DATE=6/11/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=SYRIA FUTURE
NUMBER=5-46480
BYLINE=LISA BRYANT
DATELINE=CAIRO
CONTENT=

VOICED AT:


INTRO: After thirty years of relative stability under 
the late Hafez al-Assad, Syria now moves into a new 
and uncertain era.  Even if his son Bashar assumes 
power -- as his father apparently wished -- Arab 
analysts see troubled times ahead for Syria and for 
the Middle East peace.  From Cairo, Lisa Bryant 
reports.

TEXT:  Little is known about Bashar Assad, President 
Assad's 34-year-old son.  The man who trained and 
practiced as an eye doctor in England, suddenly found 
himself being groomed for the presidency in 1994, when 
his older brother, Basil, died in a car crash.  Like 
his father, Bashar Assad is a member of Syria's 
Alawite minority.

In recent months, the younger Assad has been given 
increasing political responsibility. He was reportedly 
behind recent changes in Syrian finance laws and a 
campaign to clean up political corruption.  The anti-
corruption sweep most recently targeted a former 
Syrian prime minister who reportedly committed suicide 
while under investigation.

Now Mr. Assad has been nominated for president by the 
Baath Party leadership.  Syria's parliament is 
expected to vote on his candidacy later this month. 
But Egyptian scholar Mohammed El Sayed Said is among 
several Arab analysts who believe a possible 
leadership transition in Syria, from father to son, 
will not go so smoothly.

            /// SAID ACT ///

      The old guard has generally objected to this, 
      given their own ambitions for power on the one 
      hand, and given the fact that this is a Republic 
      in the last instance -- not a monarchy. And 
      certainly, many will feel that the imposition is 
      a great step backward toward the monarchical 
      system, which Syrians have freed themselves from 
      a long time ago.

            /// END ACT ///

Mr. Said and other political experts believe that even 
if Bashar Assad becomes Syria's next president, he 
will have to face a number of tests. He will have to 
unify the Assad family - including President Assad's 
brother and one-time rival - behind him.  The younger 
Assad will also have to win the support of Syria's 
Alawites, along with the country's military and 
security branches.

Also unclear is the fate of Middle East peace 
negotiations.  Peace talks between Syria and Israel 
were suspended in January, after President Assad held 
out for Israel's full withdrawal from the Golan 
Heights.

President Clinton had been hoping to seal a Middle 
East peace agreement before leaving office.  But 
Mohammed Sid Ahmed, a columnist for Egypt's leading Al 
Ahram newspaper, says the next Syrian leader is likely 
to first focus on domestic matters.

            /// SID AHMED ACT ///

      There can be a power struggle ahead and I think 
      that's why Syria will be totally devoted to the 
      internal situation for at least for the few 
      weeks - (a time when President) Clinton is still 
      able to do something. Which means that this 
      probably undermines definitely the assumption 
      that a peace arrangement in the Middle East 
      could be achieved under Clinton.

            /// END ACT ///

But some scholars also hope that a new leader in Syria 
will inject momentum into the peace process.  Tahsin 
Bashir, who served as spokesman to the late Egyptian 
President Anwar Sadat, says the future of Syrian-
Israeli peace talks also depends on Israel's next 
move.

            /// BASHIR ACT ///

      The test of what Syria will do in the peace 
      process will depend more on Israel. If Israel is 
      generous and willing to offer Bashar a better 
      deal than the meticulous, stringent conditions 
      they asked his father to do, he will be able to 
      reach an accommodation and a settlement with 
      Syria.

            /// END ACT ///

If Bashar Assad comes to power, Syria will follow the 
footsteps of Jordan and Morocco where, in the past 
year and a half, young, Western-educated sons have 
assumed power.  The leadership transitions in both 
countries appear to have been remarkably smooth.  The 
new young monarchs have not strayed far from the 
political paths set by their fathers.

Several Arab scholars say they do not expect immediate 
political changes in Syria either, if Bashar Assad 
becomes president. But, they and others are hoping the 
country's next leader will ultimately craft a more 
modern and less repressive political system than the 
one under President Assad. (Signed)

NEB/EB/DW/KL



11-Jun-2000 15:00 PM EDT (11-Jun-2000 1900 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.