WASHINGTON NOTES TEHRAN'S REGIONAL ROLE. Washington has
signaled its recognition of Tehran's potential importance in solving
regional problems even though the Bush administration has made it
clear that it does not plan to make any fundamental policy decisions
until after the June presidential election in Iran.
One signal was seen in early April in Key West, when U.S.
Ambassador Carey Cavanaugh said that Iran is an important country in
the region and it would be kept informed about the progress of the
Minsk Group talks. Consisting of the U.S., Russia, and France, the
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's Minsk Group is
trying to settle the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, an Armenian-
occupied enclave in Azerbaijan. Armenia and Azerbaijan have been in
conflict over Karabakh since 1988, and the resulting six-year war
caused about 35,000 deaths and drove about 800,000 people from their
homes.
The "Tehran Times" took note of Cavanaugh's statement on 10
April but did not comment on it. The next day, the press secretary of
the Iranian Embassy in Baku said that Tehran may consult with Yerevan
and Baku about this subject. Unidentified sources told Baku's "525
Gazet" that consultations with Iran should not be interpreted as
Azerbaijani approval of Iran as a mediator. On the other hand,
Armenian President Robert Kocharian later emphasized that "Iran's
involvement in the Karabakh settlement process is the result of [his]
own efforts and efforts by the Armenian side in general," Yerevan
state television reported on 19 April. Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal
Kharrazi subsequently exchanged views about Karabakh with Russian
Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov, IRNA reported on 19 April.
Iran is also assuming a greater role in U.S. dealings with
Iraq. Ayatollah Baqir al-Hakim, chairman of the Tehran-based Supreme
Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), indicated in an
early April interview that he would be willing to have his
organization engage in dialogue with the U.S. Until now, the
predominantly Shia SCIRI has opposed a U.S. role in the Iraqi
opposition due to previous bad experiences and because of the Iranian
role in the organization. Also, Washington has been wary of the
Iranian influence over the SCIRI.
Al-Hakim met with Saudi Interior Minister Prince Nayef Bin Abd
al-Aziz during the latter's mid-April visit to Tehran. Although there
is no information on the substance of their talks, it is not
inconceivable that Prince Nayef was serving as an intermediary for
the White House. Otherwise, Washington would almost certainly
disapprove of Prince Nayef's signing a security agreement with
Tehran, since Iranian officials are identified as suspects in the
1996 bombing of the Khobar Towers in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, in which
19 American military personnel were killed.
The need for Saudi participation in winning over the SCIRI can
be explained by the anti-U.S. statements of officials other than al-
Hakim. Abu Hassan al-Haytham, a prominent and influential member of
the SCIRI's General Committee, said that neither the General
Committee nor the Central Shura Council have decided to engage in a
dialogue with Washington. He added, London's "Al-Hayah" reported on
16 April, that "the principle on which the SCIRI was established
rejects a dialog with the United States, especially in connection
with U.S. intervention in Iraq, or asking the U.S. administration to
help end the repression of the Iraqi people." Abu Hassan went on to
say that the Badr Corps, the SCIRI's military wing, "categorically"
rejects dialogue with the U.S.
It also is possible that the Saudis are serving as a kind of
diplomatic cut-out, so U.S. involvement in SCIRI activities can be
denied. Saudi involvement in supplying the Afghan Mujahedin who
fought the Soviet Union would be a model for this.
Meanwhile, Iranian intelligence officers, two Iranians with
European citizenship, and an Iranian with U.S. citizenship met with
U.S. officials in Vienna for two days, according to Paris' "Al-Watan
al-Arabi" on 13 April. Several of these individuals were involved in
the arms-for-hostages scandal of the mid-1980s. The newspaper
speculated that these meetings addressed the Shia opposition to
Saddam Husseyn and as part of a U.S. plan, the Badr Corps could serve
as the nucleus for an "Iraq Liberation Army."
Another intermediary in Washington's contacts with the SCIRI is
Iraqi National Congress leader Ahmad Chalabi. Chalabi's March visit
to Tehran reportedly failed to yield the desired results --
permission to open an INC office in Tehran and establishment of a
"safe pocket" for the opposition in southern Iraq. INC spokesman
Sharif Ali Bin Al-Hussein told Radio Free Iraq recently that the
discussions are continuing: "We are talking with Iran about opening
an office, particularly the nature of an INC representation in Iran,
and this depends on the way the INC would like to conduct its
activities on Iranian soil."
The INC also tried to persuade the SCIRI and Tehran that
Washington is serious about regime change in Baghdad. Sharif Ali
said, "So the INC tried in the Iran meetings to tell the SCIRI about
the new U.S. administration's approach to Iraq and say that it is
serious and we also relayed to the Iranian government our optimism
over this."
But a lot more persuasion is likely to be needed. Al-Hakim
refuted the early April report in a London-based Arabic daily that
described the possibility of SCIRI talks with the U.S., and he added
that the SCIRI "has nothing in common with the U.S. government." But
then he hedged in his interview with Iranian state radio's external
service on 8 April, saying that "Even if such talks are to be held,
it would only be to draw international attention towards the plight
of Iraq and the Iraqi people." (Bill Samii)
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