Note 17.]

Note 19: Current History, September 1998, Barry Naughton, China=s Economy, Buffeted from Within and Without, p. 276.

Note 20: Straits Times, Sept. 17, 1999, Zhu wants faster state-arm reforms, p. 2 (of article).

Note 21: Foreign Affairs, July/August 1998, Neil C. Hughes, Smashing the Iron Rice Bowl,

p. 76.

Note 22: Stratfor.com, Stratfor Commentary, Aug. 23, 1999, Chinese Municipal Government Purge May Increase Instabilities, p. 1.

Note 23: Business Week, July 19, 1999, Paul Magnusson, How Zhu=s Foes Could Undermine his Reforms, p. 67.

Note 24: The South China Morning Post, Sept. 15, 1999, Willy Wo-Lap Lam, Jiang to tell cadres to brace for reforms, p.1 (of article).

Prognosis for China, Page 59, Notes (Continued), Rev. 4

Note 25: The Washington Quarterly, Summer, 1998, Edward S. Steinfeld, The Asian Financial Crisis: Beijing=s Year of Reckoning, p 41.

Note 26: Op. Cit., Van Kemenade, p. 359.

Note 27: Op. Cit., Starr, p. 6.

Note 28: Op. Cit., Chan and Senser, Pp. 104-116.

Note 29: The South China Morning Post, October 20, 1999, 4,000 mining deaths >alright=,

Pp. 1-2 (of article). Note the article gives ILO estimates of Amore than 6,00 fatal accidents occur in only the small mines on the mainland each year.@

Note 30: Op. Cit., Waldron, p. 29. [Same as Section 2 Note 56].

Note 31: Op. Cit., Lardy, p 88.

Note 32: Op. Cit., Naughton, p. 277.

Note 33: Op. Cit., Starr, p. 5.

Note 34: John Brian Starr, Understanding China, Hill and Wang, 1999, Introduction, p. 7. [Same

as Section 2 Note 22].

Note 35: Op. Cit., Kaplan, p. 18. [Same as Section 2 Note 51].

Note 36: Op. Cit., Jane=s World Armies, p.7. [Same as Section 2 Note 52].

Note 37: Op. Cit., Joseph, Pp. 54-56. [Same as Section 2 Note 53]

Note 38: The Arizona Daily Star, Sep. 5, 1999, Thomas L. Friedman, Mutually assured economic destruction links China, Taiwan, Section F, p. 2.

Note 39: Op. Cit, Gregor, p. 79.

Note 40: Op. Cit., Anderson, p. 10.

4. The Military Threat

Note 1: The River and the Gauntlet, Maj. Gen. S.L.A. Marshall, USA, Warner Books, 1952,

Pp. 1-2.

Note 2: Future War!: What the Air Force, Army and Navy Learned in the Gulf War, Vol. 1, 1999, Andy Lightbody, What did the Air Force Learn from the Gulf War?, p. 42.

Note 3: Ibid., p. xiv.

Note 4: Eliot A. Cohen and John Gooch, Military Misfortunes, The Anatomy of Failure in War, 1991, Vintage Books, p. 173.

Note 5: Ibid., p. 182.

Note 6: Ibid., p. 174.

Note 7: Ibid., p. 176.

Note 8: Ibid., p. 177.

Note 9: Ibid., Pp. 192-193.

Note 10: John R. Bruning, Crimson Sky, The Air Battle for Korea, Brassy=s, 1999, p. 57.

Note 11: The Eighth Voyage of the Dragon, A History of China=s Quest for Seapower, Bruce

Swanson, Naval Institute Press, 1982, p. 191.

Note 12: Ibid., p. 188.

Note 13: Ibid., p. 189.

Note 14: Ibid. Pp. 190-191.

Note 15: Ibid. P. 269.

Note 16: Gerald Segal, Defending China, Oxford University Press, 1985, Pp. 197-199.

Prognosis for China, Page 60, Notes (Continued), Rev. 4

Note 17: Secretary of Defense William Cohen, Report to Congress Pursuant to the FY99 Appropriations Bill: The Security Situation in the Taiwan Strait, p. 27. [Hereinafter Cohen FY 99].

Note 18: Op. Cit., Andersen, p. 8.

Note 19: Orbis, Fall 1996, Felix K. Chang, Conventional War in the Taiwan Strait, p. 580. Chang cites the U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings, May, 1996, Thomas Hirschfeld, The Year of the Rat, p. 58.

Note 20: Land Warfare Papers, The Institute of Land Warfare, Association of the U.S. Army, Maj. Gen. Edward B. Atkenson, USA, Ret., The People=s Republic of China in Transition: An Assessment of the People=s Liberation Army, p. 11.

Note 21: Hansgeorg Jentschura, Dieter Jung and Peter Mikel, Warships of the Imperial Japanese Navy, 1869-1945, Naval Institute Press, Revised ed., 1977, p. 61, p. 231.

Note 22: Paul H. Silverstone, U.S. Warships of World War 2, Naval Institute Press, 1965,

Pp. 260-269.

Note 23: H. T. Lenton, American Fleet and Escort Destroyers, Vol. 1., Doubleday, 1971,

Pp. 10-11; p. 13.

Note 24: Op. Cit., Anderson, p. 14.

Note 25: Op. Cit., Cohen FY 99, p.11.

Note 26: Jane=s Online, September 6, 1999, Jane=s Sentinel Security Assessment, CHINA AND NORTHEAST ASIA, Update 3, NAVY, China, Pp. 4-5.

Note 27: Op. Cit., Jane=s World Armies, p. 5.

Note 28: The Military Balance, 1998/99, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Oxford University Press, 1997, p. 180.

Note 29: Op. Cit., Anderson, Pp. 3-4.

Note 30: Agence France Presse, May 6, 1999, China planned to attack Taiwan=s frontline islands in 1995-96 crisis, p. 1 (of article).

Note 31: Secretary of Defense William Cohen, Report to Congress Pursuant to Section 1226 of the FY98 National Defense Authorization Act: The Pattern of Military Modernization of the People=s Republic of China, Pp. 16-17. [Hereinafter Cohen FY 98]

Note 32: People=s Daily, September 11, 1999, Chinese Military Exercises on South and East China Sea Coasts, p. 2 (of article).

Note 33: The South China Morning Post, September 10, 1999, Vivien Pik-Kwan Chan, New warning on Taiwan, p. 1 (of article).

Note 34: Associated Press, Sept. 10, 1999, Joe McDonald, China Conducts Mock Taiwan Invasion, p. 1 (of article).

Note 35: The Hong Kong Standard, September 10, 1999, Thousands of PLA troops in invasion drills, p. 1 (of article).

Note 36: The Hong Kong Standard, September 11, 1999, Beijing ups ante in stand-off,

p. 1 (of article).

Note 37: The Straits Times, September 12, 1999, Fresh warning to Taiwan after PLA exercises, p. 1 (of article).

Note 38: Associated Press, Sept. 15, 1999, Taipei, Taiwan Fretted Over Chinese Drills, p. 1.

Note 39: Combat Fleets of the World, 1990-1991, Bernard Prezelin, ed., US Naval Institute, 1990, p. 88.

Prognosis for China, Page 61, Notes (Continued), Rev. 4

Note 40: Jane=s Fighting Ships, 1998-1999, Jane=s Information Group, 1998, p. 134.

Note 41: Op. Cit., Cohen FY 99, p. 25.

Note 42: Op. Cit., Jane=s Online, p. 7.

Note 43: The Military Balance, 1997-98, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Oxford University Press, 1997, p. 178.

Note 44: The Straits Times, October 2, 1999, Mary Kwang, Show of Strength, p. 2 (of article).

Note 45: The South China Morning Post, October 2, 1999, Nuclear weapons cap show of might, p. 1 (of article).

Note 46: Mark P. Parillo, The Japanese Merchant Marine in World War II, Naval Institute Press, 1993, p. 174.

Note 47: The Military Balance, 1999/2000, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Oxford University Press, 1999, p. 188.

Note 48: Orbis, Fall 1996, Felix K. Chang, Conventional War in the Taiwan Strait, p.588.

Note 49: Ibid., p. 589.

Note 50: Ibid., p. 591.

Note 51: Ibid., Pp. 598-599.

Note 52: Ibid., p. 597.

Note 52: Op. Cit., Jane=s Online, Pp. 2-3.

Note 53: Op. Cit., Jane=s Online, p. 3.

Note 54: KWIC (Kanwa Japanese News Service), December 30, 1998, The Chinese Navy replaced its air-defense system, Pp. 1-2.

Note 55: KWIC (Kanwa Japanese News Service), September 5, 1998, Chinese Navy seems to be equipping new air defense system, p. 1.

Note 56: U.S. Naval Institute Naval Database, Aug. 23, 1999, Nations/Alliances/Geographic Regions - Asia - China - Plans and Programs, p. 11.

Note 57: Op. Cit., Chang, p. 592.

Note 58: Ibid., Gregor, p. 73. Note that a CNA news bulletin dated August 30, 1999 from Taipei reports AThe national radio station of Russia reported in a Mandarin broadcast last weekend that two Russian-built destroyers equipped with supersonic anti-ship missiles will be put on combat duty in the mainland Chinese Navy next year. The ...missile is the most advanced in the world today. It may be the >Moskit Guided Missile= mentioned in a study released in October 1997 by the...Heritage Foundation...@

Note 59: The South China Morning Post, October 6, 1999, Agence France-Presse, Spy satellites said to track US warships, p. 1 (of article).

Note 60: The Hong Kong Standard, Oct. 6, 1999, Expert describes 17 military eyes in sky,

p.1 (of article).

Note 61: For Your Eyes Only, FYEO Express, October 5, 1999, James F. Dunnigan, p. 1.

Note 62: Op. Cit., Chang, p. 586.

Note 63: Soldier of Fortune, Feb., 1996, Susan Katz Keating, Firestorm 2005, Wargames and Warmongers (Inset) p. 37.

Note 64: Associated Press, September 27, 1999, Russia, China Plan Naval Exercises, p. 1.

Note 65: Op. Cit., The Military Balance, 1997/98, p. 176.

Note 66: The South China Morning Post, October 2, 1999, Nuclear weapons cap show of might, p. 2 (of article).

Prognosis for China, Page 62, Notes (Continued), Rev. 4

Note 67: The South China Morning Post, October 1, 1999, Reuters, Military might rolled out on anniversary, p. 1 (of article).

Note 68: The Straits Times, October 2, 1999, Mary Kwang, Show of strength, p. 1 (of article).

Note 69: The Drudge Report, October 2, 1999, Xinhua, China-Parade: New Fighter-Bombers Debut, p. 2 (of report).

Note 70: Jane=s All the World=s Aircraft, 1998-1999, Paul Jackson, Ed., Jane=s Information Group, 1998, p. 73.

Note 71: Op. Cit., Anderson, p. 6.

Note 72: Op. Cit., U.S. Naval Institute Naval Database, p. 10.

Note 73: Compuserve 1998 World Military News Database, April 9, 1998, Bruce Gilly, Scrap Value, p. 2 (of article).

Note 74: Jane=s All the World=s Fighting Ships, 1998/1999, Jane=s Information Group, 1998,

p. 119.

Note 75: Jane=s All the World=s Fighting Ships, 1997/1998, Jane=s Information Group, 1998,

p. 117.

Note 76: WIN [World Intelligence Notes], 10 September 1999, AFIO [Association of Former Intelligence Officers], China to Build Aircraft Carrier, p. 1 (of article).

Note 77: ABC News, World News Tonight, 1998, Peter Jennings, The Mystery of the Varyag: Casino of Warship?, Pp. 1-3 (of article).

Note 78: China Reform Monitor No. 145, December 15, July 27, 1998, American Foreign Policy

Council, The Aircraft Carrier Varyag: Warship or Floating Disco?, Pp. 1-2.

Note 79: CNN, February 2, 1999, Chinese plot strange new course for Soviet aircraft carrier,

Pp. 1-2. [This article reports the carrier has arrived in southern China].

Note 80: Southam News, March 21, 1998, Mark J. Porubcansky, Gambling haven on China coast buys...an aircraft carrier?, Pp. 1-3 (of article).

Note 81: Kanwa News Service, December 10, 1998, The large aircraft carrier of the former Soviet Union is on its way to Macao, p. 1. [This article reports the carrier has left Ukraine].

Note 82: Kanwa News Service, February 22, 1999, The PLA consolidate their control of the South China Sea, p. 1.

Note 83: Kanwa News Service, April 28, 1998, A vigorous faction of The Chinese Navy advocates building aircraft carriers, Pp. 1-2. This article cites Lt. Col. Han Xiaohu, author of Developing the capability of the navy long range operation, published by Modern Ships No. 110 in February, 1995 bout AUse of helicopter AWACS technology@ and A...modifying the LST in service which will allow them to carry more armed helicopters and offer effective air defense.@

Note 84: USNI Military Database, Aug. 23, 1999, Nations/Alliances/Geographic Regions: Asia C China, p.1.

Note 85: Jane=s All the World=s Aircraft, 1998-1999, Paul Jackson, Ed., Jane=s Information Group, 1998, Pp. 70-71.

Note 86: Op. Cit., Military Balance, p. 178.

Note 87: USNI Military Database, Aug 23, 1999, Nations/Alliances/Geographic Regions: Asia C Taiwan, p. 1.

Note 88: Op. Cit., Jane=s All the World=s Aircraft, 1998-1999, Pp. 70-71.

Note 89: Op. Cit., Military Balance, 1999/2000, p. 187.

Prognosis for China, Page 63, Notes (Continued), Rev. 4

Note 90: Stratfor Weekly Analysis, August 09, 1999, China=s Threat to Taiwan: The Strategy of Bluff, p. 2.

Note 91: Ibid., Pp. 2-3.

Note 92. The South China Morning Post, August 12, 1999, Jasper Becker in Beijing, Flying Dragons breathe fire into commando operations, p. 1.

.Note 93: See Jane=s Fighting Ships, 1998-1999, Jane=s Information Group, 1998, p. 149. ASince 1996 large numbers of low profile stealth craft have been active in the South China Sea areas, and have been reported as far away as the Philippines. Sizes vary from 30 to 60 meters in length and many are capable of speeds in excess of 30 knots. Most are paramilitary vessels...@

Note 94: The Straits Times, October 14, 1999, Minister says sorry for shoddy security, p. 1.

Note 95: Op. Cit., Cohen & Gooch, Pp.95-96.

Note 96: Op. Cit., Cohen & Gooch, Pp.99-100.

Note 97: Op. Cit., Cohen & Gooch, p.100.

Note 98: Op. Cit., Cohen & Gooch, p. 124.

Note 99: Op. Cit., Cohen & Gooch, p. 109.

Note 100: Chinese Military Digest, September 4, 1999, [www.gsprint.com], Philip Young, Air Defense Weapons, p. 2.

Note 101: Ibid., Pp. 3-4.

Note 102: Air Forces Monthly, October 1999, Lon Nordeen, Air Combat, The sharp end, p. 62.

Note 103: Op. Cit., Military Balance, 1998-99, p. 198.

Note 104: Op. Cit., Cohen FY 99, p. 24.

Note 105: Op. Cit., Cohen FY 99, p. 22.

Note 106: Op. Cit., Military Balance, 1997-98, p. 195.

Note 107: Op. Cit., Military Balance, 1999-2000, p. 206.

Note 108: Hans Halberstadt, Sukhoi Su-27, Design and Development of Russia=s Super Interceptor, Motorbooks International, 1992, p. 7-9.

Note 109: Ibid., p. 21.

Note 110: Bill Gunston, The Osprey Encyclopedia of Russian Aircraft, 1875-1995, Pp. viii-ix.

Note 111: Ibid., Pp. 364-365.

Note 112: Op. Cit., Jackson [ Jane=s All the World=s Aircraft], 1998-1999, p. 70.

Note 113: World Intelligence Notes [WIN], September 10, 1999, Association of Former Intelligence Officers, Section I, NIE on Russia-China Ties, p. 1.

Note 114: [Su-30 only] For Your Eyes Only, FYEO Express, Aug. 29, 1999, China, p. 2.

Note 115: David Donald, ed., The Complete Encyclopedia of World Aircraft, Aerospace Publishing, 1998, p. 629.

Note 116: Ibid., p. 630.

Note 117: Sea Classics, September, 1966, Martin Bowman, Hell Over Viet Nam, p. 39.

Note 118: Norman Franks, Aircraft Versus Aircraft, Crescent Books, 1990, p. 180.

Note 119: Op. Cit., Segal (Defending China), p. 162

Note 120: The writer has personal knowledge of this and several other aspects of the air war during the Viet Nam conflict.

Note 121: James F. Dunnigan and Albert A. Nofi, Dirty Little Secrets of the Vietnam War, St. Martin=s Press, 1999, p. 108.

Prognosis for China, Page 64, Notes (Continued), Rev. 4

Note 122: Ibid., p. 117.

Note 123: The Hong Kong Standard, November 10, 1999, Pamela Pun, PLA air force to go on offensive, p. 1 (of article).

Note 124: The South China Morning Post, November 11, 1999, Oliver Chou and Associated Press, Lanzhou general joins top echelon, p. 1 (of article). The article lists Lt. Gen. Liu Shunyao as commander of the air force; Lt. Gen. Li Yongde as a new vice commander of the air force and Lt. Gen. Wang Liangwang, previously promoted as a vice commander of

the air force.

Note 125: Documentation forwarded on 28 September 28, 1999 by Capt. Scott Hutchinson, USA, p. 3. Cover letter releasing official documents signed by John W. Bauerlein, Director of International Aviation, FAA, dated ASEP 14 1999" appears to confirm attachments are original.

Note 126: China Reform Monitor No. 125, October 5, 1998, American Foreign Policy Council, Chinese Air Force officers view USAF vulnerabilities at war game, p. 1. AAn entire class of Chinese officers from the Chinese People=s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) Air War College observed a series of U.S. Air Force air warfare exercises in Alaska, called >Cooperative Cape Thunder=...The exercises exposed U.S. air war vulnerabilities to enemy radar planes and computer warfare attacks.@

Note 127: China Reform Monitor No. 172, February 24, 1999, American Foreign Policy Council,

U.S. Military Exchanges with PLA Raise Security Concerns, p. 1. AThe Pentagon has agreed with China to expand military exchanges in 1999, in a program some U.S. officials warn will expose sensitive U.S. military know-how and increase China=s capability to project power for invasions and long-range operations...valuable military information that could assist the Chinese in combat operations against Taiwan or in the South China Sea, or for countering U.S. military forces in a conflict. For example...paratroop operations [believed essential for an invasion of Taiwan] of the U.S. Army=s 82nd Airborne Division...The [PLA] is scheduled to send several delegations of...officials involved in military logistics...to learn how the U.S. military supplies its forces in long-distance operations.@

Note 128: The South China Morning Post, November 5, 1999, Agence France-Presse, Combined efforts on plane, p. 1 (of article).

Note 129: The Straits Times, November 8, 1999, Agence France-Presse, Beijing set to acquire Israeli radar system, Pp. 1-2 (of article).

Note 130: The Hong Kong Standard, November 11, 1999, Associated Press, Israel fitting >eye in sky= on plane, p. 1 (of article).

Note 131: The Straits Times, November 10, 1999, Taipei sees serious threat in Israeli deal,

p. 1 (of article).

Note 132: The South China Morning Post, November 8, 1999, Agence France-Presse, Israeli radar >boosts PLA defenses=, Pp. 1-2 (of article).

Note 133: The Straits Times, November 12, 1999, This radar system is better than AWACS,

p. 1 (of article). The author of Prognosis for China, a radar countermeasures specialist, agrees with the unnamed author of this article.

Note 134: The Straits Times, November 10, 1999, Xinhua, Financial Times, China=s air force will no longer be defensive, p. 1 (of article).

Prognosis for China, Page 65, Notes (Continued), Rev. 4

Note 135: The Hong Kong Standard, October 27, 1999, Agence France-Presse, Beijing will achieve air superiority in five years, p. 1 (of article).

Note 136: The Straits Times, November 1, 1999, Agence France-Presse, China=s electronic weapons >a threat to Taipei in 5 years=, p. 1 (of article).

Note 137: Inside China Today, November 8, 1999, Agence France-Presse, China=s Electronic Weapons May Menace Taiwan in Five Years, Pp. 1-2 (of article).

Note 138: The Hong Kong Standard, November 12, 1999, Fong Tak-ho, Laser downs missiles,

p. 1 (of article).

Note 139: The New York Times, Feb. 11, 1999, Reuters, Citing Threat of Chinese Missiles, Taipei Calls Defense Inadequate, p. 1 (of article).

Note 140: Naval Institute Proceedings, Sept., 1999, Capt. Gary W. Schnurrpusch, USN, Asian Crisis Spurs Navy TBMD, p. 47.

Note 141: The London Telegraph; The Washington Post; February 12, 1999, David Renne, 200 missiles target Taiwan, p. 1 (of article).

Note 142: World: Asia-Pacific, February 27, 1999, BBC World Service, China heading for missile superiority over Taiwan, p. 1 (of article).

Note 143: White House Report, February 11, 1999, Daily Washington File, Growing deployment in China of missiles capable of hitting Taiwan, p. 1 (of article).

Note 144: China Reform Monitor No. 170, February 18, 1999, China Missile Build-Up Threatens Taiwan, U.S. Pacific Forces, p. 1 (of article).

Note 145: Op. Cit., Anderson, p. 7.

Note 146: Jane=s News Briefs, September 16, 1999, Lead Item, p. 1.

Note 147: James Adams, Bull=s Eye, The Assassination and Life of Supergun Inventor Gerald Bull, Times Books, 1992, Pp. 208-213.

Note 148: Jane=s Armour and Artillery, 1992-1993, Christopher F. Foss, Jane=s Data Division, 1992, Pp. 615-617.

Note 149: Op. Cit., Jane=s World Armies, p. 7.

Note 150: Jane=s News Briefs, September 16, 1999, jdw/janes.com, p. 1.

Note 151: For Your Eyes Only, FYEO Express, Steven V. Cole, October 27, 1999, CHINA: More Weapons Aimed at Taiwan, p. 1.

Note 152: For Your Eyes Only, FYEO Express, James F. Dunnigan, October 5, 1999, p. 1.

Note 153: For Your Eyes Only, FYEO Express, James F. Dunnigan, September 13, 1999,. p. 1.

Note 154: The New York Times, August 13, 1999, Jane Perlez, China and U.S. Are Reported to Trade Threats on Taiwan, Pp. 1-3 (of article). [Same as Section 1 Note 10].

Note 155: Op. Cit., Chang, Pp. 599-604. Note, however, that Chang is unaware that all PRC Kilo class after the first one have modern countermeasures. Also that the French and Russians have provided countermeasures for other PRC submarine classes. In this respect he is too pessimistic about PLAN chances. On the other hand, he does not understand how hard it is for submarines to communicate and coordinate, so he overestimates their effectiveness if used in pairs or groups.

Note 156: Op. Cit., Chang, p. 604.

Note 157: Stratfor.com, Stratfor Special Report, A Chinese Face Saving Option Emerges,

Pp. 1-3.

Prognosis for China, Page 66, Notes (Continued), Rev. 4

Note 158: Kanwa News Service, July 10, 1999, The dangerous >new military revolution=, p. 1.

Note 159: Kanwa News Service, July 20, 1999, Canadian military commentator is racialy vilified by a Chinese official military publication, p. 1.

Note 160: The South China Morning Post, October 18, 1999, Simon Macklin, >PLA has plan to destroy West=s finance systems in dirty war,= Pp. 1-2 (of article), citing the Sunday Telegraph.

Note 161: Kanwa News Service, August 10, 1999, The significant changes in China=s theory of nuclear deterrence, p. 1.

Note 162: Beijing Review, Aug. 10, 1998, Information Office of the State Council Of the People=s Republic of China, China=s National Defense, [Section: The Issue of Nuclear Weapons], Pp. 29-30.

Note 163: Jane=s Defense Weekly, Aug. 11, 1999, Duncan Lennox, A Consistent Policy,

Pp. 20-23.

Note 164: Reuters, March 18, 1999, Los Angeles for Taipei?, p. 1.

Note 165: Stratfor.com, Stratfor Commentary, September 7, 1999, Ulterior Motives for China=s Neutron Bomb Announcement, p. 1.

Note 166: Op. Cit., Anderson, p. 2.

Note 167: Stratfor Special Report, August 20, 1999, China Cautions U.S. Not to Interfere, p. 1.

[This duplicates Section 1 Note 14].

Note 168: Michael D. Swaine, The Role of the Chinese Military in National Security Policymaking, RAND, 1997 Revised Edition, Pp. 38-39.

Note 169: China Military Science, Winter, 1994, Major General Wu Jianguo, Nuclear Shadows on High-Tech Warfare, p. 5, Translation by the Institute for National Strategic Studies.

Note 170: Kanwa News Service, August 26, 1998, The Attack Strategy Of Firm Nuclear Retaliation Proposed By China, p. 1.

Note 171: The Straits Times, October 18, 1999, China >could attack US= in Taiwan conflict, p.1.

[citing a Washington Times story]

Note 172: Straits Times, Sept. 2, 1999, Kang Lim, China says won=t use nuclear weapons on Taiwan, Pp. 1-2 (of article).

Note 173: South China Morning Post, Sept. 3, 1999, AGENCIES, Beijing rejects nuclear option against Taiwan, Pp. 1-3 (of article).

Note 174: Telephone conversation with Christopher G. Mullin, University of Montana at Missoula, Sept. 14, 1999.

Note 175: Periscope, daily defense news, Sept. 24, 1996, U.S. Study Pits China Nukes Against U.S., Taiwan, p. 1.

Note 176: Op. Cit., Anderson, p. 9.

Note 177: John Wilson Lewis and Xue Litai, China Builds the Bomb, Stanford University Press, 1988, p. 40.

Note 178: Ibid., p. 35.

Note 179: Ibid., p. xviii.

Note 180: Ibid., p. 212.

Note 181: Foreign Affairs, Volume 75, No. 2, March/April 1996, Eliot A. Cohen, A Revolution in Warfare, Pp. 54-46.

Note 182: The National Interest, Spring 1997, Fred C. Ikle, The Next Lenin, Pp. 11-12 .

Prognosis for China, Page 67, Notes (Continued), Rev. 4

Note 183: Op. Cit., Jane=s World Armies, p. 3.

Note 184: Foreign Military Studies Office, Timothy L. Thomas, Behind the Great Firewall of China: A Look at RMA/IW Theory from 1996-1998, Pp. 1-24.

Note 185: AFP, May 12, 1999, China may engage in >information war= against Taiwan: miliary chief, p. 1.

Note 186: Command Magazine, Issue 50, Ted S. Raicer, The Coming War(s) With China, p. 35.

Note 187: The Straits Times, October 15, 1999, Why young Chinese men seek elderly Taiwanese wives, Pp. 1-3.

Note 188: Op. Cit., Raicer, p. 39.

Note 189: Op. Cit., Gregor, Pp. 70-71.

Note 190: Op. Cit., Swaine, p. 9.

Note 191: Kanwea News Service, February 4, 1999, China expedites its preparations for >the military struggle= against Taiwan, p. 1 [An interview with Vice Prime Minister Qian Qichen]

Note 192: The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, July/August, 1999, Mike Moore, Call China=s Hand, p. 23.

Note 193: The South China Morning Post, October 14, 1999, Paul Mooney, On-line China watcher offers guide through mainland minefields, Pp. 1-3.

Note 194: Yang Zheng, China=s Nuclear Arsenal, March 16, 1996, p. 1.

Note 195: World Net Daily, Aug. 19, 1999, J.R. Nyquist, China=s Silent Invasion, p. 2.

Note 196: Op. Cit., Wu Jianguo, Pp. 1-3 & Pp. 5-6.

Section 5: Prognosis for China

Note 1: Op. Cit., Gregor, Pp. 70-71. [Same as Section 4 Note 189].

Note 2: Op. Cit., Swaine, p. 9. [Same as Section 4 Note 190].

Note 3: Op. Cit., Gregor, p. 72.

Note 4: Op. Cit., Gregor, Pp. 76-77.

Note 5: Op. Cit., Gregor, p. 80.

Note 6: Op. Cit., Gregor, p. 83.

Note 7: Op. Cit., China=s National Defense, p. 13.

Note 8: Op. Cit., China=s National Defense, p. 14.

Note 9: Op. Cit., China=s National Defense, p. 15.

Note 10: Op. Cit., China=s National Defense, p. 16.

Note 11: South China Morning Post, Sept. 8, 1999, Reunification >will happen at any cost=,

p. 1 (of article).

Note 12: Stratfor.com, Global Intelligence Update, China, September 17, 1999, Chinese Report Frames U.S. as Enemy, Pp. 1-2. [Same as Section 1 Note 4].

Note 13: Op.Cit., Stratfor.com, Global Intelligence Update, China, Sept. 17, 1999, Pp. 4-6.

Note 14: The South China Morning Post, August 26, 1999, Jiang, Yeltsin to Battle >US domination=, Pp. 1-2 (of article).

Note 15: Stratfor.com, Stratfor Commentary, August 25, 1999, Russia and China Reinforce Their Strategic Partnership, Pp. 1-2.

Prognosis for China, Page 68, Notes (Continued), Rev. 4

Note 16: Stratfor.com, Stratfor Commentary, August 25, 1999, Bishkek Declaration Responds to Chinese Concerns, Pp. 1-2.

Note 17: Voice of America, August 26, 1999, Roger Wilkison, China-Russia, Pp. 1-2.

Note 18: Agence France-Presse, August 30, 1999, Russia to sell advanced jet fighters in $15 billion deal, p. 1.

Note 19: Defense News, September, 1999, p26.

Note 20: Associated Press, 1 Sept. 1999, HONG KONG: Russia May Sell Nuke Subs t o China, p. 1.

Note 21: US Army Strategic Studies Institute, March 4, 1997, Stephen J. Blank, The Dynamics of Russian Weapon Sales to China, Pp. 1-3.

Note 22: The Hong Kong Standard, May 25, 1999, Cary Huang, Closer ties for Beijing, Moscow, Pp. 1-2 (of article).

Note 23: Kanwea News, March 31, 1999, China imports the SA15 ground-to-air missile system, p. 1.

Note 24: The Straits Times, October 10, 1999, Reuters, Beijing seals deal to buy 30 Russian jets, p. 1 (of article).

Note 25: Stratfor.com, Global Intelligence Update, Asian Alliance on the Horizon, Pp. 1-4.

Note 26: The Hong Kong Standard, September 20, 1999, Fong Tak-ho, Plenum to be platform for Jiang=s policies, Pp. 1-2 (of article).

Note 27: The South China Morning Post, September 23, 1999, Jasper Becker, Promotion draws

Hu Jintao closer to presidency, Pp. 1-2 (of article).

Note 28: Stratfor.com, Stratfor Special Report, September 23, 1999, Jiang Continues to Centralize, Pp. 1-2.

Note 29: Stratfor.com, Global Intelligence Update, September 24, 1999, Jiang Consolidates

Power, But Can He Hold It?, Pp. 1-7.

Note 30: The New York Times, February 23, 1999, Patrick E. Tyler, Control of Army Is

Crucial Issue for China Rulers, p. 2 (of article).

Note 31: The South China Morning Post, September 28, 1999, Agence France-Presse, Only past glories to celebrate for a people=s army losing its power, Pp. 1-3 (of article).

Note 32: Current History, September, 1999, Bruce Gilley, Jiang Zemin, On the Right Side of History?, p. 252.

Note 33: The South China Morning Post, October 18, 1999, Agence France-Presse, Recently released activist rearrested: rights group, p. 1 (of article).

Note 34: The Hong Kong Standard, October 11, 1999, Agence France-Presse, Activist for trial on subversion, p. 1 (of article).

Note 35: Associated Press, October 11, 1999, Woman Says China Blocking Funds, p. 1.

Note 36: The Straits Times, October 9, 1999, Zhao Ziyang still alive, says daughter,

p. 1 (of article).

Note 37: The Hong Kong Standard, October 7, 1999, Pamela Pun, Zhao made to stay away from Beijing, p.1 (of article).

Note 38: The Hong Kong Standard, September 30, 1999, Agence France Presse, Tibetans >forced to join in,= p. 1 (of article).

Note 39: The Hong Kong Standard, October 15, 1999, Falun Gong followers face job loss, punishment, Pp. 1-2 (of article).

Prognosis for China, Page 69, Notes (Continued), Rev. 4

Note 40: The Hong Kong Standard, October 13, 1999, Pamela Pun & Reuters, Trial of Falun Gong leaders expected to start soon, Pp. 1-2 (of article).

Note 41: The South China Morning Post, October 13, 1999, Associated Press, >Backbone= members of Falun Gong held, Pp. 1-3 (of article).

Note 42: The South China Morning Post, October 16, 1999, Chow Chung-yan, Falun Gong followers threatened with sack, Pp. 1-2 (of article).

Note 43: National Review, September 27, 1999, Jay Nordlinger, Crackdown Time, Pp. 24-27.

Note 44: The South China Morning Post, October 13, 1999, Leader in custody after raid on house church, Pp. 1-2 (of article).

Note 45: The South China Morning Post, October 11, 1999, Daniel Kwan, Pollsters warned to follow rules, Pp. 1-2 (of article).

Note 46: The Hong Kong Standard, October 16, 1999, Chinese oil buys lift crude prices,

p. 1 (of article).

Note 47: The Weekly Standard, May 24, 1999, Arthur Waldron, A Regime in Crisis, p. 27 (of article). [Same as Section 2 Note 23].

Note 48: Op. Cit., Waldron, p. 29. [Same as Section 2 Note 56].

Note 49: The Naval War College Review, Spring 1999, A. James Gregor, Qualified Engagement, U.S. Policy and Security Concerns, p. 83. [Same as Section 2 Note 65].

Note 50: Foreign Military Studies Office, Timothy L. Thomas, Behind the Great Firewall of China: A Look at RMA/IW Theory from 1996-1998, Pp. 1-24. [Same as Sect. 4 Note 184].

Note 51: Op. Cit., Anderson, p. 5.

Note 52: The South China Morning Post, Sept. 3, 1999, Gless Schloss, Alex Lo & Oliver Chou, Airliner forced back by war games, Pp. 1-3 (of article).

Note 53: Op. Cit., Anderson, p. 3.

Note 54: The Straits Times, Sept. 15, 1999, Angry Jiang freezes pay raise for army,

Pp. 1-3 (of article).

Note 55: Stratfor.com, Stratfor Special Report, Aug. 3, 1999, Taiwan=s Independence Bid Drawing Asian Ire, Pp. 1-3.

Note 56: The Hong Kong Standard, Sept. 13, 1999, Mainland media cash in on cross-straits row, Pp. 1-2 (of article).

Note 57: Associated Press, September 27, 1999, Russia, China Plan Naval Exercises, p. 1. [Same as Section 4 Note 64].

Note 58: Op. Cit, Gregor, p. 79. [Same as Section 3 Note 39].

Note 59: The South China Morning Post, Aug. 26, 1999, Oliver Chou, Attack hinges on election, p.1 (of article).

Note 60: The Hong Kong Standard, Sept. 24, 1999, Mainland >plans blockade if Taiwan declares independence, p. 1 (of article).

Note 61: Op. Cit., Freeman, p. 10.

Note 62: Stratfor.com, Stratfor Commentary, July 19, 1999, One China, Two States: Taiwan=s Evaluation of Geopolitics and Clinton, Pp. 1-3.Note 321: The Straits Times, September 16, 1999, Taiwan >will not back down on statehood claim=, p.1.

Note 63: The Straits Times, Sept. 16, 1999, End Cold War approach to China: Kissinger,

p. 2 (of article).

Prognosis for China, Page 70, Notes (Continued), Rev. 4

Note 64: Associated Press, September 23, 1999, Charles Hutzler, Taiwan Must Make Concessions, p.1.

Note 65: The Straits Times, September 23, 1999, Sunny Goh, Reunification: China reveals concessions, Pp. 1-3 (of article).

Note 66: The Straits Times, September 23, 1999, The Chinese Offer, Pp. 1-2.

Note 67: People=s Daily, September 11, 1999, Why We Have Never Promised to Abandon the Use of Force, Pp. 1-3 (of article).

Note 68: The South China Morning Post, November 5, 1999, Missiles >heading to coast,=

p. 1 (of article).

Note 69: Op. Cit., Anderson, Pp. 8-9 (of article).

Note 70: Eliot A. Cohen and John Gooch, Military Misfortunes, The Anatomy of Failure in War, 1991, Vintage Books, p. 173. [Same as Section 4 Note 4].

Note 71: Op. Cit., Cohen FY 99, p. 25. [Same as Section 4 Note 25].

Note 72: The Hong Kong Standard, May 29, 1999, Army commander: mainland could take Taiwan anytime, p. 1 (of article).

Note 73: Op. Cit, Gregor, p. 79. [Same as Section 3 Note 39].

Note 74: The Hong Kong Standard, September 26, 1999, Non-conformity still catches Beijing=s fury despite reforms, p. 1 (of article). [Same as Section 2 Note 64].

Note 75: The South China Morning Post, October 7, 1999, Agence France-Presse, Reclusive Kim sends greetings to Jiang, p. 1 (of article).

Note 76: Op. Cit., Anderson, p. 11.

Note 77: E-mail from Chen Jian, October 7, 1999, p. 1.

Note 78: E-mail from Thomas Chan, November 8, 1999, p. 1.

Note 79: The Straits Times, November 6, 1999, CHIRAC: Risk of US-China tension growing,

p. 1 (of article).

On October 5th the South China Morning Post reported that the two top PLA officers had been replaced by generals a generation younger, both of whom were also given an additional star (indicating they were relatively junior generals in addition to being younger ones.) (22) On the ninth ATaiwan President Lee Teng-hui...@ spoke A...describing the island=s relations with Beijing again as >state-to-state.[email protected] (23)

Note 22: The South China Morning Post, October 5, 1999, Oliver Chou, New generals rejuvenate PLA command, Pp. 1-2 (of article).

Note 23: The Straits Times, October 10, 1999, Teng-hui reasserts >state= ties with China, p. 1

(of article).

On October 14, Jane=s News Briefs reported AAn unusual construction boom is under way in Southeast Asia...all the action is going on among the far-flung reefs and shoals of the Spratley islands in the South China Sea.@ (26)

Note 26: Jane=s News Briefs, October 12, 1999, Build-up in South China Sea, p. 6.

Not all the news is bad news. China obviously did not invade Taiwan immediately after 1 October. The focus of China was in Beijing for the celebrations of the 50th anniversary of the Communist Party takeover of the mainland. During public appearances on October 1, it became apparent APresident Jiang Zemin has largely obtained the party=s blessing to remain the top leader as long as his health permits. Yesterday=s parade confirmed the 73-year-old politician as having a stature equal to that of Mao Zedong and Deng Ziaoping.@ (29, see also 30, 31 & 32) Well, not quite. He is not Chairman of the Party. He did not Aunveil Jiang Zemin Theory@ as originally planned. (33) One commentator said AJiang...lacks his predecessors= power, charisma and credentials.@ (31 again). So while it appears that Deng has consolidated considerable power, it also seems the process is still incomplete. On October 14, after a devastating earthquake on Taiwan, we learned A...the [PRC] leadership had...taken a less hawkish stand on Taiwan.@ (34) The same day it was reported a group of PRC legislators began the first visit to Washington D.C. since the 1989 Tiananmen massacre. (35) It was also reported that Jiang was about to begin a trip to several European and African countries. (36) On October 15 Premier Zhu Rongji announced A...that China would press on with its policy of reform and opening-up.@ (37) If the crisis is acute, it is not immediately going to become critical.

Note 29: The South China Morning Post, October 2, 1999, Willy Wo-lap Lam, Jiang allowed to

stay senior leader for life, p. 1.

Note 30: The Hong Kong Standard, September 30, 1999, Jiang to cement his place in nation=s

history, p. 1.

Note 31: The South China Morning Post, October 1, 1999, Associated Press, President Jiang is

star of China=s celebrations, Pp. 1-3.

Note 32: The South China Morning Post, October 1, 1999, Reuters, Jiang appears on Tiananmen rostrum, Pp. 1-3.

Note 33: Op. Cit., Willy Wo-lap Lam, p. 2.

Note 34: The South China Morning Post, October 14, 1999, Willy Wo-lap Lam, Conciliatory

attitude for post-Lee era, Pp. 1-2.

Note 35: The Hong Kong Standard, October 14, 1999, NPC group in landmark meetings,

Pp. 1-2.

Note 36: The Straits Times, October 14, 1999, Jiang sets off on series of visits next week, p. 1.

Note 37: The Straits Times, October 15, 1999, Mary Kwang, China will press on with reforms:

Zhu, p. 1.



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