DATE=1/13/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=LIBYA / BRITAIN
NUMBER=5-45228
BYLINE=ANDRE DE NESNERA
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:


INTRO:  Earlier this week, British customs agents at 
London's Gatwick airport confirmed they seized crates 
containing missile parts bound for Libya.  National 
Security correspondent Andre de Nesnera looks at the 
military and diplomatic ramifications of the seizure.

TEXT:  British customs agents confiscated 32 crates 
containing components for a short-range ballistic 
missile of the "Scud" type.  The crates were labeled 
"automotive parts" and were on a British Airways 
flight bound first for Malta, then Tripoli, Libya.

The agents seized the crates November 24th.  They 
confirmed their operation after details were leaked 
last week to the "Sunday Times" of London.  The 
newspaper said the shipment came from a knitwear 
company in Taiwan.  Experts believe Taiwan was not the 
point of origin - only a stopover.  It is known that 
previously, Libya has received medium-range missiles 
from North Korea.

Paul Beaver - senior analyst with the British 
Publication "Jane's Defense Weekly" - says the Soviet 
Unions' collapse ended the Libyan military's 
traditional arms supplier.  And it has been looking 
for other sources.

            /// BEAVER ACT ///

      The Libyan armed forces have been neglected for 
      the last decade.  They have a small number of 
      MiG fighter aircraft.  They have some "Scud" 
      missiles.  They may well have some sort of 
      chemical warfare capability that they have been 
      developing, perhaps with money from Saddam 
      Hussein in the late 1980's.  We are not quite 
      sure.  But we know they have got some missiles.  
      They fired some at Italy about a decade ago.  
      They only hit an off-shore island - but at least 
      they hit the island and it did not get into the 
      water, which means they have some technical 
      capability.

            /// END ACT //

Mr. Beaver says Libya is known to have "Scud" missiles 
capable of hitting targets 300 to 500 kilometers away.  
But he believes the parts seized at Gatwick Airport 
were components for a fairly long-range "Scud" 
missile.

            /// BEAVER ACT ///

      We think that these were probably components for 
      something that is called "Scud-Charlie," which 
      has a range of a little over 900 kilometers, 
      which would put Naples in range.  Not quite Rome 
      - no (European) capital cities could be 
      targeted.  But of course the Americans have a 
      Sixth fleet (Navy) base in Naples and Sigonella, 
      on Sicily, as well.  So there could be some sort 
      of threat posed there, and this may well be why 
      Libya feels it needs these weapons in some sort 
      of bargaining chip.

            /// END ACT ///

The British defense expert says the "Scud-Charlie" may 
be armed with warheads carrying biological, chemical 
or even nuclear weapons.

Rupert Allason, an intelligence expert, says the 
operation at Gatwick was the consequence of months of 
cooperation involving many intelligence agencies, 
including the C-I-A.  He says the fact that Libya 
tried to smuggle in missile parts is an ominous sign.

            /// ALLASON ACT ///

      Colonel Gaddafi's regime is not threatened by 
      any significant exterior or external opposition 
      force.  He has no hostile neighbors.  Certainly 
      a war was fought down in the south against Chad 
      some years ago.  But this kind of weapon is a 
      weapon of aggression and I would think that it 
      would be of considerable concern not just to 
      Libya's neighbors, but perhaps to the countries 
      that have regarded Colonel Gaddafi in the past 
      as being a sponsor of terrorism.

            /// END ACT ///

Last year, Libya renounced terrorism and surrendered 
for trial two suspects in the bombing of a U-S 
jetliner over Lockerbie, Scotland.  That prompted the 
United Nations to lift most of its sanctions against 
Libya - though an arms embargo still remains in 
effect.

There is also an international prohibition against 
selling Tripoli so-called "dual-use technology" that 
could serve civilian or military purposes.

Analysts say the timing of the disclosure on Libya's 
attempt to gain missile parts is significant.  Colonel 
Gaddafi is trying to better relations with the 
European Union at a time when the E-U is eager to do 
business with Libya.  Last month, European Union 
President Romano Prodi invited Colonel Gaddafi to 
Brussels.  That visit may now be on hold.

In addition, Britain just recently re-established 
diplomatic relations with Tripoli after a 15-year 
hiatus, following in the footsteps of France and 
Italy.  Experts say the Gatwick disclosure is expected 
to cool relations between London and Tripoli. (Signed)

NEB/ADEN/JP




13-Jan-2000 11:17 AM EDT (13-Jan-2000 1617 UTC)
NNNN

Source: Voice of America
.