The views, opinions, and findings contained in this report are those of the authors and should not be construed as an official Department of Defense position, policy, or decision, unless so designated by other official documentation.

UPDATE: 03/05/99


CBO Proposes Options For Russia's Early Warning System. Aerospace Daily. Drake, Jessica, Mar 01, 1999, p 304

US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is putting together financial aid options for the Russian Federation's ballistic missile early warning system. Congressional and military advisors in the US are proposing six potential packages to be offered, possibly in the next Russian-American meeting later this month.

Descriptors, Keywords: Russia early warning CBO

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 01


Don't Stop START II. Arms Control Today. Keeny, Spurgeon M., Nov 01, 1998, p 2

START II is in serious jeopardy, as a result of the US government's bombardment of Iraq in December and our "provocative" statements concerning NMD deployment this past January. The timing of our announcement to deploy NMD and our statement about willingness to possibly abrogate the ABM Treaty could not have come at a worse time. The author urges the President to give START II the overriding priority it deserves in US national security and avoid policy actions that will further delay Russian ratification of START II.

Descriptors, Keywords: START II ABM Treaty NATO Duma Russia Iraq NMD deployment Cohen

testimony ICBM rogue nation foreign policy UNSCOM inspection editorial

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 02


National Missile Defense, The ABM Treaty, And The Future Of START II. Arms Control Today. Keeny, Spurgeon M., Nov 01, 1998, pp 3-10

This is the transcript of a press conference the Arms Control Association held on January 27, 1999, to assess the impact of SecDef Cohen's announcement concerning the funding of preparations for the deployment of a national missile defense system. Panelists included Spurgeon Keeny, John Pike, John Rhinelander, and Susan Eisenhower.

Descriptors, Keywords: Keeny Rhinelander Pike Eisenhower NMD ABM Treaty START II foreign policy arms control Cohen Rumsfeld Russia rogue state deployment Alaska MIRV

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 03


Averting A Train Wreck With North Korea. Arms Control Today. Sigal, Leon V., Nov 01, 1998, pp 11-15

The author maintains that the best way to avert a conflict between the US and North Korea and assure the survival of the Agreed Framework is for the US to move beyond the agreement and seek to negotiate an end to North Korea's longer-range ballistic missile activities in return for much greater political and economic engagement with Pyongyang. The US has 4 interests in North Korea: protection of Seoul; preventing Pyongyang from acquiring nuclear arms; preventing the development, testing, deployment, and sale of any more medium or longer range ballistic missiles; and reconciliation and peaceful reunification of the two Koreas.

Descriptors, Keywords: US DPRK North Korea ballistic missile test normalization foreign policy treaty economic embargo

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 04


Duma Drafts Resolution Then Postpones Vote On START II. Arms Control Today. Cerniello, Craig, Nov 01, 1998, pp 23,28

The Russians, angry at the joint US-UK strike in Iraqi territory in December, delayed their planned vote on START II until the spring session. Currently no date has been set for the vote on the treaty. Russia has expressed concerns about specific treaty provisions, NATO enlargement and US adherence to the ABM treaty. Russia has stated that it will not allow START II to enter into force until the US Senate approves the September 1997 package of agreements signed in New York. The agreements include a demarcation about permitted TMD systems and restricted ABM systems.

Descriptors, Keywords: US Russia Duma START II TMD ABM NATO Iraq MOU Poland Hungary Czech early warning system

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 05


Germany Raises No-First-Use Issue At NATO Meeting. Arms Control Today. Boese, Wade, Nov 01, 1998, p 24

Representatives from the new German coalition government, which is committed to a nuclear free world, proposed that NATO adopt the principle of "no first use." The Germans do not want to break with NATO, yet the government has expressed concerns about the nuclear powers' failure to take steps toward disarmament and by this failure providing a disincentive for nonnuclear weapon states to forego nuclear weapons.

Descriptors, Keywords: Germany NATO Canada consensus strategic policy nuclear weapons Britain France Cohen Christopher PDD-60 China NPT

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 06


Missile Defense Gains Political Favor Amid Rifts. Aviation Week & Space Technology. Mann, Paul, Mar 01, 1999, pp 51-53

Limited NMD is gaining political support in response to North Korean missile proliferation, seen by some as a harbinger of a long-term missile race in Asia. "There's been a gradual shift of the political consensus that gives NMD more life, more credibility," says Bruce G. Blair, senior fellow and nuclear weapons expert at the Brooking Institution. "Long-time advocates are beginning to gain confidence that a bipartisan consensus toward deployment is in the making. Partisan rancor is subsiding in favor of more objective and technical judgments. There's also a new found sense of budgetary optimism within the Defense Dept. That means investment in NMD would not cut as deeply into other priorities."

Descriptors, Keywords: NMD Deployment Russia WMD ABM Treaty Weldon Welch

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 07


NMD Requires Tough Choices. Aviation Week & Space Technology. Mann, Paul, Mar 01, 1999, p 53

Deploying a NMD without touching off offensive missile buildups or increased dependence on nuclear forces will involve tough strategic trade-offs, security experts say. Amending the ABM Treaty could boomerang in a resurgence of multiple warhead missiles (MIRVs), a defense nightmare from Cold War days that would be partially defused under a pending U.S.-Russian treaty banning land based MIRVs. A U.S. NMD deployment might further impel Russia to overreliance on its nuclear arsenal, entrenching a development already far advance by the precipitous decline of Moscow's conventional forces.

Descriptors, Keywords: NMD Deployment Russia ABM Treaty MIRV Proliferation

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 08


PAC-3 Deployment Date Slips To 2001. Defense Daily. Atkinson, David, Mar 01, 1999, pp 5-6

The Patriot PAC-3 missile program has grown significantly in cost over the past year, and flight test delays have pushed the date for the First Unit Equipped (FUE) status into 2001, according to LtGen Lyles, BMDO Director.

Descriptors, Keywords: Lyles PAC-3 deployment date slip FUE

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 09


Richardson Directs Labs To Set Up Nonproliferation Center. Defense Daily. Wolfe, Frank, Mar 03, 1999, pp 5-6

Department of Energy Secretary Bill Richardson has directed the agency's national laboratories, including Los Alamos and Oak Ridge, to form a Nuclear Proliferation Data Exploitation Center to help the intelligence community in finding threats posed by terrorists and rogue states.

Descriptors, Keywords: national labs Richardson Nonproliferation Los Alamos Oak Ridge threat intelligence

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 10


PAC-3's HERA Target Causes Launch Cancellation. Defense Daily. Keeter, Hunter, Mar 01, 1999, pp 4-5

The first seeker characterization flight for the Army's PAC-3 was postponed on Friday due to continued problems with the HERA target missile.

Descriptors, Keywords: PAC-3 HERA target launch cancellation

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 11


Aegis Cruisers Track 60 Scud-Like Targets In Exercise. Defense Daily. Wolfe, Frank, Mar 01, 1999, pp 3-4

In a Joint Task Force Exercise Aegis cruisers have tracked about 60 computer simulated targets representing Scud missiles with the help of the Area Air Defense Commander (AADC), designed by the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.

Descriptors, Keywords: Aegis cruisers track computer simulated targets

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 12


Cohen Presses PLA for Access, Transparency. Defense News. Opall-Rome, Barbara, Mar 08, 1999, pp 4, 35

Secretary of Defense William Cohen expects the People's Liberation Army to allow access to various PLA military facilities previously off limits during visits by US officials. He also wants to engage in computerized joint US China exercises in humanitarian operations. Retired Gen. John Shalikashvili, among others, has been critical of the PLAs refusal to discuss substantive military issues.

Descriptors, Keywords: United States China PLA Cohen

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 13


Seoul Seeks Medium Range Missile Force. Defense News. Opall-Rome, Barbara, Mar 08, 1999, pp 1, 34

South Korean government and military officials want Washington's support for the development and deployment of mid-range missiles capable of striking North Korea. South Korea prefers development of its own missiles to the US preferred theater missile defense (TMD) program.

Descriptors, Keywords: TMD North Korea South Korea

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 14


Pacific Chief: China Threat Exaggerated; United States Must Deal With PLA From Position of Strength. Defense News. Opall-Rome, Barbara, Mar 08, 1999, pp 4,3 5

Adm Joseph Prueher, outgoing commander of US forces in the Pacific, states in an interview that the threat to the US from China's Missile program is exaggerated by many in Washington. Adm Prueher thinks that the US should focus on the Chinese leadership's intentions, rather than Chinese weapons capabilities. He said that the US must continue to cooperatively engage China and encourage continued dialog between China and Taiwan.

Descriptors, Keywords: United States Prueher China Taiwan

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 15


Pentagon to Meet New Cyber Threats. Defense News. Seffers, George I., Mar 08, 1999, p 6

The Commerce Department's Critical Information Assurance Office (CIAO) will soon release a plan to protect US infrastructure from cyber attacks. CIAO will be "investing in the personnel and the hardware for a series of next generation, intrusion detection monitoring systems." The Commerce Department hopes to stimulate civilian interest and research into cyber protection, as well as protect the Defense Department, the National Security Agency, and the rest of the federal government. The Pentagon fully backs the new national plan.

Descriptors, Keywords: Commerce Department CIAO Information Warfare Cyber Warfare Infrastructure

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 16


US Navy to Study Short Term Program for Missile Defense. Defense News. Holzer, Robert, Mar 08, 1999, p 6

The Navy has formed a Red Team to determine if sea based theater missile defense (TMD) can be developed four years faster than previously believed. The approach, called Vanguard, would bypass the time consuming task of integrating the SM-3 antiair missile with Aegis radar.

Descriptors, Keywords: NTW TMD SM-3 Aegis Vanguard

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 17


ICBM Threat To US By Next Year, General Predicts. Defense Week. Donnelly, John, Mar 01, 1999, pp 1, 16

At a conference last week, LtGen Lyles, director of BMDO, in the most specific official reference yet to how soon such a capability could materialize, said there is "little doubt" a new ballistic missile threat to the US will emerge by 2000.

Descriptors, Keywords: ICBM threat Lyles missile defense capability

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 18


Hamre To Hill: 'We're In A Cyberwar'. Defense Week. Donnelly, John and Crawley, Vince, Mar 01, 1999, pp 1, 15

Military computer systems are under siege by a "coordinated, organized" attack from an unknown source, the focus of an "intense" federal criminal investigation, US officials told House lawmakers in a classified briefing last week.

Descriptors, Keywords: Hamre House briefing cyberwar Weldon

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 19


Lyles Confirms Report On Navy NMD Costs. Defense Week. Donnelly, John, Mar 01, 1999, p 3

A sea-based NMD system could cost as much as $19b, the chief of the Pentagon's missile-defense agency told a congressional hearing last week.

Descriptors, Keywords: Lyles NMD Navy sea-based testimony Congress

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 20


Pentagon Plan To Pick Single Upper Tier Leader Greeted With Skepticism. Inside Missile Defense. Duffy, Thomas, Feb 24, 1999, p 9

The Pentagon's plan to choose either the Navy Theater Wide or the Army's THAAD system as the upper-tier missile defense program "leader" is coming under scrutiny by former service officials and industry sources who say the plan makes little sense based on the operational needs of both services.

Descriptors, Keywords: DoD Navy Theater Wide Army THAAD scrutiny lead role upper tier missile defense

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 21


Weldon To Form Advisory Group For Review Of Missile Defense Program. Inside Missile Defense. Duffy, Thomas, Feb 24, 1999, p 17

Rep Curt Weldon (R-PA), chairman of the HAS R&D subcommittee, has asked Alexander Flax, former president of IDA, to form an advisory group to review the work of contractors developing and building the Defense Department's missile defense systems.

Descriptors, Keywords: Weldon advisory group review missile defense programs Flax

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 22


DoD Officials Beginning To Refine Upper-Tier Missile Defense Strategies. Inside Missile Defense. Skibitski, Peter J., Feb 24, 1999, pp 5-6

Top Pentagon missile defense officials are discussing the restructuring of the Navy's Theater Wide and the Army's THAAD systems in the wake of the recent announcement to select a "lead" system in November 2000.

Descriptors, Keywords: Navy Theater Wide Army THAAD lead system

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 23


Israel Prepares To Offer Proposals For Next Phase Of UAV-BPI Program. Inside Missile Defense. Sirak, Michael C., Feb 24, 1999, pp 7-8

In the coming weeks, Israeli officials will begin presenting their plan for proceeding with the next phase of a program for a forward-tier defense against theater ballistic missiles. Israel is pursuing the effort with US funding support.

Descriptors, Keywords: Israel UAV-BPI proposal funding IBIS US

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 24


Administration Team In Moscow This Week To Initiate ABM Treaty Talks. Inside Missile Defense. Sirak, Michael C., Feb 24, 1999, p 14

A team of senior Clinton administration officials in Moscow this week has initiated discussions with the Russians on modifying the 1972 ABM Treaty.

Descriptors, Keywords: Russia US ABM Treaty Clinton Strategic Stability Group

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 25


Lawmaker Calls For Renewed 'Brilliant Pebbles' Program. Inside Missile Defense. Dupont, Daniel G., Feb 24, 1999, p 25

Rep Bob Schaffer (R-CO) is urging DoD to redirect funds recently set aside for a groundbased NMD system to an accelerated Navy Theater Wide program and space-based interceptors like the defunct Brilliant Pebbles effort.

Descriptors, Keywords: Schaffer DoD funds NMD Navy Theater Wide Brilliant Pebbles spacebased interceptor

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 26


Louisiana Senator Works To Bridge Partisan Gap On NMD Legislation. Inside Missile Defense. Rosenfeld, Stephanie G., Feb 24, 1999, pp 17-18

According to Sen Mary Landrieu (D-LA) who abstained from the committee votes on both Sen Cochran's (R-MS) and Sen Levin's (D-MI) versions of a NMD bill to make a statement that compromise legislation is possible, Democrats and Republicans are only inches apart on NMD.

Descriptors, Keywords: Landrieu Cochran Levin compromise legislation NMD

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 27


PAC-3 Seeker Test On Hold Again As Army Investigates Target Mishap. Inside the Pentagon. Dupont, Daniel G., Mar 04, 1999, p 30

Another Hera target mishap forced the Army to cancel another attempted PAC-3 test last week. With the failed attempt still under investigation, the service has yet to determine when the test will be rescheduled.

Descriptors, Keywords: PAC-3 Hera target seeker test

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 28


Helms Calls On Clinton For Evidence That ABM Treaty Is Legally In Force. Inside the Pentagon. Costa, Keith J., Mar 04, 1999, pp 1, 28-29

Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jesse Helms (R-NC) has in effect put the President on notice that his committee will begin holding hearings on the status of the ABM Treaty in coming weeks. The hearings will proceed on the legal assumption that the treaty is no longer in force, unless the President can present convincing evidence to the contrary. A copy of Helms' letter to the President is included with the story.

Descriptors, Keywords: ABM Treaty Helms Russia

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 29


Lawmakers Call For DoD IG Review Of Y2K Efforts For Nuclear Arsenal. Inside the Pentagon. Costa, Keith J., Mar 04, 1999, p 3-5

Sen Tom Harkins (D-IA) and Rep Edward Markey (D-MA) are calling on the DoD inspector general to review Y2K computer compliance efforts related to the US nuclear arsenal. In addition, they are urging increased effort in helping Russia tackle the Y2K bug to guard against the potential for an accidental missile launch. Copy of letter is reprinted with article.

Descriptors, Keywords: Y2K nuclear arsenal Harkins Markey

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 30


Weldon: Challenges To Hit-To-Kill Technology Readiness Unfounded. Inside the Pentagon. Costa, Keith J., Mar 04, 1999, p 31

Rep Curt Weldon (R-PA), chairman of the HASC Military R&D subcommittee, announced in a hearing on BMD programs last week that the challenges facing US BMD development efforts have more to do with integrating various systems than with hit-to-kill technology. BMDO Dir LtGen Lester Lyles, who testified before the subcommittee Feb 25, concurred with the assessment.

Descriptors, Keywords: Weldon hit-to-kill Lyles NMD

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 31


Next THAAD Test Now Set For March 30, But Could Slip Again. Inside the Pentagon. Dupont, Daniel G., Mar 04, 1999, p 30

The next test flight of the beleaguered THAAD system has been pushed back again to late March and may slip into April. This will be the sixth intercept attempt for THAAD, which did not achieve any successful intercepts during the first five tries.

Descriptors, Keywords: THAAD test schedule delay

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 32


Sen Smith Against New Upper-Tier Plans, Says US Needs NTW And THAAD. Inside the Pentagon. Duffy, Thomas, Mar 04, 1999, pp 30-31

Sen Bob Smith (R-NH), chairman of the SASC strategic forces subcommittee, said he would like to see DoD continue developing both Navy and Army upper-tier TMD systems instead of selecting one to be the "leader" program as now planned.

Descriptors, Keywords: NTW THAAD upper tier TMD

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 33


US Sea-Based Defense Urged. Jane's Defence Weekly. Seigle, Greg, Mar 03, 1999, p 10

US NMD capabilities would be enhanced by the integration of sea-based interceptors with land-based systems, according to a previously classified Pentagon report. Although Aegis-class interceptors designed to protect limited areas would require faster speeds, reconfigured warheads and improved sensors to fulfill an NMD mission, they could increase the chances of downing an ICBM, the report concludes. The updated, unclassified version of the May 1998 report by the BMDO has not yet been made available to Congress. Senior military officials confirmed its findings during a 24 Feb. hearing before a Senate Armed Services Committee panel on strategic forces. "The mobility and flexibility of our ships at sea would allow for earlier detection and kill opportunities," said RADM Rodney Rempt, assistant secretary of the US Navy for theater combat systems.

Descriptors, Keywords: Sea Based NMD LtGen Lyles RADM Rodney Rempt Senate SASC

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 34


AFRL Addresses Space Debris. Military Space. Carey, Bill, Mar 01, 1999, pp 3, 9

"The sky is not falling" or posing an imminent danger from the presence of man-made space debris, but the risk of collisions - however small - is real, and must be further studied, advises David B. Spencer, of the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). In the four decades since the beginning of the space age, the number of orbiting man-made objects catalogued by the Air Force's Space Surveillance Network (SSN) has shown linear growth, and now stands at around 8,500, including 500 active satellites. But while the proliferation of current and planned commercial satellite launches might be expected to add to the level of space debris, Spencer says mitigation practices such as venting propellant tanks and depleting batteries to prevent explosions are showing results.

Descriptors, Keywords: AFRL USAF Space Surveillance Network Space Debris SSN

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 35


Joint US/Russian Hall Thruster Begins Testing. Military Space, Mar 01, 1999, p 8

The first breadboard level test of a 5kW T-160 Hall Effect Thruster Systems (HETS) was started Feb. 2 in a vacuum chamber at NASA's Lewis Research Center (LeRC), Cleveland, OH, according to Donald J. Campbell, director of NASA LeRC. The autonomous logic control system initiated thruster activation on the first attempt, and all components and subsystems have been performing at or above functional specifications. The $10m project began in March 1997 and is sponsored by NASA's Office of Aero-Space Technology and the BMDO. Space Power Inc. is the prime contractor.

Descriptors, Keywords: HETS T-160 Hall Effect Thruster System STEX Space Technology Experiment Russia

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 36


Warner Challenges Clinton Defense Plan: Senate Creates New Panel To Handle "Emerging Security Threats". National Defense. Kennedy, Harold, Mar 01, 1999, pp 17-18

John Warner (R-VA) is the new head of the Senate Armed Services Committee. He announced a reorganization of the committee to include a new subcommittee (Emerging Threats and Capabilities Subcommittee) to address the emerging security concerns. These include ways of dealing with national security threats such as proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, terrorism, and information warfare. Warner criticized the President for the budget submitted, arguing that Defense is underfunded given current threats.

Descriptors, Keywords: Warner SASC Thurmond threat WMD nonproliferation terrorism information warfare

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 37


Budget "Gimmicks" Anger Lawmakers: Military Pay, Missile Defense Are Big Winners In Pentagon 2000 Budget. National Defense. Erwin, Sandra I., Mar 01, 1999, pp 14-15

The Pentagon's six year spending plan ends the fifteen year drawdown. The budget was increased by $12.6b. Most of the money comes from lower inflation and fuel cost estimates and reprogramming efforts. Base closures were a hot topic, since Cohen has asked Congress for an additional two rounds of base closings in 2001 and 2005. The NMD program received $6.6b in the six year plan, with the goal of deployment by 2005. BMDO received almost $2b for TMD and $836m for NMD programs.

Descriptors, Keywords: Clinton administration budget Congress NMD TMD funding base closing

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 38


Administration Accelerates Missile Defense Deployment. National Defense, Mar 01, 1999, p 4

The Administration has proposed allocating $6.6B for the next five years to develop and deploy an NMD system. Critics say the system may violate the 1972 ABM Treaty. Additionally, the administration plans to accelerate sea-based Navy Theater Wide programs for deployment in 2007. THAAD is funded to continue flight testing. However it will be reviewed after further tests.

Descriptors, Keywords: Clinton budget missile defense deployment NMD ABM treaty Taepo-Dong Russia Navy Theater Wide THAAD funding

UPDATE: Mar 05, 1999, No. 39