DATE=11/24/1999
TYPE=INTERVIEW
TITLE=IRAQ OIL EXPORTS
NUMBER=2-256500
BYLINE=MAHMOUD ZAWAWI
DATELINE=AMMAN
CONTENT=

VOICED AT:


INTRO:  Mahmoud Zawawi of Voice of America in Amman 
interviewed Dr. Walid Khadduri, Executive Editor of 
the Middle East Economic Survey about Iraq's oil 
exports.


TEXT:  

Mahmoud Zawawi - Dr. Khadduri, do you expect Iraq's 
recent decision to suspend its oil exports to affect 
the present oil cuts by OPEC and other producers.

Dr. Walid Khadduri - I think we have to wait on this 
issue because the Security Council Resolution is of 
limited duration.  It ends on December Fourth and I 
think OPEC will stay put and not take any decision 
during this period and the period following that , 
waiting to see market reaction.  So, I think the OPEC 
production cut agreement will continue irrespective of 
the resolution approved by the Security Council.

Mahmoud Zawawi - Dr. Khadduri most oil producers are 
in favor of extending the oil cuts agreement when it 
expires next March.  What is your view on the 
situation.

Dr. Walid Khadduri - While most OPEC ministers have 
announced that they would like to see the agreement 
extended beyond March, I think one was to wait.  Its 
premature to really announce a decision now.  They are 
expressing their opinions and the reason they are 
saying that is because they are worried about the 
second quarter when demand usually is less than it is 
in the first quarter.   I think one has to wait for 
market developments in the winter, and the level of 
the stocks by the end of March and what is the level 
of demand at the time of the meeting at the end of 
March.   I think its premature to really make a 
judgement.

Mahmoud Zawawi - Do you expect to present cooperation 
among OPEC and non-OPEC members to continue in the 
future.

Dr. Walid Khaddini - All indications are that the 
present cooperation is going to continue for the 
simple reason that oil producers have benefitted a 
lot.  Don't forget that with a seven percent cut (in 
production) for most of the OPEC countries they 
realized an increase in revenue of around 120 or 130 
percent within about a year.   That is a very 
significant development so I think they would like to 
keep to the agreement.  The problem is if prices get 
out of hand (increase wildly) during the next few 
weeks, then some countries may rethink their position 
or maybe they would put more crude on the market.  
Once again these are possibilities, I am not saying 
they will happen.   Precedents have shown this could 
happen.  We have to watch the winter carefully to see 
what would happen.

NEB/MZ/PLM


NEB/WTW/ 



24-Nov-1999 06:22 AM EDT (24-Nov-1999 1122 UTC)
NNNN

Source: Voice of America
.