DATE=12/15/1999
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=RUSSIA ELECTION OVERVIEW
NUMBER=5-45001
BYLINE=PETER HEINLEIN
DATELINE=MOSCOW
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:

INTRO:  More than 100-million Russians are eligible to 
vote in Sunday's election for a new parliament.  
Officials are now predicting a turnout as low as 50-
percent.  V-O-A Moscow correspondent Peter Heinlein 
reports the election has lost much of the significance 
it was expected to have when the campaign first began.

TEXT:  There is an old saying among Moscow political 
observers that a week is a long time in Russian 
politics.  If so, four months can seem like an 
eternity.

As the country heads into the final days of a 
lackluster parliamentary election campaign, it is 
worth recalling that, four months ago, the vote was 
being touted as an unofficial presidential primary.

With an ailing and unpopular President Boris Yeltsin 
out of the running, the Kremlin seemed in disarray.  A 
newly-formed anti-Kremlin coalition, linking former 
Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov and the powerful 
mayors of Russia's two largest cities, was seen as a 
sure bet to become the largest bloc in parliament, 
propelling its candidate into the favorite's role for 
next year's presidential election.  There he would 
likely run against Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov.

The only question was whether that candidate would be 
Mr. Primakov or Moscow's ambitious mayor, Yuri 
Luzhkov.

The prospect of an orderly hand-over of power from 
Russia's first democratically-elected president to his 
democratically-elected successor was hailed as a 
healthy sign of the development of political parties 
in this formerly one-party state.

But that was four months ago.  In the intervening 
months, the Kremlin launched a popular war in 
Chechnya.  The war's main architect, Prime Minister 
Vladimir Putin, has shot to the top of the 
presidential preference polls, and a pro-Kremlin 
party, with Mr. Putin's support, has come from nowhere 
to rival the Communists.

The Fatherland/All Russia bloc, meanwhile, under a 
withering barrage of criticism from the Kremlin-
controlled media, has seen its popularity shrink to 
single digits, far behind the leading contenders.

Political analyst Nikolai Petrov of the Moscow 
Carnegie Center says the Kremlin has used the Chechen 
war and the media as tools in a cynical strategy to 
destroy its political enemies and maintain its 
stranglehold on power.

               /// 1st PETROV ACT ///

      It seems to me that all this chain of tragic 
      events, starting with the conflict in Dagestan 
      and bombings in Moscow in the beginning of the 
      Chechen war, is exactly what was used by the 
      Kremlin to reshape totally the political 
      landscape in order to push away Mr. Primakov and 
      some other political forces in order to keep the 
      power.

                 /// END ACT ///

Mr. Petrov says a dangerous process has been unleashed 
in Russia, in which military and intelligence officers 
are pushing aside legitimate political leaders in the 
struggle for power.

               /// 2ND PETROV ACT ///

      Thus we are facing a very dangerous new 
      situation [in] that the role of the military in 
      society is increasing all the time, and the 
      respect to [for] the law, the respect to the 
      elections, the respect to the politicians is 
      declining all the time.

                 /// END ACT ///

// OPT //  A random sampling of public opinion on the 
streets of Moscow this week indicated an almost 
universal skepticism about the elections.  Many 
people, like 51-year-old biologist Vyacheslav 
Kalentchuk, say they see little point in voting.

   /// KALENTCHUK ACT IN RUSSIAN, THEN FADE TO... ///

He says, "I think everybody is so tired of everything 
connected with politics that nobody will be eager to 
run out and vote."

Thirty-one-year-old public prosecutor Dmitry Khormach 
says no one believes the elections will make any 
difference.

   /// KHORMACH ACT IN RUSSIAN, THEN FADE TO... ///

He says, "Those who have power will stay there, and 
any newcomers will simply become like the old ones."

            /// END ACT ///   /// END OPT ///

If opinion polls are accurate, Russia's next 
parliament will look very much like the old one, 
dominated by Communists and nationalists, while hopes 
for a blossoming of a Western-style democracy remain a 
distant dream.   (Signed)

NEB/PFH/GE/WTW



15-Dec-1999 13:14 PM EDT (15-Dec-1999 1814 UTC)
NNNN

Source: Voice of America
.