5. DOE Nonproliferation Programs

5.1 Introduction

The objectives of the DoD counterproliferation mission are strongly supported by several nuclear proliferation prevention activities of the DOE. DOE plays a critical role in addressing ACE priorities in detecting and tracking WMD-related shipments (ACE priority 10); defending against and responding to paramilitary, covert delivery, and terrorist WMD threats through its Nuclear Emergency Search Team (ACE priority 13); by supporting U.S. Government export control activities (ACE priority 14); and by supporting inspection and monitoring activities of verifiable arms control agreements and regimes (ACE priority 15). DOE is requesting $411.45 million in FY 1997, compared to $390.78 million in FY 1996, for nonproliferation and proliferation prevention programs. DOE's budget breakdown for FY 1997 is provided in Appendix D.

To reduce the international nuclear proliferation threat, DOE is focusing its resources and expertise on the following near term priorities:

DOE undertakes various activities, as a member of the Intelligence Community, related to nuclear proliferation intelligence data analysis and treaty monitoring. DOE nonproliferation and proliferation prevention activities are discussed in this section. Joint DOE/U.S. Intelligence activities are discussed in the Intelligence Annex to this report.

5.2 Status and Accomplishments of DOE Proliferation Prevention Programs

5.2.1 Detecting and Characterizing Worldwide Production of Nuclear Materials and Weapons. Under the production detection program, DOE is developing a set of both remote and on-site complementary tools to detect and characterize foreign nuclear materials production activities. Acquisition of special nuclear materials is the most important step for a potential nuclear weapons proliferator to accomplish. The ability to detect production is therefore a very critical proliferation prevention capability, and the ability to detect such production remotely is a powerful deterrent. The CALIOPE (Chemical Analysis by Laser Interrogation Of Proliferation Effluents) program is a major remote sensing effort focused on providing such a capability. The CALIOPE program is composed of a multi-laboratory team with the goal of perfecting laser based remote sensing techniques for trace chemical effluent detection. The CALIOPE system will eventually consist of an airborne sensor system for the detection of chemical species in environments indicative of nuclear materials production. Initial field experiments using prototype equipment met with significant success. Other production detection efforts are focused on the development of a small satellite demonstration system employing multispectral and thermal imaging techniques. Such techniques are useful to detect and monitor such production indicators as reactor cooling pond temperatures, which can be used to estimate plutonium production rates. Image change detection also can be useful in detecting undeclared production related facilities and activities. This effort exploits a unique combination of DOE laboratory expertise in the nuclear weapons production cycle, production signatures, laser systems, rapid prototyping, and satellite systems engineering. Planned funding for production detection activities in FY 1997 is $87.0 million compared to $103.0 million in FY 1996.

5.2.2 Monitoring Worldwide Nuclear Testing. Nuclear test monitoring has been a major component of the DOE Verification and Control Technology program for many years. Experience in developing and deploying systems, in conjunction with DoD, to monitor the Limited Test Ban Treaty (LTBT) and the Threshold Test Ban Treaty has been recently refocused on verifying and monitoring the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). DOE is developing and delivering elements of a U.S. National Technical Means as well as international monitoring systems for this purpose. DOE has a long standing partnership with DoD in designing and producing nuclear detonation sensor systems deployed on Global Positioning System (GPS) and Defense Support Program (DSP) satellites. These include optical, x-ray, particle spectrometric, and electromagnetic pulse sensor subsystems. Currently, DOE is delivering four GPS flight payloads per year. Development is also underway for the next generation of satellite based nuclear detonation detection sensors to support the CTBT regime. (See also Section 5.4 below.)

Other technical methods development associated with the CTBT involve hydroacoustics, seismology, radionuclide detection and characterization, and infrasound techniques. One focus of the seismic studies is to characterize regional areas of interest to improve the detection of smaller and potentially evasive tests. A product of these studies will be more detailed seismic databases for China and the Middle East, along with associated improvements in discrimination algorithms and specialized automated data processing techniques. This effort draws upon DOE laboratory experience in nuclear testing, mining and seismic geology, field measurements, and data fusion. DOE also is developing a prototype infrasound station for eventual commercial production and availability to the International Monitoring System. DOE laboratory experience in atmospheric science is especially relevant to this activity. Hydroacoustic monitoring provides yet another complementary tool to detect low yield, potentially evasive testing. DOE is also developing the specifications for an ocean monitoring system. Intermediate accomplishments include signature assessments of evasive explosions and the development of detection system specifications. Radionuclide techniques offer another important tool by providing critical forensic data to support CTBT verification. DOE is developing radionuclide particulate as well as prototype xenon gas samplers for commercialization and use by the International Monitoring System. Planned funding for nuclear test monitoring activities in FY 1997 is $72.0 million, unchanged from FY 1996.

5.2.3 Preventing and Detecting the Diversion/Smuggling of Nuclear Materials. Technology R&D for diversion prevention is focused on securing nuclear material at its source, detecting stolen material in transit, and determining the origin of intercepted material. DOE and National Laboratory personnel are part of an international technical working group to help determine the sources of smuggled nuclear materials. The fundamental approach is to apply the full scope of laboratory forensic methods on intercepted materials. This program exploits multiple expertise in environmental and materials production signatures, radiochemical analysis, and law enforcement support. Planned funding for this activity in FY 1997 is $31.0 million, unchanged from FY 1996.

5.2.4 Securing Nuclear Materials, Technology and Expertise in Russia and the NIS. Two DOE programs comprise this activity: the Materials Protection, Control and Accounting (MPC&A) program and the Industrial Partnering Program (IPP). The MPC&A program is primarily related to materials security and nonproliferation, and the goal of the IPP is to engage scientists and engineers from the weapons institutes of the NIS in peaceful technology applications in order to help stabilize personnel and resources that represent a potential expertise proliferation risk. Funding requested in FY 1997 is $94.4 million for FSU MPC&A activities and $15 million for the IPP effort, compared to FY 1996 funding levels of $85.6 million for MPC&A activities and $10 million for IPP.

The MPC&A Program. The specific objectives of the MPC&A program are: 1) improve material protection control and accounting at Russian and NIS nuclear facilities which contain weapons-usable material; 2) develop with Russian and NIS specialists technical equipment suitable for mass production and distribution in the FSU nuclear complex; and 3) work with national authorities in Russia and the NIS to institute and standardize MPC&A activities across the civil and military nuclear complex.

DOE has been very successful in coordinating technical expert interactions at the government-to-government and laboratory-to-laboratory levels between the U.S. and states of the FSU to implement upgraded fissile material security procedures and technology. Under the MPC&A program, DOE is working to install modern safeguards equipment and to provide technical training at over 35 facilities throughout the Russian Federation and in the NIS of Kazakstan, Ukraine, Belarus, Georgia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Uzbekistan.

Under the government-to-government MPC&A program, DOE is conducting work at over 25 facilities in eight countries. The focus of this work is to enhance rapidly MPC&A for weapons-usable nuclear materials. In FY 1995, DOE assumed executive responsibility for the government-to-government MPC&A program and in FY 1996 began to receive funding directly to carry out this program. In June 1995, DOE entered into a cooperative arrangement with the Russian Federal Nuclear Radiation and Safety Authority (denoted by its Russian acronym as "GAN") to implement a Russian state system for MPC&A. Under this program, MPC&A upgrades will be implemented at six Russian sites; regulatory documents and federal and inspection databases will be developed; inspectors and operators will be trained; and inspection equipment will be provided. At the January 1996 meeting of the Gore-Chernomyrdin Commission, the U.S. and Russia agreed to expand their MPC&A cooperation to six new sites, four of which will receive upgrades under the government-to-government program.

Since the summer of 1994, six DOE laboratories have been actively collaborating with their Russian counterparts to implement an integrated MPC&A plan at Russian institutes. Since the laboratory-to-laboratory program's inception, significant progress has been made in several important areas. Substantial technical work, including physical protection upgrades and demonstrations of MPC&A technology, has been accomplished at the Kurchatov Institute, the Institute of Physics and Power Engineering at Obninsk, the Institute of Experimental Physics (Arzamas-16), and other institutes. The work includes the application of a wide range of physical protection and material control and accounting equipment supplied by the laboratory-to-laboratory program and by Russian suppliers. For example, at Chelyabinsk-70 work has included test and evaluation of nuclear portal monitors, hand-held radiation detectors, and nuclear material accounting systems including bar code systems. The laboratory-to-laboratory MPC&A program now encompasses 14 Russian facilities. Laboratory-to-laboratory activities in the Russian Federation have continued into FY 1996 supported by DOE funds.

Over the life of the MPC&A program, DOE has also established effective working relationships with the Russian Ministry of Atomic Energy (MINATOM), GAN, and the principal Russian institutes within MINATOM. These Russian organizations are responsible for large quantities of highly enriched uranium and plutonium stored within their facilities and for dissemination of MPC&A technology throughout the Russian nuclear weapons complex. In addition, work is being undertaken with seven independent civilian nuclear facilities, including the Kurchatov Institute, which has facilitated cooperation on Russian naval nuclear fuel MPC&A.

The efforts of DOE to secure nuclear materials and expertise in Russia and the NIS have expanded rapidly since their beginning. From one site involving 75 kilograms of highly enriched uranium in 1994, the program achieved MPC&A upgrades for over eight tons of plutonium and highly enriched uranium at 26 facilities in 1995. In 1996, planned achievements will involve hundreds of tons of nuclear materials at over 40 facilities. During FY 1997, the intense activity experienced during the past two years will continue as MPC&A upgrades continue at the 17 facilities added during the last six months, and as additional facilities are added under cooperation with the Russian Navy and with other locations and activities in the FSU/NIS.

The Industrial Partnering Program. As stated above, the primary objective of the IPP is to stabilize personnel and resources within the FSU to minimize the risk of proliferation of nuclear weapons expertise. Under the IPP, DOE national laboratories work with Russian and NIS institutes to identify and evaluate the commercial potential of various products related to the R&D activities conducted at the Russian/NIS institutes. Partnerships are then facilitated, ideally through cost sharing arrangements with U.S. industry, to develop specific commercial products. To date, over 200 IPP projects have been initiated, including 175 laboratory-to-laboratory projects (Thrust I) and 32 industry cost-shared projects (Thrust II). These projects have engaged over 2,000 weapons scientists and engineers on various types of projects including those involving, for example, MPC&A, nuclear safety, materials science, biotechnology, and instrumentation.

5.2.5 Limiting Weapons-Usable Fissile Materials Worldwide. The objectives of the DOE fissile material limitation effort are: 1) promote alternatives to the civil use of plutonium; 2) eliminate the civil use of highly enriched uranium; 3) reduce stockpiles of highly enriched uranium and plutonium; 4) initiate regional fissile material control activities; 5) shut down production reactors; and 6) negotiate a fissile material cutoff convention. Funding requested for this activity in FY 1997 is $16.6 million, up from $8.7 million in FY 1996.

In 1996 activities are continuing which provide technical support for International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections of U.S. excess fissile material, the research reactor reduced enrichment program and fissile material cutoff negotiations, and completed compliance measure negotiations for Russian plutonium reactor shutdown and plutonium storage. Efforts in 1997 will include continued support for: 1) a Russian plutonium production reactor core conversion and storage regime; 2) IAEA inspections of excess U.S. fissile materials; and 3) the research reactor reduced enrichment program and completion of the fissile material cutoff convention negotiations.

5.2.6 Ensuring Transparent and Irreversible Reductions in Global Nuclear Stockpiles. The objectives of DOE's nuclear stockpile reduction program are: 1) exchange and confirm data on inventories; 2) monitor nuclear warhead production and expedite dismantlement of excess weapons; 3) conduct reciprocal inspections of nuclear components and materials; 4) purchase 500 metric tons of highly enriched uranium from dismantled warheads; and 5) expand weapons reductions. Funding requested for this activity in FY 1997 is $4.0 million compared to $5.8 million in FY 1996.

Activities in 1996 and 1997 support dismantlement technical exchanges with Russia; continuing negotiations on safeguards, transparency, and irreversibility of nuclear weapon dismantlement; and highly enriched uranium purchase transparency negotiations. Planned activities for 1997 are: 1) working toward conclusion of the Stockpile Data Exchange Agreement and highly enriched uranium mutual reciprocal inspection demonstration; 2) initiation of spot check negotiations to confirm declarations; and 3) continued technical support for Russian highly enriched uranium purchase transparency.

5.2.7 Controlling Nuclear Exports. The objectives of the DOE export control program are: 1) assist regions of concern in effectively controlling exports and establishing responsible supplier policies; 2) implement statutory licensing requirements; 3) strengthen multilateral supplier initiatives; 4) foster transparency through automated information sharing and analysis; and 5) advance nonproliferation objectives through technology security. Funding requested for this activity in FY 1997 is $16.9 million compared to $14.5 million in FY 1996.

DOE's export control activities include coordinating the technical review of nuclear and nuclear-related dual-use license applications and developing a coherent policy and supporting procedures to protect export controlled information from release that may benefit proliferants. DOE has developed and is enhancing a proliferation information network to provide proliferation analysis and technical information to support the technical evaluation of license applications. DOE participates in the formulation of multilateral and international export control policy by contributing technical expertise to negotiations and negotiators and, in some cases, leading negotiations on export control regimes (e.g., the Zangger Committee). These export control regimes include the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) Exporters Committee, the Nuclear Suppliers Group, and the Wassenaar Arrangement. DOE has recently finished participating in updating the Nuclear Suppliers Group Dual-Use List, which clarified previously complicated descriptions of machine tools and updated 32 entries on the Dual-Use Annex. DOE is also leading an exercise in the Zangger Committee to clarify nonsensitive fuel-cycle technology on the Trigger List. In addition support is provided to U.S. proliferation prevention policy through the use of the Nuclear Suppliers Group information sharing system, which provides technical information and notification of license application denials by other member states. DOE plays a pivotal role in interagency efforts to strengthen foreign export controls by providing direct consultations, training and technical assistance to the governments of Central Eastern Europe and the FSU who wish to improve their capabilities and performance in the export control arena.

DOE has developed and begun the implementation of its integrated export control plan, The Department of Energy Plan for Cooperation on Export Controls in the Former Soviet Union. The main goal of the plan is to assist Russia and the NIS in stemming the illicit flow of nuclear and nuclear-related dual-use commodities, materials, and technologies through the creation or enhancement of a robust control system one which utilizes, to the fullest extent possible, the respective countries' scientific and industrial base. Efforts in 1996 will continue to: 1) assist in identifying illegal transfers of dual-use technologies through publication (in English and Russian) of a Nuclear Suppliers Group Customs Guidebook on sensitive goods; 2) increase FSU laboratory-to-laboratory arrangements with other institutes and countries including the National Nuclear Center in Kazakstan and the Academy of Sciences (National Scientific Center - Institute for Nuclear Research) in Ukraine; and 3) promote the role of technical experts in export license reviews.

In 1997 DOE will continue to serve as the principal U.S. agency for: 1) the identification of commodities that could be of significance for nuclear weapons purposes; 2) the negotiation of multilateral controls on these items; and 3) the international nuclear export control regimes, in particular the Nuclear Suppliers Group and the Nuclear NPT Exporters Committee.

5.2.8 Strengthening the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime. In promoting a stronger nuclear nonproliferation regime, DOE: 1) promotes adherence to the NPT worldwide; 2) increases the effectiveness and efficiency of the IAEA; 3) supports the conclusion of the negotiation of a comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty; 4) facilitates IAEA inspections of excess fissile materials; and 5) promotes regional nonproliferation measures. Requested funding for this activity in FY 1997 is $39.3 million compared to $23.2 million in FY 1996.

Efforts underway in 1996 to provide technical support to negotiations on beginning operations to stabilize spent fuel pool water and store spent fuel at the research reactor in Nyongbyon, North Korea will continue. DOE supported the successful negotiation of the U.S./EURATOM Agreement for Cooperation in nonproliferation matters, as well as agreements for cooperation with FSU, Switzerland, and China. Efforts will continue to support international negotiations, such as the fissile materials cutoff treaty, through site visits and bilateral discussions, the continuing spent fuel stabilization efforts at Nyongbyon, and a series of technical workshops with Chinese scientists on arms control issues. The Cooperative Monitoring Center will be used to further regional arms control and nonproliferation activities including: increased engagement with Middle Eastern states through training, verification experiments, and planning for regional crisis prevention centers; expanded international cooperation in remote monitoring and seismic verification; increased cooperation with arms control organizations in South Korea; and greater engagement with Indian and Pakistani scientists on regional verification. Plans are underway to: 1) initiate IAEA safeguards on excess plutonium at Rocky Flats; 2) develop new IAEA safeguards methods for excess nuclear materials in sensitive forms; 3) assist IAEA implementation of strengthened safeguards measures for routine use of enhanced technology (e.g., environmental sampling, remote monitoring, and enhanced information management); and 4) enter into safeguards agreements with South Africa, China, Sweden, Finland, and Canada.

For 1997, planned activities will include: 1) implementation of a comprehensive nuclear test ban and regional calibration exercises; 2) assistance in implementing a nuclear framework agreement with North Korea, including the completion of the canning of spent fuel at Nyongbyon; and 3) support for other regional arms control approaches to the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle in Asia.

5.2.9 Nuclear Emergency and Terrorism Response. The DOE maintains several emergency response assets postured to respond to events that may occur should proliferation prevention efforts fail. DOE conducts analyses and provides operational and technical support in response to nuclear emergency and terrorism events worldwide. DOE's threat assessment process consists of an evaluation of nuclear threats from technical, operational, and behavioral standpoints. The assessment is integrated into the decision process for deployment of operational assets.

The emergency response asset with primary responsibility for responding to acts of nuclear terrorism is the Nuclear Emergency Search Team (NEST). NEST provides operational and technical support for resolution of incidents or accidents involving nuclear materials and can be deployed anywhere in the world under the authority of the lead federal agency (i.e., the FBI for operations within the U.S. and the Department of State for overseas operations). This national resource of skilled personnel and specialized equipment, which can be called upon as needed, is built on DOE's nuclear weapons design and production expertise. These resources are the most effective national assets to locate, identify, assess, and disable nuclear weapons and devices. These include, for example, improvised nuclear devices with the potential to produce a nuclear yield as well as radiological dispersal devices which could be used to spread radioactive contamination into the environment. Requested funding for DOE emergency management and response programs in FY 1997 is $35.3 million compared to $37.0 million in FY 1996.

5.3 DOE Chemical and Biological Science and Technology

A significant opportunity exists for improved integration of new ideas and solutions into CW/BW defense and counterproliferation through more extensive utilization of DOE's capabilities and core competencies in the chemical and biological sciences. Currently, both DoD and U.S. Intelligence directly draw upon DOE laboratory capabilities in a broad range of areas through the "Work-for-Others" process. Essentially all activities conducted under this arrangement are focused on critical near-term defense requirements. DOE, however, has maintained long-standing and preeminent R&D programs in the basic chemical sciences, life sciences, and biotechnology in support of traditional DOE missions (such as nuclear weapons production, production cleanup and environmental remediation, and occupational health and safety). The cutting edge science and technology developments being conducted by the DOE laboratories are key to developing longer term, more difficult CW/BW defense and counterproliferation solutions to meet user community needs.

In FY 1996, DoD and, to a lesser extent, other government agencies are sponsoring approximately $30 million in CW/BW detection technology development at the DOE national laboratories. This work is primarily focused on finding near-term solutions to the demilitarization of CW munitions stockpiles and conducting strategic and battlefield intelligence collection. Nonproliferation technology development undertaken by DOE for its nuclear mission, but which at the scientific level is also directly applicable to CW/BW counterproliferation, amounts to approximately $70 million out of the $200 million verification and control technology R&D program. In comparison, over this same fiscal year period, the DOE laboratories will conduct over $320 million in biotechnology research under the auspices and coordination of the DOE Biotechnology Interlaboratory Council. Chemical sciences research activities exceed this amount. Included in this research are such relevant activities as: studies of toxicological effects, development of new and miniaturized chemical and biological sensors, remote measurement and sensing of chemical and biological species, development of biological and chemical remediation techniques, and development of advanced chemical and biological laboratory analytical methods.

5.4 DOE Technologies Developed to IOC

Except for the specific portions of the satellite nuclear detonation detection activities for nuclear test monitoring, DOE-developed technologies are not normally taken to initial operating capability (IOC). Under DOE technology development activities, the end product is a capability demonstration of a system or method, most commonly in the form of a field capable prototype, developed in direct response to requirements identified by a user agency. It is at this stage in the hardware development cycle that DOE program managers encourage and participate in the transfer of the technology product to the user community for field hardening, engineering refinements, and production.

DOE currently produces satellite-borne sensors for the national capability to monitor and verify compliance with the LTBT. These sensors are secondary payloads on the GPS and DSP satellites (as described above in Section 5.2.2). DOE is developing the next generation of improved optical, x-ray, and space environmental sensors to provide a better capability to monitor the continuation of the LTBT and to enable the U.S. to monitor and verify the CTBT. The sensor systems under development are planned to go from development, through IOC, to production to meet required delivery dates for the next generation of GPS satellites. In addition to these satellite systems, DOE is also developing ground based components for airborne radionuclide sampling systems and will be heavily involved in supporting other agencies of the U.S. Government in identifying reliable commercial suppliers.

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