DATE= 11/20/97
TYPE=WORLD OPINION ROUNDUP
NUMBER=6-10453
TITLE=POSSIBLE DEAL WITH IRAQ
BYLINE=ANDREW N. GUTHRIE
TELEPHONE=619-3335
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
EDITOR=ASSIGNMENTS
CONTENT=
INTRO: THE LATEST MEETING ON THE IRAQ CRISIS CONCERNING U-N
WEAPONS INSPECTIONS TOOK PLACE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
NIGHT IN GENEVA, BUT EUROPEAN AND ASIAN NEWS MEDIA
ORGANIZATIONS HAVE BEEN QUICK TO COMMENT ON THE PROPOSED
SOLUTION THAT CAME OUT OF IT.
WE GET SOME EARLY REACTION NOW FROM
_____________________ IN THIS WEEK'S WORLD OPINION
ROUNDUP.
TEXT: THE GOVERNMENT OF IRAQ SAYS IT WILL ALLOW THE RETURN OF
ALL UNITED NATIONS WEAPONS INSPECTORS UNDER A RUSSIAN
PROPOSAL TO RESOLVE THE TWO-WEEK OLD STAND-OFF WITH THE
UNITED NATIONS. IN A JOINT STATEMENT WITH RUSSIAN
OFFICIALS, IRAQ SAYS THE INSPECTORS WILL BE ABLE TO
RESUME NORMAL ACTIVITIES IMMEDIATELY AND WITHOUT
CONDITIONS.
IN RETURN, RUSSIA HAS PROMISED TO WORK FOR A SPEEDY END
TO THE U-N ECONOMIC SANCTIONS IMPOSED ON IRAQ AFTER THE
GULF WAR. BOTH THE UNITED STATES AND BRITAIN SAY NO
DEALS OR CONCESSIONS WERE MADE TO GET IRAQ TO BACK DOWN
ON THE INSPECTION ISSUE.
THE AGREEMENT WAS ANNOUNCED AFTER AN UNUSUAL,
MIDDLE-OF-THE NIGHT MEETING WITH THE PRINCIPALS AND
SECRETARY OF STATE MADELEINE ALBRIGHT IN GENEVA.
ALTHOUGH WORD OF THE AGREEMENT BROKE TOO LATE FOR
REACTION FROM ALMOST ALL U-S PAPERS (EXCEPT "USA TODAY"
SEE: U-S EDITORIAL DIGEST) THE PRESS IN OTHER PARTS OF
THE WORLD HAD TIME TO RESPOND. WE BEGIN OUR SAMPLING IN
EGYPT WITH THE FAMED "AL-AHRAM, WHERE COLUMNIST MOUJRSI
ATTALLAH WRITES:
VOICE: SADDAM'S BET WAS THAT THE CRISIS WOULD LEAD TO OPEN
DIALOGUE WITH WASHINGTON -- THIS WOULD BE A POLITICAL
VICTORY FOR BAGHDAD -- OR THAT THE CRISIS WOULD LEAD TO
LIMITED MILITARY CONFRONTATION IN WHICH ISRAEL COULD GET
INVOLVED. THIS TOO WOULD BE A POLITICAL VICTORY FOR
BAGHDAD, SINCE IT WOULD OPEN THE GATES OF THE ARAB
COUNTRIES FOR SADDAM, ESPECIALLY WITH THE INCREASING
ARAB ANGER FROM [ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER BENJAMIN]
NETANYAHU'S POLICIES WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY THE U-S. ON
THE OTHER SIDE WASHINGTON'S BET WAS THAT ESCALATING THE
SITUATION WITH IRAQ GIVES IT A NEW CHANGE TO EXHIBIT ITS
FORCE -- NOT WITH THE PURPOSE OF GIVING IRAQ A LESSON
BUT WITH THE AIM OF SENDING A MESSAGE TO IRAN.
TEXT: IN ISRAEL, AT LEAST ONE DAILY WAS NOT VERY PLEASED WITH
THE AGREEMENT. "MAARIV'S" HEADLINE READS: "A COMPROMISE
COULD BRING HAVOC IN THE LONG TERM."
VOICE: IT CAN BE ASSESSED THAT THE CHANCES FOR A COMPROMISE ARE
GREATER THAN THOSE FOR A NEW WAR IN THE GULF. AT THIS
STAGE EUROPE DOES NOT SEEM ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT JOINING
THE U-S STRUGGLE AGAINST SADDAM AND TO SEND
EXPEDITIONARY FORCES... SADDAM CAN ALSO BE TRUSTED TO
WALK THE TIGHTROPE WHICH WILL ALLOW HIM TO SQUEEZE
EVERYTHING HE CAN OUT OF THE WESTERN WORLD'S MUDDLED
RESPONSE. A COMPROMISE ... COULD HAVE THE FOLLOWING
IMPLICATIONS: SADDAM WILL GET STRONGER BOTH WITHIN IRAQ
AND IN THE ARAB WORLD ... THE MONITORING ... COULD GET
WEAKER ... AS TO THE WEST'S WILL TO OUST HIM, SADDAM
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE LEAVING THIS WORLD, NEITHER BY WAY
OF A GENERALS' COUP NOR BY FOREIGN INTERVENTION ... FOR
THOSE TO WHOM A NEW PEACEFUL MIDDLE EAST IS DEAR, THIS
IS A GRIM PICTURE.
TEXT: FOR SAUDI ARABIAN COMMENT, WE TURN TO 'AL-RIYADH" IN THE
CAPITOL RIYADH, WHICH SEES THIS COMPROMISE AS A FURTHER
INDICATION OF AMERICA'S WANING INFLUENCE IN THE REGION.
VOICE: [AMERICA'S POLICY] IS LOSING ITS CREDIBILITY AND
CLARITY, A FACT DEMONSTRATED BY [SECRETARY OF STATE
ALBRIGHT'S VISIT AND HER 'LESS-THAN-NORMAL' PROPOSALS ON
THE PEACE PROCESS, THE IRAQI CRISIS AND THE DOHA
CONFERENCE, POSITIONS WHICH SHOW THAT AMERICA NEEDS TO
CORRECT OR REVIEW ITS ROLE IN THE REGION. IT IS CORRECT
FOR EACH STATE TO HAVE ITS OWN POLICIES AND STYLE AND
THE MEANS TO ACHIEVE ITS INTEREST BUT (AMERICA'S
POLICIES, WITH A LARGE GAP) BETWEEN JUSTICE AND BIAS,
MAKE THE ARAB STATES, EVEN THOSE FRIENDLY TO AMERICA,
NOT CONSIDER AMERICA'S GOOD INTENTIONS ...(OWING TO
ITS) COMPLETE BIAS IN FAVOR OF ISRAEL."
TEXT: IN ONE OTHER SAUDI DAILY, "AL-JAZIRA" THERE IS THIS
OPTIMISTIC VIEW.
VOICE: IT IS HOPED THAT THE UNITED NATIONS WILL ACCEPT THE
RUSSIAN PROPOSAL AND BE CONVINCED THAT THE IRAQI REGIME
WILL RETURN ...TO ITS CURRENT SITUATION AND ALLOW U-N
INSPECTORS TO RESUME THEIR WORK ...BECAUSE A MILITARY
ATTACK ON IRAQ WILL ONLY HARM THE IRAQI PEOPLE AND ITS
INSTITUTIONS, SOCIAL LIFE AND INFRASTRUCTURE, NOT THE
IRAQI REGIME.
TEXT: IN A FRONT PAGE ARTICLE IN THURSDAY'S [11/20]
"IZEVESTIA," FROM MOSCOW, THE LARGE RUSSIAN DAILY WAS
PLEASED WITH ITS GOVERNMENT'S FOREIGN POLICY SUCCESS.
VOICE: SADDAM HUSSEIN WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE THE LIGHT AT
THE END OF A TUNNEL [THAT IS THE FINAL, ULTIMATE LIFTING
OF THE SANCTIONS] IF HE ACCEPTS MOSCOW'S PROPOSALS. IT
WAS CLEAR THAT THE IRAQIS, GENERALLY, WERE WILLING TO DO
SO EVEN BEFORE TAREQ AZIZ ARRIVED IN MOSCOW ... MOSCOW'S
INITIATIVE HAS MET WITH SUPPORT IN THE WHITE HOUSE. THE
AMERICANS WANT OUT OF THE STANDOFF WITHOUT HAVING TO USE
FORCE.
TEXT: EQUALLY PLEASED WAS ALEKSANDR SHUMILIN, COLUMNIST IN THE
RUSSIAN BUSINESS-ORIENTED DAILY "KOMMJERSANT DAILY," WHO
WRITES:
VOICE: THE IRAQ CRISIS HAS OFFERED RUSSIA A CHANCE TO
DEMONSTRATE HER STATUS AS A GREAT POWER. WITH
WASHINGTON AND BAGHDAD IN A DEADLOCK, THE FORMER IS
CLEARLY NOT INTERESTED IN USING FORCE. RUSSIA MAY
HELP THE ANTAGONISTS GET OUT OF THE CRISIS WITH A
MINIMAL DAMAGE TO THEIR IMAGES.
TEXT: FOR WESTERN EUROPEAN REACTION, WE GET THIS COMMENT FROM
"EUROPE ONE RADIO" IN FRANCE, WHERE ALAIN DUHAMEL
CAUTIOUSLY NOTED:
VOICE: TODAY'S DIPLOMATIC OPTION APPEARS MORE CREDIBLE WHILE
STILL NOT FULLY BELIEVABLE ... WHAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT
IT SEEKS TO GAVE FACE FOR ALL ... IN THIS CRISIS FRANCE
HAS DISTANCED ITSELF FROM THE U-S POSITION, AND WHILE IT
WAS RIGHT TO DO SO, IT DID NOT NECESSARILY GO ABOUT IT
IN THE RIGHT WAY.
TEXT: ECHOING SENTIMENTS FOUND IN THURSDAY'S [11/20] "USA
TODAY" ABOUT THE DANGERS OF LETTING ARABIST RUSSIAN
FOREIGN MINISTER YEVGENY PRIMAKOV ORCHESTRATE THE DEAL,
IS MUNICH'S "SUEDDEUTSCHE ZEITUNG," FROM WHOM WE GET
THIS GERMAN REACTION.
VOICE: "[USING [MR.] PRIMAKOV] ... COULD TURN OUT TO BE
[PRESIDENT] CLINTON'S BIGGEST MISTAKE, WHO, SO FAR, DID
NOT MAKE ANY BIG BLUNDERS IN THE FOREIGN POLICY ARENA
...[MR. PRIMAKOV'S] UNDERLYING MOTIVE IS AS CLEAR AS IN
1990-91 WHEN HE WAS [PRESIDENT] GORBACHEV'S CHIEF
NEGOTIATOR TO PREVENT A WAR WITH SADDAM HUSSEIN. ...
NOW THERE IS A GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY TO REINSTALL ...
RUSSIA'S INFLUENCE BY OFFERING IRAQ ITS PROTECTION AND
OFFERING TO BE THE NEGOTIATOR...
TEXT: IN ITALY, ANOTHER VIEW OF THE PRIMAKOV CONNECTION FROM
MILAN'S "IL SOLE-25-ORE."
VOICE: RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER PRIMAKOV'S CURRICULUM [AGAIN,
PERHAPS THEY MEAN "PHILOSOPHY" OR "MIND-SET"] IS SO FULL
OF (COLD WAR) MEMORIES THAT HIS MEDIATION IN THE IRAQI
CRISIS COULD BE MISINTERPRETED, SEEN AS AIMED AT
DIVIDING THE WESTERN FRONT AND PUTTING THE ARAB WORLD
AGAINST THE U-S-ISRAEL AXIS AS IN THE PAST: I.E., AT
MAKING RUSSIA COUNT AGAIN SO THAT IT CAN AGAIN CONSIDER
ITSELF A SUPERPOWER. THERE IS CERTAINLY SOME OF THE
ABOVE IN PRIMAKOV'S MISSION, SINCE THE (RUSSIAN) BEAR
NEVER GIVES UP ITS BAD HABITS ...BUT THERE IS MOST OF
ALL SOMETHING NEW IN [MR.] PRIMAKOV'S MISSION. RUSSIA
IS NOT TRYING THIS MEDIATION AGAINST, BUT W I T H
THE UNITED STATES ...AND THIS WILL AFFECT WORLD PEACE
MUCH MORE THAN SADDAM HUSSEIN OR WHAT CHINA INTENDS TO
DO.
TEXT: ON THAT NOTE, WE CONCLUDE THIS EARLY REACTION FROM THE
WORLD PRESS TO THE AGREEMENT MEDIATED BY RUSSIA,
APPARENTLY PUTTING AN END TO THE CONFRONTATION BETWEEN
THE U-S, THE UNITED NATIONS AND IRAQ OVER WEAPONS
INSPECTION.
NEB/AEG/RAE
20-Nov-97 12:23 PM EST (1723 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
.