DATE=3/2/99 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT NUMBER=5-42752 TITLE=U-S FOREIGN POLICY BYLINE= ED WARNER DATELINE= WASHINGTON CONTENT= VOICED AT: INTRO: AS THE ONLY REMAINING SUPERPOWER, HOW MUCH RESPONSIBILITY DOES THE UNITED STATES HAVE FOR KEEPING ORDER IN THE WORLD AND HOW MUCH CAN IT DO? THESE QUESTIONS ARE NOW BEING VIGOROUSLY DEBATED AS THE UNITED STATES BECOMES INVOLVED IN A NUMBER OF CONFLICTS THAT HAVE NO EASY RESOLUTION. V-O-A'S ED WARNER REPORTS SOME OF THE DEBATE AND THE COMMENTS OF TWO LEADING STRATEGIC THINKERS. TEXT: U-S TROOPS ARE NOW INVOLVED IN MORE THAN 100 COUNTRIES, AND HAVE CONDUCTED MILITARY EXERCISES WITH NATIONS OF THE FORMER SOVIET UNION. AN EXPANDING NATO ADDS TO U-S COMMITMENTS, ALONG WITH PEACE-KEEPING EFFORTS IN BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA, KOSOVO AND ELSEWHERE. IN THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS, THE UNITED STATES HAS BOMBED THREE COUNTRIES -- IRAQ, SUDAN AND AFGHANISTAN -- AND THREATENED A FOURTH -- SERBIA. "WELCOME TO THE POST-COLD WAR WORLD," SAYS ELIOT COHEN, A PROFESSOR AT JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY WHO DIRECTED A U-S AIR FORCE STUDY OF THE PERSIAN GULF WAR. "THIS IS THE KIND OF IMPERIAL POLICING THAT THE AMERICAN MILITARY IS GOING INCREASINGLY TO BE CALLED ON TO DO." A NEW ERA CALLS FOR A NEW STRATEGY, SAYS RALPH PETERS, A RETIRED U-S ARMY OFFICER WHO SERVED IN VARIOUS PARTS OF THE DEVELOPING WORLD AND IS AUTHOR OF THE FORTHCOMING BOOK, "FIGHTING FOR THE FUTURE: WILL AMERICA TRIUMPH?" MR. PETERS SAYS MOST TROUBLE STARTS WITH A HARD CORE OF EVIL MEN WHO CAN QUICKLY BE STOPPED, IF THEY ARE CONFRONTED EARLY ENOUGH: /// FIRST PETERS ACT /// A FRACTION OF ONE PERCENT OF A NATION'S POPULATION CAN DESTROY A FRAGILE COUNTRY. LATER ON, OF COURSE, MORE ACTORS ARE INVOLVED -- THE UNEMPLOYED, NATIONALISTS. THE NUMBERS SNOWBALL. BUT AT THE CORE, THERE IS ALWAYS A SMALL GROUP OF VIOLENT ACTORS -- HITLER'S BROWNSHIRTS, FANATICS EVERYWHERE. AND IF YOU DO NOT RID THE SUBJECT COUNTRY OF THOSE FANATICS -- WHETHER BY IMPRISONING THEM, TRYING THEM OR KILLING THEM OR WHATEVER IT TAKES --YOU LEAVE THE CANCER TO FESTER. /// END ACT /// MR. PETERS SAYS PROMPT ACTION CAN SAVE A THREATENED SOCIETY FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF ITS LAW-ABIDING CITIZENS. TO DO THIS, SAYS MR. PETERS, MEANS MOVING BEYOND A STRICT DEFINITION OF THE U-S NATIONAL INTEREST IN PURSUIT OF A LARGER GOBAL INTEREST. HE IS NOT SUGGESTING THE UNITED STATES INTERVENE IN ALL CRISES. THEY MUST BE DETERMINED ON A CASE-BY-CASE BASIS: /// SECOND PETERS ACT /// SOMETIMES, CLEARLY GENOCIDE OR ACTS OF BARBARISM ARE SO HORRIFIC THAT WE MUST RESPOND BECAUSE IN THE END, WE ARE OUR BROTHER'S KEEPER[S]. THE PENTAGON WILL EVALUATE THESE CONFLICTS IN TERMS OF THE COST TO US INSTEAD OF THE COST TO GLOBAL SOCIETY. SOME CONFLICTS MAY BE MORE EXPENSIVE IN TERMS OF TREASURE AND LIVES TO FIX, TO SOLVE. BUT THEY ARE THE ONES THAT ARE WORTHWHILE. /// END ACT /// MR. PETERS SAYS AMERICANS WILL ACCEPT CASUALTIES IN A JUST CAUSE WITH CLEAR RESULTS. THEY WILL NOT TOLERATE LIVES WASTED IN VAIN. HE BELIEVES IT IS IN THE AMERICAN PSYCHOLOGY TO COME TO THE AID OF THE OPPRESSED. LIKE IT OR NOT, HE SAYS THE U-S MILITARY WILL CONTINUE TO ENGAGE IN SMALL WARS IN THE YEARS AHEAD. NATO COMMANDER GENERAL WESLEY CLARK SAYS "THERE IS A GREAT HUNGER FOR AMERICAN VALUES, IDEAS AND SECURITY. THEY [ -- PEOPLE OVERSEAS -- ] WANT TO SEE AMERICANS. THEY WANT TO BE TOUCHED BY AMERICANS." BUT HOW MUCH CAN AMERICA REALLY DO? ASKS ROBERT MANNING, DIRECTOR OF ASIAN STUDIES AT THE COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS. THERE ARE FINITE LIMITS TO NATIONAL WILL, ENERGY AND RESOURCES. HE THINKS THEY HAVE BEEN NOW BEEN REACHED. YET THERE ARE PROPOSALS TO STRETCH THEM EVEN FARTHER, PERHAPS INTO THE UNSTABLE REGIONS OF THE FORMER SOVIET UNION. THE UNITED STATES IS OVER-COMMITTED, SAYS MR. MANNING, BECAUSE IT LACKS A STRATEGY: /// FIRST MANNING ACT /// HERE WE ARE ALMOST A DECADE AFTER THE BERLIN WALL HAS FALLEN DOWN. DO WE HAVE ANY SENSE OF DIRECTION OF A NEW INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM? I GUESS MY ANSWER WOULD BE, "WE DO NOT." RATHER THAN STEPPING BACK AND TRYING TO HAVE A LARGER IDEA OF HOW THOSE PIECES FIT TOGETHER, WE ARE JUST SORT OF REACTING -- ONE MASSACRE, ONE CRISIS AT A TIME. /// END ACT /// MR. MANNING SAYS A TOP PRIORITY OF U-S FOREIGN POLICY SHOULD BE TO WORK IN CONCERT WITH THE OTHER MAJOR POWERS WHO MUST HELP MAINTAIN THE PEACE. BUT THEY FEEL INCREASINGLY NEGLECTED BY THE UNITED STATES. COLUMNIST FLORA LEWIS WRITES (IN THE INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE): "FOR THE FRENCH, THE UNITED STATES HAS BECOME THE 'HYPER-POWER,' DETERMINED TO TELL EVERYBODY ELSE WHAT TO DO." // OPT // MANY EUROPEANS ARE ESPECIALLY CRITICAL OF AMERICAN PRESSURE TO OPEN CAPITAL MARKETS, WHICH IN THEIR VIEW HAS LED TO EXCESSIVE CURRENCY SWINGS AND A GLOBAL ECONOMIC MELTDOWN. IN REACTION, EUROPEAN NATIONS ARE TURNING TO MULTILATERAL SOLUTIONS. // END OPT // U-S-RUSSIAN RELATIONS ARE EVEN MORE FRAYED, BECAUSE OF NATO EXPANSION AND SHARP POLICY DIFFERENCES OVER IRAQ AND KOSOVO. SAYS STEPHEN BLANK, A PROFESSOR AT THE STRATEGIC STUDIES INSTITUTE AT THE U-S ARMY WAR COLLEGE: "U-S OFFICIALS DANGEROUSLY MIS-READ RUSSIA. THEY THINK IT WILL BE LIKE POST-1945 GERMANY [ -- PEACEFUL AND DEMOCRATIC]. I THINK THEY ARE DEAD WRONG. WE ARE EXPANDING OUR SPHERE OF INFLUENCE AT THE EXPENSE OF THE RUSSIANS." ROBERT MANNING SAYS CURRENT U-S POLICY RISKS LOSING THE SUPPORT OF AMERICANS AS WELL: /// SECOND MANNING ACT /// THEY ARE PREPARED TO SEE US DO OUR FAIR SHARE. BUT THEY DO NOT WANT TO SEE US DO EVERYTHING, AND THEY WANT TO SEE OUR FRIENDS AND ALLIES DOING THEIR FAIR SHARE. THE DANGER IS WHEN WE KEEP MAKING LARGE INVESTMENTS IN PLACES THAT ARE MARGINAL TO OUR INTERESTS. I THINK OVER TIME YOU ARE GOING TO ERODE SUPPORT FOR AMERICAN INTERNATIONALISM. /// END ACT /// MR. MANNING SAYS THE UNITED STATES HAS THE GLOBAL RESPONSIBILITY OF THE ONLY SUPERPOWER. IT IS THE STABILIZER OF LAST RESORT. BUT BEFORE THAT POINT IS REACHED, HE SAYS OTHERS SHOULD SHARE THE BURDEN. (SIGNED) NEB/EW/WTW 02-Mar-99 7:55 PM EST (0055 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .