APPENDIX 2:Assessment Institutions
For more than 20 years, American scholars from major universities and privately endowed research organizations like the Brookings Institution, Heritage Foundation, American Enterprise Institute, and Council on Foreign Relations have all been received by their apparent "counterparts" in Beijing for discussions on foreign policy and defense issues. However, these Chinese institutions are quite different from their U.S. counterparts. Although their staff produce journals and books, and participate in international conferences like their U.S. "counterparts," they have additional roles.
Cited Authors at the Seven Main Institutes
CIIS CIISS NDU SIIS Jiang Yuechun
AMS CASS CICIR Chen Zhou
The primary difference between these Chinese institutes and American research institutes is their "ownership." Research institutes are "owned" by the major institutional players in the national security decision making process in China. Their staffs in many cases have access to what in the US would be considered government classified information such as cables from embassies abroad. Unfortunately, it is difficult to be precise about these differences. Members of these institutes often decline to discuss in any detail the exact nature of their internal reports. They are not puppets, however, and many research institutions are important in their own right for the creative ideas they produce. Their leaders carry great prestige and have high rank in the Communist Party.
CHINA INSTITUTE OF CONTEMPORARY INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
china institute of contemporary international relations CICIR analysts do not hide their affiliations with the Ministry of State Security, the Chinese leadership, and their access to classified materials, but they like to stress their open source research and publications. They are proud of their openness to foreign visitors, their extensive travel abroad, their foreign language capabilities, and their record of publishing short-term predictions about foreign political events, things that more cautious analysts do not have. CICIR also hosts many U.S. visitors to China.
CICIR employs about 500 professional analysts, slightly larger than the Academy of Military Science (AMS) and much larger than the Shanghai Institute of International Studies (SIIS), the China Institute of International Strategic Studies (CIISS), and the China Institute of International Studies (CIIS), but dwarfed by the 5,000 at the Chinese Academy of Social Science (CASS). CICIR has a campus-like compound in northwest Beijing to which dozens of open-source materials are air mailed daily. In the United States, an equivalent institute might cost $50 million or more annually to operate. CICIR maintains its own publishing house (Shishi chubanshe) and book store and publishes a monthly journal in Chinese, Xiandai guoji guanxi (Contemporary International Relations). One or two articles are selected from the 10 or more in each issue to be translated and distributed free for exchange to foreign counterparts.
CICIR seems to focus on analysis and forecasts based largely on open source publications and interviews with foreign leaders. It has its own training college. Numerous foreign visitors have been impressed with the quality of CICIR briefings and articles. CICIR analysts can disagree with each other and conduct limited debates, even in the presence of foreign visitors. CICIR is well known for its boldness in making forecasts about political, economic, and military trends. A recent collection of articles by the director of the East Asia Division examined Japan in the 21st century. The author-editor complained that he could find no counterpart studies of Japan's future in the United States or Europe.
china instItute of international studies and
SHANGHAI INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL STUDIES
These two research institutes are under the budgetary control of the Foreign Ministry. Graduates of China's Foreign Affairs College may be assigned to the CIIS and SIIS. Each institute is much smaller than CICIR, neither exceeding 100 professional staff. They publish journals and use the Foreign Ministry's press for publishing books and research reports. The CIIS journal Guoji wenti yanjiu (International Studies) features articles by its staff who are often diplomats on rotation. The SIIS has numerous publications, including the annual Guoji xingshi nianjian (The Yearbook Survey of International Affairs), the biweekly Guoji zhanwang (World Outlook), and Guoji wenti (International Review), as well as two journals of English language translations of selected articles from the main journal, SIIS Paper and SIIS Journal.
SIIS focuses on future issues more boldly than CIIS, where the diplomat/analysts seem more comfortable with research on the recent past and near-term trends. Both avoid dealing with military or future warfare issues. Each has an impressive building and happily receives foreign visitors, CIIS in Beijing and SIIS in Shanghai. There are five main SIIS research departments: American Studies, Japanese Studies, European Studies, Asian-Pacific Studies, and Comprehensive Studies, which focuses on global issues.
chinese academy of social science
Once a part of the Chinese Academy of Science, the Chinese Academy of Social Science was established in 1977. It occupies a 12-story building in downtown Beijing and maintains a professional staff of 5,000 scholars and has its own publishing house for books. It houses five institutes: the Institute of World Economics and Politics, the Institute of American Studies, the Institute of Russian Studies, the Institute of Japan Studies, and the Taiwan Institute. Each institute publishes its own journal. The academy's library on the ground floor has specialized collections for each institute. CASS scholars and institute directors can advocate policies in the national press. CASS is viewed as being highly influential. Li Tieying, who was appointed by the State Council as the president of CASS in March 1998, is also a member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party and serves as a State Councillor. An article in the Hong Kong Ta Kung Pao, a state-owned newspaper, reported recently, "According to the conference held in Beijing today to discuss information-related affairs of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, last year central leaders and other high-ranking officials read and commented on hundreds of CASS research reports, some of which were republished in documents of the Central Committee of the State Council, and research results were studied and applied by relevant departments." (654)
CASS research is oriented toward the future, both in terms of China's domestic development and the world structure. Currently, CASS is reported to be focused on establishing a new set of research projects that deal with "major historical challenges and opportunities facing China after five or ten years or after even several decades in the next century. . . . At present, a 'research plan on major issues in 2010' is being discussed and shaped, including the following aspects: the experiences and lessons of the rise and fall of the Soviet Union, development trends of modern capitalism, the formation of property rights system and public ownership in a market economy, financial globalization and national economic security, the mechanism for achieving socialist democracy, problems of central and west China, and problems of corruption." (655)
Many of China's most famous human rights activists after the Tiananmen incident in 1989 came from CASS, such as the former director of the Institute for Marxist Leninist Studies and the former director of the Institute of Political Science, Su Shaozhi and Yan Jiaqi, who are well known leaders of the democracy movement in exile. In the early 1980s, CASS leaders lead the economic reform effort. In the mid-1990s, Liu Ji, as deputy CASS director, has encouraged reform and published books about Jiang Zemin's reform concepts. It was reported in the Western press in July 1998, that CASS was one of the institutes tasked by Jiang Zemin to study the political systems of other nations. The Wall Street Journal quoted a CASS researcher as saying that "the U.S. [system] obviously made an impression" on Jiang. Upon his return from his summit in the U.S. in October 1997, "Jiang asked the academy to draft a manual on democracy for mandatory reading by high-ranking officials. The manual to be passed out with booklets on human rights and the rule of law, will feature sections on the historic development of democracy, Western models of democracy and China's own democratic path." (656) However, a recent shakeup in the top leadership of CASS, in October 1998, may be moving the institution in a more conservative direction. The Hong Kong Standard reported that the retirement of four vice-presidents, including Liu Ji, was, "a move seen by many as consolidating academy president Li Tieying's power." (657)
academy of military science
Founded in 1958, AMS produces journals, books and classified reports for the Chinese military strategic planning process. Of all the research institutes, AMS is the most secretive and least visited by foreigners. It occupies a large compound northwest of Beijing and employs more than 500 professional military staff (a 10-minute walk from the National Defense University). AMS has no students (other than a new small graduate student program). It performs analysis for the Central Military Commission and the General Staff Department. It participates in task forces organized by other important organizations such as the Commission on Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense.
The president of the Academy of Military Science is usually a full general, equivalent to a Deputy Chief of Staff. This would translate roughly in American protocol terms to an Under Secretary of Defense combined with a four- star flag officer. The current commandant of AMS, appointed in 1998, is General Liu Jingsong, former commander of the PLA Lanzhou military region. The AMS has its own publishing house (Junshi kexue chubanshe) and publishes an estimated 50 books a year. Its open source journal is Zhongguo junshi kexue (China Military Science), published by the AMS editorial board; its restricted journals are World Military Trends and Military Thought. AMS leaders acknowledge a counterpart relationship with the General Staff Academy in Moscow.
The AMS has 10 departments, each of which has 50 or more officers, and a few of which publish their own journals: Planning and Organization Department; Strategic Studies Department; Operations and Tactics Department; Military Systems Department; Military History Department, which publishes the bi-monthly Military History; Foreign Military Studies Department, which publishes the monthly World Military Review; Military Encyclopedia Department; Center for Mao Zedong Military Thought; Center for Political Education of the People's Liberation Army (PLA); and Center for Operations Research, which publishes the quarterly Military System Engineering. According to the introductory brochure describing the institute, AMS is the "national center for military studies; AMS plans and coordinates for the army all the research programs concerning military science. . . . AMS has made good progress in war gaming, command automation, machine translation, and military data bases. It has formed its own operational and tactical simulation systems, military experts systems, and specific research models."
AMS seems to be more closed to foreigners than the National Defense University (NDU)--its staff rarely travel abroad, and no foreign delegations receive permission to visit the AMS Compound without an extensive review by the unit called the General Staff Foreign Affairs Bureau, one mission of which is to control contact between foreigners and sensitive Chinese military organizations. An article in May 1998 commemorating the 40th anniversary of the founding of the AMS mentioned, however, that since it has been under the leadership of Chairman Jiang Zemin, the institute has "gradually improved contacts with foreign institutions and organizations for military scientific research, and enabled a setup of research open to the outside world to take place." The article, however, praised the institute for "having completed more than 1,000 research projects" in its 40 years of existence, especially those written of late:
In recent years, aiming at the forward positions of military reforms in the world, the Academy of Military Sciences presented more than 200 research reports on such major realistic issues as strategies for border security, guidance for strategies and battles under high-technology conditions, and the regularization of our army under the new situation. (658)
The strategy department of AMS publishes books on military doctrine and strategy with a focus on the military thinking of Chairman Mao. In the past decade, it added books on the strategic thinking of Deng Xiaoping. A recent book by the former president of the Chinese Academy of Military Science, The Categories of Military Science by General Zheng Wenhan, offers numerous footnotes to Soviet works on the same subjects and employs the categories established in Soviet military science publications. Chinese authors never explicitly acknowledge their debt to Soviet military science and to Soviet military terminology. Readers are not made aware of the Soviet tutorial role in China in the early 1950s because there were political penalties paid by senior Chinese general officers in the 1950s for assuming policies civilian Communist leaders deemed to be pro-Soviet. Perhaps this is one reason Chinese military authors still do not refer to their deep Soviet roots in some matters of doctrine and terminology.
The Chinese Academy of Military Science has a mission to understand future warfare and the future security environment. Like its former Soviet counterpart, it still must use Marxist-Leninist "military science," which includes the notion of "dialectics" in analyzing technological influence on military doctrine. According to both Soviet and Chinese authors, the operation over time of "military dialectics" will more or less automatically change the nature of warfare quite drastically as a completely new synthesis is formed from the clash of thesis and antithesis. To examine the future of warfare, a vital task of military science is to anticipate and to identify the "dialectical" arrival of "military-technical revolutions." These military-technical revolutions are neither produced nor accidentally discovered by a single genius. They must occur with historical inevitability as science and technology progress forward. Military strategists must therefore be diligent to detect an approaching military technical revolution, because it will require the re-design of obsolete military doctrine.
Although the AMS does not have regular classes, in 1988 six of China's most important military strategists created a doctoral program in military science at the AMS, authorized by the State Council. It is significant that one of the two major fields for doctoral degrees is "Future Warfare." The program director is General Li Jijun, who has had a long association with the Academy. Significantly, General Li supervised the 38th Group Army near Beijing from 1983 to 1988, when it was the test bed for the new Chinese concept of the mechanized group army (corps). Prior to that experimental work, General Li had been with Academy of Military Science for many years, particularly in the field of foreign army studies. He compared strategic concepts in the Soviet Army with U.S. joint force doctrine. There are five senior officers of the AMS in charge of the new doctoral program: General Mi Zhenyu, former Deputy Commandant; General Wang Zhenxi; General Wang Pufeng, a former Director of the Strategic Research Department; Senior Colonel Qian Junde of the Strategy Department; and Zhang Zuiliang. General Mi was Deputy Commandant of the AMS beginning in 1985 and is the author of an important book on Chinese national development concepts published in 1988 and described in chapter 6. General Wang Zhenxi is a specialist in foreign military studies, who served as military attaché in both Yugoslavia and Romania, from 1977 to 1983. He became head of the Foreign Military Studies Department in 1986. General Wang Pufeng was the Deputy Director of the Strategy Research Department at the AMS in 1991. In an interview in China Daily, October 10, 1992, General Wang called for more attention by the PLA to the challenge of information warfare. He has been a prominent author in 1995 and 1996 on the Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA).
Since 1992, there has been a limited restoration of contact between China's Academy of Military Science and its Soviet model, the General Staff Academy. A former Vice President of the Soviet Academy was even invited to come to Beijing for a year for research on the significance of the revolution in military affairs that has been a major subject at the Russian academy for 20 years.
national defense university
China's NDU was formed in 1985 by combining three colleges, one for logistics instruction, one for political/commissar instruction, and a more general military academy. Unlike AMS, the NDU trains hundreds of students annually. It also has its own publishing house (Guofang daxue chubanshe) that produces 50 or more books annually, including textbooks. Much more open than the AMS, NDU has in the past decade hosted hundreds of foreign military delegations. NDU staff travel widely abroad. An exchange of letters between the U.S. NDU in Washington and the Chinese NDU in Beijing established an exchange program between the two institutions on the premise that they are roughly counterparts.
Operating under the Central Military Commission, NDU has two main functions: to train military commanders, officers, and government officials and, as described by the brochure handed out to visiting foreigners, to "conduct research into the modernization of national defense in order to advise the Central Military Commission and other military headquarters in making decisions." Its 13 teaching divisions "specialize in: strategic studies; operational art of war; command and management; arms and services; foreign military studies; Marxist theories; political work; international economics and politics; logistics studies; science and technology; foreign languages; foreign training; and audiovisual teaching."
In the past decade, a Scientific Research Department at NDU and its subordinate Institute of National Security Studies (INSS) have been increasingly involved in efforts to redefine Chinese military strategy and doctrine. A comparison of the two major journals produced by NDU and the Academy of Military Science shows they have different perspectives and methodologies. The Guofan daxue xuebao (NDU Journal) seems more interested in local war issues and has published very little on the potential RMA compared to the AMS journal. Perhaps to correct the NDU near-term focus, it announced in 1996 the formation of a center for military research on future warfare issues, including the RMA as well as traditional statecraft. General Pan Zhenqiang and Colonel Zhu Chenghu, director and deputy of the NDU INSS, publish articles on the security environment in national newspapers and frequently attend foreign conferences.
chinese society for strategY AND MANAGEMENT
Founded in 1989, the Chinese Society for Strategy and Management (CSSM) occupies a building in the former U. S. Embassy compound, made famous during the 55-day Boxer Siege in Beijing. It publishes a lengthy quarterly journal, Zhanlue yu guanli (Strategy and Management), containing articles forecasting the future security environment. According to the brochure describing the institute, "Many famous veteran national leaders diplomats and writers who have made great contributions to China's modernization serve as its senior advisers." The chairman of the CSSM is former Vice Premier of the State Council Gu Mu, and one of the Vice Chairmen is former Defense Minister Zhang Aiping, who is perhaps best known in China for his successful management of the Chinese nuclear weapons program. Indeed, CSSM articles have been described by some as more nationalistic than the journals of CASS and CICIR. (659) CSSM journal articles have discussed the rise of Chinese nationalism. (660) In 1996, the journal announced it would annually publish China's ranking in the various international indices of competitiveness and Comprehensive National Power. In 1997 and 1998, CSSM issued an annual strategic assessment, written by authors from CICIR, CASS, and the AMS.
foundation for international strategic studies (fiss)
The Foundation for International Strategic Studies (FISS) was founded in the last few years by Chinese military officers on leave or retired from active duty and is authorized to engage in business as well as strategic studies. It publishes a few books a year and a journal and actively seeks "counterparts" overseas with whom to co-host conferences on political/military issues, including the future of the security environment. As a result of its close connection with both the Foreign Ministry and Chinese Military Intelligence, FISS can sometimes take more controversial positions than other better known research institutions. For example, in 1995 FISS published Can Taiwan Become Independent?, a book other research institutions and publishing houses had declined to print because it was too controversial in concluding that a major danger existed in Taiwan's movement toward independence.
commission on science, technology, and
industry for national defense (costind)
COSTIND coordinates at least six ministry-level defense industrial complexes, which seem to be responsible for both production and research and development for future defense weapons and equipment. They publish magazines and books with assessments of the future. COSTIND has its own publishing house, newspaper, and series of journals, most of which are not released publicly. Some Chinese interviewed complained that COSTIND shrouds itself in secrecy not so much to prevent foreign observation but to maintain its autonomy from the Chinese military services and the General Staff.
There is apparently resentment that hundreds or thousands of COSTIND employees wear military uniforms and are assigned military ranks even though they have never participated in military units or received formal training. One General Staff officer said COSTIND officials can be spotted on the street by their nonuniform socks, coats, sweaters and general nonmilitary appearance even while wearing PLA uniforms. The COSTIND headquarters building in Beijing is a long distance from the rest of the military compound and General Staff buildings. Another example of the COSTIND little concealed autonomous style can be seen in the two books it has released about its history since the 1950s that clearly distinguish between COSTIND and the Chinese military, for whom it produces weapons and equipment. (661)
COSTIND oversees a vast conglomerate of research institutions, factories, and government organizations that may employ more than 3 million people. COSTIND has published a series of books on the history of China's defense science and technology since the 1950s. One theme is the need to have "three moves on the chess board," a Chinese metaphor for the need to have weapons acquisition plans thought through in terms of an action-reaction sequence of possible opponents.
China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC)
In addition to the central research institutes of COSTIND, assessments of the future security environment are also prepared by a number of other large research institutes in the complex, such as the CASC.
China Aerospace is not a corporation in the Western sense. It controls the ministries and firms that manufacture weapons and civil-use equipment in aviation and missiles. (662) It is particularly important in providing published assessments of the future of space warfare. (663) The Chinese Aerospace Corporation complex, together with the Ministry of Electronics, may be the two organizations most interested in the RMA. Chinese analysts interpret the RMA as a reduction in emphasis on armor, artillery, large naval vessels, and manned fighter aircraft that are all "products" of other parts of COSTIND, not China Aerospace. According to the version of 21st-century warfare described in some COSTIND and AMS publications, it will be the capability to link "sensors" with "shooters" while preserving the "invisibility" of both that will be decisive.
CHINA INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL STRATEGIC STUDIES
The china institute of international strategic studies CIISS is an important public research institution subordinate to the General Staff's Second Department. CIISS publishes a quarterly in Chinese and English, Guoji zhanlue yanjiu (International Strategic Studies). However, CIISS is located far from the secretive General Staff Department of the PLA. Its chairman is Deputy Chief of the General Staff for Intelligence General Xiong Guankai (whose speech at Harvard in December 1997 on the future security environment is described in chapter 1). Because of China's traditional secrecy about military matters, a few retired military attachés and a few civilians at the CIISS provide the sole "window" on general staff and military intelligence assessments.
It is unfortunate that foreign visitors are not permitted to visit the General Staff Department. The GSD, several blocks from the Zhongnanhai Compound facing the lake at Beihai Park, may have over 2,000 officers. In the 1950s the GSD had Soviet advisors resident for several years. Its internal structure probably resembles the former Soviet General Staff. The First Department manages operations and probably is the national command center for all PLA forces. The Second Department is the military intelligence service and has its own headquarters building. Its chief is usually a deputy chief of staff of the PLA and is a prominent representative sent abroad on public diplomacy missions. Unlike the well-known Second Department of the GSD, its Third Department is the "no such agency" of China and apparently is responsible for signals intelligence, which foreign experts such as Desmond Ball believe may be the world's third- or even second-largest communications intelligence organization after the United States and possibly Russia. (664) The Fourth Department is the most recently established part of GSD; since 1990 it has been responsible for electronic warfare and early warning analysis. (665)
Of these General Staff departments, the Operations Department is probably the largest and most important in terms of its direct responsibilities for military operational planning and the program of annual exercises. However, the Second Department (the Chinese equivalent of the Soviet intelligence agency, GRU) is apparently also quite large, with some estimates as high as 2000 analysts and professional staff, according to one interview. The Second Department and possibly the Third have their own headquarters compounds in northern Beijing. According to interviews, the Second Department's director, as a Deputy Chief of the General Staff, apparently serves as the PLA representative in foreign policy discussions below the Politburo level. It would be a mistake to see the GSD Second Department as a counterpart to the American Defense Intelligence Agency because of this policy role the DIA lacks. Rather, the GSD Second Department seems to perform not only the functions of DIA foreign intelligence collection and analysis but also the policy deliberation role played by the 300 professional staff under the U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs. Thus, the CIISS quarterly journal merits attention.
654. "Central Leadership Attaches Importance to 'Think Tanks'; Heeds the Views of Experts of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Before Making Major Decisions," Ta Kung Pao, March 3, 1998, in FBIS-CHI-98-062, March 7, 1998.
655. Zhu Huaxin, "Provide Theoretical Support for China in the 21st Century--New Explorations in Reforms at the Chinese Academy of Social Science," Renmin ribao (People's Daily), September 18, 1998, 5, in FBIS-CHI-98-265, September 24, 1998.
656. Kathy Chen, "China to Test Waters of Political Reform," Wall Street Journal, July 27, 1998.
657. Fong Tak-ho, "Politburo Reshuffles Chinese Academy of Social Sciences," Hong Kong Standard, October 26, 1998, 6; translated FBIS-CHI-98-299. See also, "CPCCC Changes CASS Party Committee into Party Group," Zhongguo xinwen she, October 26, 1998, in FBIS-CHI-98-300.
658. Xiao Pu and Jiang Wenming, "Be A Good Forerunner of Great Military Reform--Military Scientific Research Undertakings Advance in a Pioneering Spirit Thanks to the Concern of Three Generations of the Party's Core Leadership," Beijing Xinhua Domestic Service, May 19, 1998, in FBIS-CHI-98-139, May 21, 1998. The article provides a history of AMS research under Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, and Jiang Zemin.
659. The East West Center in Honolulu published a study in 1996 on the rise of Chinese nationalism, the sole references of which were to "nationalistic" articles from this journal.
660. For example, see Wang Hui and Zhang Tianwei, "Wenhua pipan lilun yu dangdai Zhongguo minzu zhuyi wenti" (Cultural criticism theory and the issue of contemporary Chinese nationalism), Zhanlue yu guanli (Strategy and Management) 5, no. 4 (1994): 17-20; Xiao Gongqin, "Minzu zhuyi yu Zhongguo zhuanxing shiqi de yishixingtai" (Nationalism and the ideology of China's period of change), Zhanlue yu guanli (Strategy and Management) 5, no. 4 (1994): 21-25; and Dong Zhenghua, "Minzu zhuyi yu guojia liyi" (Nationalism and national interests), Zhanlue yu guanli (Strategy and Management) 5, no. 4 (1994): 26-27.
661. COSTIND is being restructured. See Harlan Jencks, "COSTIND is Dead, Long Live COSTIND! Restructuring China's Defense Scientific, Technical, and Industrial Sector," in The People's Liberation Army in the Information Age, eds. James C. Mulvenon and Richard H. Yang (Santa Monica, CA: The RAND Corporation, 1999), 59-77.
662. See China Today Defense Science and Technology (Beijing: National Defense Industry Press, 1993), vol. 1; and Mark Stokes, "China's Strategic Modernization," U.S. Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, forthcoming.
663. A restricted journal, Space Electronic Warfare, has been published for several years and is described in Mark Stokes.
664. The sole source on this matter seems to be Desmond Ball, "Signals Intelligence in China," Jane's Intelligence Review 7, no. 8 (August 1995): 365-370.
665. Nicholas Eftimiades, Chinese Intelligence Operations (Annapolis, MD: Naval Institute Press, 1994).