DATE=  11/18/97

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

NUMBER=5-38114

TITLE=IRAQ AND IRAN

BYLINE=FRANK RONALDS

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

CONTENT=

VOICED AT: 



INTRO:  AS TENSIONS AGAIN RISE IN THE GULF REGION, OBSERVERS ARE 

QUESTIONING THE IMPACT ON IRAN OF POSSIBLE U-S MILITARY ACTION 

AGAINST IRAQ.  IN EXAMINING THAT QUESTION, V-O-A'S FRANK RONALDS 

ALSO ASKS WHETHER IT MAKE SENSE TO ASK RUSSIAN HELP TO MEDIATE IN

BAGHDAD, WHILE MOSCOW IS REPORTEDLY HELPING TEHRAN WITH MISSILE 

TECHNOLOGY.



TEXT:  RICHARD PIPES SAYS IT IS IRONIC RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER 

YEVGENY PRIMAKOV HAS BEEN ASKED TO PUT PRESSURE ON SADDAM 

HUSSEIN, IN LIGHT OF RUSSIA'S WIDENING ECONOMIC TIES WITH IRAN 

AND EVIDENCE MOSCOW IS SUPPLYING IRAN WITH MISSILE BUILDING 

TECHNOLOGY.  BUT HE SAYS, RUSSIA IS THREATENED BY THE IRAQI 

DICTATOR'S EFFORTS TO HIDE WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, JUST AS 

MANY OTHER COUNTRIES ARE.  



HARVARD UNIVERSITY PROFESSOR OF RUSSIAN HISTORY RICHARD PIPES HAS

ALSO SERVED ON THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL IN THE WHITE HOUSE 

AND IS A SPECIALIST ON INTELLIGENCE MATTERS.



                       // IST PIPES ACT //



         IT SEEMS TO ME THAT YOU ALWAYS HAVE TO DEAL WITH FIRST 

         THINGS FIRST.  AND TO ME, THE FIRST AND FOREMOST THING 

         IS THE MORTAL DANGER WHICH IS PRESENTED BY SADDAM 

         HUSSEIN'S CLANDESTINE PROGRAM WHICH CONCENTRATES ON 

         NUCLEAR WEAPONS, ON CHEMICAL WARFARE AND ON BIOLOGICAL 

         WARFARE.  THIS PRESENTS A MORTAL DANGER TO MANY 

         COUNTRIES AND I THINK THIS HAS TO BE DEALT WITH PROMPTLY

         AND DECISIVELY.  THESE STOCKPILES AND RESEARCH LABS AND 

         SO ON SHOULD BE DESTROYED, NO MATTER WHAT THE POLITICAL 

         OR DIPLOMATIC CONSEQUENCES ARE.  AS FAR AS IRAN IS 

         CONCERNED, THIS IS A MORE LONG TERM PROBLEM.  AND I 

         THINK WE ALSO SHOULD PUT PRESSURE ON RUSSIA BUT I WOULD 

         NOT CONSIDER IT ON THE SAME LEVEL OF DANGER AS THAT 

         PRESENTED BY IRAQ.



                          // END ACT //



ON THE OTHER HAND, PROFESSOR PIPES SAYS THE UNITED NATIONS AND 

ESPECIALLY THE UNITED STATES, SHOULD NOT ACCEPT A COMPROMISE 

WHICH DOES NOT ASSURE THE DESTRUCTION OF THESE WEAPONS OF MASS 

DESTRUCTION.  HE SAYS IT IS NOT ENOUGH FOR BAGHDAD SIMPLY TO 

ACCEPT THE TIGHTENED SANCTIONS RECENTLY VOTED BY THE U-N SECURITY

COUNCIL.



                       // 2ND PIPES ACT //



         NOT ONLY ACCEPT THE TIGHTENED SANCTIONS, BUT ACCEPT THE 

         INSPECTION TEAMS, INCLUDING THE AMERICAN REPRESENTATIVES

         ON IT.  AND NOT PREVENT THEM FROM SEEING VARIOUS SITES 

         WHICH IT IS THEIR DUTY TO SEE.  THEY HAVE TO REALLY OPEN

         UP, THE WAY THAT HAVE NOT FOR THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS.  

         IN A VARIETY OF WAYS THEY WERE HARASSING THE INSPECTORS 

         AND CLOSING SITES OR REMOVING ITEMS FROM THE SITES.  

         THIS IS SCANDALOUS.  THIS SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED.  THIS 

         IS A DEADLY GAMES.  WE ARE NOT TALKING ABOUT NATIONAL 

         PRESTIGE.  WE ARE TALKING ABOUT WEAPONS THAT ARE CAPABLE

         OF DESTROYING HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS, IF NOT MILLIONS OF 

         HUMAN BEINGS.  NEVER MIND WHAT THE CONSEQUENCES ARE, I 

         THINK THEY SHOULD COMPLY 100-PERCENT.



                          // END ACT //



PROFESSOR PIPES SAYS IF BAGHDAD DOES NOT COMPLY COMPLETELY, THE 

UNITED STATES SHOULD USE WHATEVER POWER IT REQUIRES TO DESTROY 

THE SITES, AND ALSO TO HIT SADDAM HUSSEIN'S REPUBLICAN GUARDS, 

WHO PROTECT THE SITES AS WELL AS THE REGIME.  



TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION IRAN'S EIGHT-YEAR-LONG WAR WITH IRAQ, 

ENDING IN 1988, MIGHT A WEAKENED IRAQ INVITE AGGRESSION FROM 

TEHERAN?  PROFESSOR PIPES THINKS NOT.



                       // 3RD PIPES ACT //



         EXPERIENCE INDICATES THAT IF YOU ACT VERY VIGOROUSLY IN 

         DEFENSE OF A JUST CAUSE, THIS IS A VERY POWERFUL 

         INFLUENCE ON EVERYBODY ELSE WHO MAY WANT TO TAKE A 

         DANGEROUS COURSE OF ACTION.  AND I SHOULD THINK THAT IF 

         THIS WERE DONE IN REGARDS TO IRAQ, IRAN WOULD TAKE HEED.

         IN RUSSIA, I DO NOT THINK THIS WOULD BE A VERY MAJOR 

         ISSUE.  IT IS NOT SOMETHING THAT CONCERNS THEM DIRECTLY.

         IT IS NOT AN ISSUE THAT AGITATES PUBLIC OPINION.  SO I 

         DO NOT THINK THERE IS ANY DANGER OF A SPLIT WITH RUSSIA 

         ON THIS.



                          // END ACT //



THE RUSSIAN DUMA, THE LOWER HOUSE OF PARLIAMENT, HAS VOTED 

AGAINST USING MILITARY FORCE TO COMPEL SADDAM HUSSEIN TO COMPLY 

WITH U-N SANCTIONS.  BUT PROFESSOR PIPES THINKS THE DUMA VOTE 

SHOULD BE IGNORED IF THE IRAQI DICTATOR DOES NOT COMPLY FULLY.  

(SIGNED)



NEB/RAE



18-Nov-97 11:26 AM EST (1626 UTC)

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Source: Voice of America

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