Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States
Attachment 3
A. Résumés of Commission Members
The Honorable Donald H. Rumsfeld, Chairman
Mr. Rumsfeld is Chairman of the Board of Directors of Gilead Sciences,
Inc. Previously he served in a variety of government posts, including:
Naval Aviator (1954-57), Member of Congress (1963-69), U.S. Ambassador
to NATO (1972-74), White House Chief of Staff (1974-75), Secretary of
Defense (1975-77) and Presidential Envoy to the Middle East (1983-84).
He also served as Chairman of the Rand Corporation (1981-86; 1995-96)
and as Chairman and CEO of G. D. Searle & Co. (1977-85) and of General
Instrument Corporation (1990-93). He received the Presidential Medal
of Freedom in 1977.
Dr. Barry M. Blechman
Dr. Blechman is the president and founder of DFI International (in
1984) and chairman and co-founder of the Henry L. Stimson Center
beginning in 1989. He served as Assistant Director of the U.S. Arms
Control and Disarmament Agency (1977-80). He was previously affiliated
with the U.S. Army (1964-66), the Center for Naval Analyses (1966-71)
and Brookings Institution (1971-77). He also was affiliated with the
Carnegie Endowment (1980-82) and the Center for Strategic and
International Studies (1982-84). He is the author of Force Without War
and The Politics of National Security, among others. Dr. Blechman has
a Ph.D. in international relations.
General Lee Butler, U.S. Air Force (Ret.)
General Butler served as the Commander-in-Chief of the U.S. Strategic
Command and Strategic Air Command (1992-94) and as the Director of
Strategic Plans and Policy on the Joint Chiefs of Staff (1989-91). In
1987, he was the Director of Operations at USAF Headquarters and
served as the Inspector General of the Strategic Air Command
(1984-86). From 1982 to 1984, he was the Commander of the 96th and
320th Bomb Wings. General Butler was an Olmsted Scholar.
Dr. Richard L. Garwin
Dr. Garwin is a Senior Fellow for Science and Technology with the
Council on Foreign Relations. He has been an IBM Fellow Emeritus at
the Thomas J. Watson Research Center since 1993 and was a Fellow from
1952 to 1993. He has served as a member of the President's Science
Advisory Committee twice, from 1962 to 1965 and from 1969 to 1972, and
he served on the Defense Science Board (1966-69). In 1996, the U.S.
Foreign Intelligence Community awarded him the R.V. Jones Award for
Scientific Intelligence, and the President and the Department of
Energy awarded him the Enrico Fermi Award. Dr. Garwin has a Ph.D. in
physics.
Dr. William R. Graham
Dr. Graham is the Chairman of the Board and President of National
Security Research (1996 to present). He previously was the Director of
the White House Office of Science & Technology Policy (1986-89) and
the Deputy Administrator of NASA (1985-86). He has a Ph.D. in
electrical engineering.
Dr. William Schneider, Jr.
Dr. Schneider is the President of International Planning Services,
Inc. (1986 to present). He previously served as the Under Secretary of
State for Security Assistance (1982-86) and the Chairman of the
President's General Advisory Committee on Arms Control and Disarmament
(1987-93). He has a Ph.D. in economics.
General Larry D. Welch, U.S. Air Force (Ret.)
General Welch is the President and CEO of the Institute for Defense
Analyses (1990 to present). He previously served as the Chief of Staff
of the U.S. Air Force (1986-90) and the Commander in Chief of the U.S.
Strategic Air Command (1985-86).
Dr. Paul D. Wolfowitz
Dr. Wolfowitz is Dean of the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced
International Studies at Johns Hopkins University (1994 to present).
He previously served as the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy
(1989-93), the U.S. Ambassador to Indonesia (1986-89), the Assistant
Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs (1982-86) and
Director of the State Department Policy Planning Staff (1981-82). He
was a member of the Commission on the Roles and Capabilities of the
United States Intelligence Community (1995-95). He has a Ph.D. in
political science.
The Honorable R. James Woolsey
Mr. Woolsey is a partner in the law firm of Shea & Gardner (1995 to
present, 1991-93, 1979-89). He previously served as Director of
Central Intelligence (1993-95), Ambassador and U.S. Representative to
the Negotiation on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (1989-91) and
Under Secretary of the Navy (1977-79). He was a Delegate-at-Large to
the U.S.-Soviet START and Nuclear and Space Arms Talks (1983-85). He
served as a member of the Scowcroft Commission (Presidential
Commission on Strategic Forces, 1983) and the Packard Commission
(Presidential Blue Ribbon Commission on Defense Management, 1985-86).
B. Résumés of Core Staff of the Commission
Dr. Stephen A. Cambone, Staff Director. Senior Fellow, Center for
Strategic and International Studies (1993 to present). Director,
Strategic Defense Policy, Office of the Secretary of Defense
(1990-93); Deputy Director of Strategic Analysis, SRS Technologies
(1986-90); Staff Analyst, Los Alamos National Laboratory (1982-86).
Ph.D. in political science.
Dr. Steven A. Maaranen. Policy Planning Staff, Los Alamos National
Laboratory (1980 to present). Chief, Defense and Space Division, U.S.
Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (1987-88); Assistant Professor,
Claremont McKenna College (1976-80). Ph.D. in political science.
Eric Desautels. Member of Technical Staff, TASC, Inc. (1994-98).
Masters in international security.
David H. Dunham. Member of Technical Staff, TASC, Inc. (1994-98);
Assistant Director of the Eisenhower World Affairs Institute (1994);
Special Assistant, Safe and Secure Dismantlement Delegation; Deputy
Executive Director, General Advisory Committee, U.S. Arms Control and
Disarmament Agency (1991-94).
Jason W. Roback. Analyst with the National Institute for Public Policy
and National Security Research, Inc. (1997 to present). M.S. in
defense and strategic studies.
Bernard C. Victory. Analyst at the National Institute for Public
Policy (1988 to present). Congressional Research Service (1987-88).
M.A. in international affairs.
Delonnie Henry. Administrative Assistant, National Defense University
(1993-98). M.Ed.
DCI Liaison
Richard Haver. Chief of Staff of the National Intelligence Council.
Formerly: National Intelligence Officer for Special Activities,
Executive Director for Intelligence Community Affairs, Assistant to
the Secretary of Defense for Intelligence Policy and Deputy Director
for Naval Intelligence.
C. Commission Meetings and Agendas
Date Subject or Activity Visitor
Jan. 14 Organization of Commission
Jan. 15 U.S. Technical Collection
Capabilities
Simulation, Imagery
Intelligence (IMINT), Signals
Intelligence (SIGINT)
Foreign Instrumentation
Signals
Measures and Signature
Intelligence (MASINT)
Jan. 29 Russia
Changing Political and
Economic Circumstances
Military Changes
Nuclear Doctrine
Strategic Force Projections
Warning, Inadvertent Launch,
Anti-Ballistic Missile Status
C3I, Unauthorized and
Accidental Launch
Jan. 30 China
Political Overview Taiwan
Economic Overview
Military Overview
China's Space Program
Nuclear Doctrine
Force Structure and
Projections
Chinese C3I
Feb. 4 Deception and Denial
Analytic Depth: China
Feb. 5 External Proliferation
Concerns
Technology Transfer and End
Use
China
Hard Target
Missile Program and Russian
Assistance
Infrastructure and Government
Oversight
Feb. 9 Nuclear Programs
Nonproliferation Center and
Feb. 19 Methodological Challenges of
Proliferation
Russia
The Spread of Underground
Facilities
Hard Target
Military, Missile and
Technological Infrastructure
External Proliferation
Concerns
The Russian-Iranian Connection
Mar. 4 Iran
Collection Challenges
Ballistic Missile Program
Engine Testing Missile
Infrastructure
Alternate Launch Modes
Nuclear Program
Biological Weapons
Chemical Weapons
Buyer, Seller, Broker
Mar. 5 North Korea
Collection Challenges
Ballistic Missile Program
Buyer, Seller, Broker
Forces and Doctrine
Chemical Weapons
Biological Weapons
Nuclear Program
Mar. 19 The Honorable George Tenet Director of Central
Intelligence
Ambassador Rolf Ekéus Ambassador of Sweden to the
U.S.
Office of Net Assessment,
The Honorable Andrew Marshall Office of the Secretary of
Defense
David Osias Defense Intelligence Officer
David Ivry Director-General, Israeli
Ministry of Defense (Ret.)
Mar. 24 Saudi Arabia
Algeria
Egypt
Libya
Syria
Mar. 25 Meeting of Commissioners at
the National Security Agency
Mar. 30 Iraq
Collection Overview
IAEA/UNSCOM Inspection Program
Missile Program
Chemical Weapons
Biological Weapons
Nuclear Program
Mar. 31 India and Pakistan
Hard Target
Weapons of Mass Destruction:
Motivations, Decisionmakers
and Doctrine
Missile Systems: Capabilities
and Production
India's Naval Development
India's Space Program
Foreign Proliferation
Assistance
Missile Forces in 2015
Chemical & Biological Weapons
Mar. 31
Nuclear Programs
(cont.)
Broker and Seller: Issues of
Safety and Security
Collection Overview
Apr. 7 Intelligence Process
The Honorable Edward C. "Pete" President and CEO, Aerospace
Aldridge, Jr. Corporation
Project West Wing
Iranian and North Korean
Ballistic Missile Program
Ballistic Missile Technical
Hurdles and Work-a-Rounds
Apr. 8 Deception and Denial
Yamantau and Russian
Underground Activity
Apr. 16 Admiral William Studeman, U.S. Former Deputy Director of
Navy (Ret.) Central Intelligence
Hurdles of Long-range
Ballistic Missiles and
Work-a-Rounds: 1. Liquid
Rocket Propulsion 2. Solid
Rocket Propulsion 3.
Aerodynamics, Reentry Vehicle
4. Design and Missile
Materials
Russian Command and Control
Modernization
Apr. 20 Lt. Gen. Lester Lyles, U.S. Director, Ballistic Missile
Air Force Defense Organization
Lt. Gen. Patrick Hughes, U.S. Director, Defense
Army Intelligence Agency
Apr. 20
Dr. Fred Iklé Former Under Secretary of
(cont.) Defense (Policy)
Analysis of Pakistan's
Ghauri/No Dong Launch
Apr. 21 Emerging Long-Range Threat to Boeing Corporation
the U.S.
Former U.S. Ambassador to
Ambassador Frank Wisner India and Special Ambassador
to Russia
Counterintelligence Brief
Apr. 27 Industrial Espionage Legal
Snooping
1993 No Dong Flight
Foreign Missile Threats
Scope of Ballistic Missile
Proliferation Activities
Non-Proliferation
Methodologies
Dr. Sidney Drell Deputy Director, Stanford
Linear Accelerator Center
May 7 Foreign Missile Assessment Lockheed Martin Corporation
Payload Fabrication and
Delivery
Commercial Space-Launch
Vehicles, Peacekeeper Orbital Sciences Corporation
Conversion
Contemporaneous History of
Iran's Missile Programs
Former Director, Office of
May 8 Gordon Oehler the Director of Central
Intelligence
Nonproliferation Center
The Honorable William Reinsch Undersecretary of Commerce
for Export Administration
May 18 Naval Intelligence Briefing
Contemporaneous History of
North Korea's Missile Program
Assessment of a Hypothetical
Taepo Dong III
Dr. William J. Perry Former Secretary of Defense
Lt. General William Odom, U.S. Former Director of the
Army (Ret.) National Security Agency
May 19 Drafting of Final Report
Former Secretary of Defense
May 27 Dr. James Schlesinger and Director of Central
Intelligence
Drafting of Final Report
Jun. 3 Drafting of Final Report
Jun. 4 Dr. Harold Brown Former Secretary of Defense
Drafting of Final Report
Jun. 11 Drafting of Final Report
Jun. 16 The Honorable Caspar Former Secretary of Defense
Weinberger
Drafting of Final Report
Jun. 17 Office Call with the Honorable Secretary of Defense The
William S. Cohen Pentagon
Drafting of Final Report
Jun. 23 Information Warfare
Dr. John Deutch Former Director of Central
Intelligence
Brief on Israel
Drafting of Final Report
Jun. 24 General Colin Powell, U.S. Former Chairman, Joint
Army (Ret.) Chiefs of Staff
Lt. Gen. Brent Scowcroft, U.S. Former National Security
Air Force (Ret.) Advisor to the President
Cruise Missiles
Drafting of Final Report
Jun. 29 Office Call with General Henry Chairman, Joint Chiefs of
H. Shelton, U.S. Army Staff The Pentagon
Drafting of Final Report
Jun. 30 Drafting of Final Report
Assistant to the President
Jul. 7 Office Call with the Honorable for National Security The
Samuel R. "Sandy" Berger
White House
Foreign Students in the United
States
Jul. 8 Information Warfare
Space Reconnaissance
Y2K Problem in Russia
Collection Capabilities
Senior Leadership of the
Jul. 15 Deliver Report to Congress U.S. Senate and U.S. House
of Representatives The
Capitol
D. Site Visits
March 6: National Air Intelligence Center Wright Patterson Air Force
BaseDayton, Ohio
March 10: Sandia National Laboratories Kirtland Air Force Base
Albuquerque, New Mexico
March 16: Aerospace Corporation Los Angeles, California
March 25: National Security Agency Fort Meade, Maryland
April 3: Center for International Security Affairs Los Alamos National
Laboratory Los Alamos, New Mexico
April 22: National Reconnaissance Office Sterling, Virginia
May 6: Defense Intelligence Agency Briefing Andrews Air Force Base
Suitland, Maryland
May 15: Missile and Space Intelligence Center Redstone Arsenal
Huntsville, Alabama
June 5: U.S. Space Command Peterson Air Force Base Colorado Springs,
Colorado
June 8: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Livermore, California
E. Interviews
Dr. Edward C. "Pete" Aldridge, Jr., former Secretary of the Air Force
and Director of the National Reconnaissance Office
The Honorable Samuel R. "Sandy" Berger, Assistant to the President for
National Security Affairs
The Honorable Dr. Harold Brown, former Secretary of Defense
The Honorable William S. Cohen, Secretary of Defense
The Honorable Dr. John Deutch, former Director of Central Intelligence
and Deputy Secretary of Defense
Dr. Sidney Drell, Deputy Director, Stanford Linear Accelerator Center
Ambassador Rolf Ekéus, Ambassador of Sweden to the United States
Lieutenant General Patrick Hughes, U.S. Army, Director, Defense
Intelligence Agency
David Ivry, former Director-General of the Ministry of Defense of
Israel
Dr. Frederick Iklé, former Undersecretary of Defense
David A. Kier, Deputy Director for the National Reconnaissance Office
Lieutenant General Lester Lyles, U.S. Air Force, Director, Ballistic
Missile Defense Organization
The Honorable Andrew Marshall, Director of Net Assessment, Office of
the Secretary of Defense
Barbara McNamara, Deputy Director, National Security Agency
Lieutenant General William Odom, U.S. Army (Ret.), former Director of
the National Security Agency
Gordon Oehler, former Director, Nonproliferation Center, Office of the
Director of Central Intelligence
David Osias, Defense Intelligence Officer for Acquisition Support,
Counter-proliferation and Arms Conrol
The Honorable Dr. William J. Perry, former Secretary of Defense
General Colin A. Powell, U.S. Army (Ret.), former Chairman of the
Joint Chiefs of Staff and National Security Advisor to the President
The Honorable William A. Reinsch, Undersecretary of Commerce for
Export Administration
The Honorable Dr. James Schlesinger, former Secretary of Defense,
Director of Central Intelligence and Secretary of Energy
Lieutenant General Brent Scowcroft, U.S. Air Force (Ret.), former
National Security Advisor to the President
General Henry H. Shelton, U.S. Army, Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff
Admiral William Studeman, U.S. Navy (Ret.), former Deputy Director of
Central Intelligence and Director, National Security Agency
The Honorable George J. Tenet, Director of Central Intelligence
The Honorable Caspar Weinberger, former Secretary of Defense
Ambassador Frank Wisner, former U.S. Ambassador to India
F. Acknowledgments
The Commissioners wish to express their appreciation to the men and
women of the U.S. Intelligence Community. Over 300 of them took time
to meet with the Commissioners on the subject of the ballistic missile
threat to the United States.
In particular, the Commissioners express their thanks to the Honorable
George Tenet, Director, Central Intelligence, and to the directors of
the Defense Intelligence Agency, National Security Agency, National
Reconnaissance Office, National Imagery and Mapping Agency and the
Office of Naval Intelligence for making the time of their analysts
available to the Commission and for providing a level of access to
information infrequently granted.
Special thanks are extended to Rich Haver, the DCI's liaison to the
Commission. His knowledge of the issues, familiarity with the ways of
the Intelligence Community and his unfailing good humor made the task
of the Commission far easier than it might otherwise have been. The
Commissioners would like to thank those analysts and managers of the
Bureau of Intelligence and Research (Department of State), Defense
Technology Security Administration (Department of Defense), CIA, DIA,
NSA, NRO and NIMA who served as the points of contact for their
respective agencies. Their efforts to schedule briefings and to
provide information is greatly appreciated.
The Commissioners would also like to thank the support staff provided
by the Central Intelligence Agency who served in the Commission office
and those in the Multimedia Production Group, Cartography Department
and Printing and Photography Group who assisted in the design and
publication of the final version of the Report.