ACCESSION NUMBER:00000
FILE ID:96062704.txt
DATE:06/27/96
TITLE:27-06-96  BACKGROUNDER:  PRESIDENTIAL ADVISORY PANEL ON PROLIFERATION

TEXT:
(Time for greater restraint in export of armaments)  (840)
By Alexander M. Sullivan
USIA White House Correspondent

Washington -- With some conventional arms reaching the destructive
potential of nuclear weapons, a presidential advisory panel reports,
it's time for greater restraint in export of armaments.

Otherwise, the Presidential Advisory Board on Arms Proliferation
Policy warns, exporting nations could be providing aggressors the
means for killing their own troops.

Citing the Persian Gulf war, the panel notes that Iraq deployed "an
arsenal made up largely of weapons and technologies provided by the
industrialized countries." The report noted "the political will to
control the military technology trade was too weak" among supplier
nations. Unfortunately, the panel points out, even after the
experience of the Gulf War, "the predominant focus of policy
innovations has remained on nuclear, chemical, biological and missile
technologies."

That concentration, the panel says, overlooks the point that
"conventional weapons -- that is, those with destructive mechanisms
that are not nuclear, chemical or biological -- have in some cases
attained degrees of military effectiuveness thought in the past as
associated only with nuclear weapons."

Furthermore, some of these advanced weapons "can be used to deliver
weapons of mass destruction," the panel says. The panel says
conventional weapons have become exponentially more powerful because
of advances in gudiance systems and target acquisition.

The White House welcomed the report, even though the panel is mildly
critical of steps the Clinton Administration has taken to protect U.S.
domestic arms production industries through export sales. The panel's
conclusions nonetheless "support the central tenets of this
administration's conventional arms policy," Press Secretary Mike
McCurry said in a written statement.

McCurry argued that Clinton has already "taken major steps" to
restrain sales "that may be de-stabilizing or threatening to regional
peace," while establishing criteria for exports that "advance the
security of the United States, its friends and allies."

He said Clinton will study the report with an eye to considering the
panel's thinking as he "further develops" U.S. arms transfer policy.

The panel cited the extreme complexity of the arms issue, noting as
one example the difficulty of deciding if a weapon is offensive or
defensive in nature, concluding that a tank, for example, "could be
either, depending on the proclivities of the user." More troubling, it
said, the "diffuse character of the international technology market"
complicates the task of implementing international controls. The
report predicts a time in the near future when "all but a select
number of the most advanced techologies" will be exempt from control.

Unregulated proliferation of arms sales, it said, particularly in "the
more advanced forms" of weaponry, "can drastically undermine regional
stability and hence U.S. national security. By enhancing the
capability of potential adversaries, it can increase the risk to U.S.
military personnel in event of war."

The panel called for greater cooperatioon between the White House and
Congress and pointed out the "inherently trans-national character of
the arms market and the absence of consensus among governments ...
make it clear that efforts to elicit other countries' support should
be given highest priority."

Calling for small steps, the panel urged acceptance under the
Wassenaar Arrangement of greater transparency in arms sales, including
prior notification of transfers. The Wassenaar Arrangement binds 28
member-states to block sales to so-called pariah nations; it is the
follow-on to the CoCom list of proscribed military technologies.

The panel was assisted in its work by the Rand Corporation, a think
tank specializing in defense and security issues. Its accompanying
report notes that arms exports worldwide, because of the demise of the
Soviet Union and budget constraints in other nations, have dropped by
more than half since 1988, from $54,000 million to $22,000 million in
1993. While the average of U.S. sales is constant at $10,000 million
annually, the U.S. share of export sales has risen to almost half
because of the drop in overall demand.

The Rand study shows that the Middle East is the world's largest arms
importer, accounting for 43 per cent of the total in 1993. Saudi
Arabia, for example, purchased $76,000 million in arms between 1977
and 1994. Iran and Egypt follow in second and third place. Israel,
which reduced purchases between 1988 and 1991, appears "to be moving
upward" in imports, according to Rand.

European nations form the second largest bloc of arms importers, with
Western Europe now outstripping Central and Eastern European nations
in imports, most of which come from the United States. Central and
European nations are expected to continue obtaining weapons from
Russia in exchnage for debt relief.

Rand warned that improved economic and political conditions in South
Amerca may spur arms imports, particularly in Venezuela, Brazil,
Argentina and Chile. It points out that the new conditions cause
tension between the State Department, which wants to continue the
present policy of restraint in arms transfers, and the Pentagon, which
Rand said backs "loosening current constraints."
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