The ABM-72 Treaty, however, does not prohibit the development of systems to protect the territory of those countries against attack by less powerful missiles, for example those that were employed en masse by Iraq in the war with Kuwait. Representatives of the Clinton administration have been negotiating with Russia, as well as with Ukraine and Belarus, for a long time on which indicators should be used to delineate systems of defense that are created in accordance with the 1972 treaty from other systems for territorial anti-missile defense, the development of which the Republican majority in the American Senate has deemed to be extremely necessary for the security of the United States--particularly taking into account the existence of threats from countries with unstable political regimes. Moscow in turn was not long in declaring that if Washington were to begin the creation of too powerful a system of territorial anti-missile defense, it would be regarded as a violation of the 1972 ABM Treaty, with all of the negative consequences in both the diplomatic and the military realms.
The recent summit meeting between Moscow and Washington was expected to put an end to this issue. Those expectations were justified to a certain extent, taking into account the signing of the declaration of the principles for breakdown among systems of anti-missile defense, even though some observers regard this declaration as a concession to Moscow that makes it possible to restrict the technical capabilities of the new systems to the greatest extent. They can moreover be developed only with the consent of Moscow.
It is true that the declaration of principles for the breakdown of systems of anti-missile defense, as specialists note, will require technical refinement all the same. The Armed Forces of Russia and the United States are planning to conduct joint exercises pertaining to means of anti- missile defense for that very purpose in 1997; they are to verify the conformity of the American proposals for the creation of a new system of territorial defense using defensive missiles to the provisions of the 1972 ABM Treaty. The American Patriot anti-missile defensive system and the Russian S-300 anti-missile system are planned to be active in those exercises.
Specialists emphasize, however, that the exercises will be preceded by presidential elections in both countries, and the results of those could affect the attitude of both countries toward the requirements of the ABM Treaty. It should also be emphasized that any worsening of this issue could have an effect on Ukraine, where a series of missile-attack warning stations are working on Russian requirements since the signing of the treaty for a unified system of air defense for the CIS countries.