DATE=02/08/01

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=IRANIAN REVOLUTION AT 22 (CQ)

NUMBER=5-48957

BYLINE=ALI JALALI

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

INTERNET=YES

CONTENT=

NOT VOICED

/// EDS: FIXING GRAF 15, TO READ 'INJECTING 300-THOUSAND PEOPLE WHO CAN NOT FIND WORK'.

INTRO: This week (February 10), Iran celebrates (celebrated) the anniversary of the Islamic revolution that replaced the monarchy. The commemoration comes amid deepening ideological division in the country and widening economic woes. V-O-A's Ali Jalali looks at challenges facing Iran twenty-two years after the revolution.

TEXT: Official anniversary events include showcasing a number of Iran's recent technological achievements and inauguration of a wide range of development projects.

The first Iranian-made passenger plane (Iran-140), built with Ukrainian assistance, made its maiden flight on February 7. The government announced the launching of more than one thousand economic and cultural projects and the commissioning of locally built sophisticated weapon systems.

But, critics of the Islamic regime claim that social, political and economic problems facing the nation far outweigh the country's accomplishments. Critics say the rift between reformist and conservative factions within the government impedes economic recovery and work on social problems.

Some political observers say much of the factional division in Iran is rooted in the constitution, which requires elected bodies to share power with religious institutions. /// OPT /// For example, they say President Mohammad Khatami's executive power is stymied by the absolute authority of the supreme religious leader Ayatollah Khamenei who, along with his conservative allies, control key state institutions including the police and the courts. Similarly, Parliament's legislative power is curbed by the Guardian Council - a panel of clerics and lawyers appointed by the supreme leader to oversee the conformity of laws with Islamic principles. /// END OPT ///

Professor Edmund Herzig of University of Manchester, a leading expert on Iran, says the situation leads to friction.

// HERZIG ACT //

I think there is a constitutional predisposition to division and difference. If we look for example at legislation, on the one hand the parliament is there proposing legislation - that is an elective body. On the other hand, the Guardian Council is approving or vetting legislation and that is not an elective body. So it tends to lead to situations where ideological differences are expressed politically and can easily become strongly reinforced into day to day running of politics.

// END ACT //

The overwhelming victory of reformists in parliamentary elections last year - following their strong showing in local elections the year before - raised hopes for political and economic reforms.

However, the conservatives fought back, cracking down on pro-reform media and targeting close aides of President Khatami. /// OPT /// During the past year, the judiciary closed about two dozen reformist newspapers and journals, sent a dozen journalists to jail and sentenced an equal number of pro-reform intellectuals to stiff jail terms. /// END OPT ///

President Khatami has publicly expressed his frustration with the barriers facing his reform programs. The moderate cleric, who won a landslide election victory nearly four years ago, advocates the building of a civil society through peaceful campaign and political persuasion.

But many supporters of President Khatami question the effectiveness of compromise tactics.

Suzanne Maloney of Brookings Institution in Washington, says the conservatives' recent crackdown of President Khatami's reform movement has created a deep sense of public frustration.

// MALONEY ACT //

Clearly we are at a stage of real transition in Iran where there is some sense that the reformist movement, operated as it is by essentially certain elements of the government itself, can not move much further forward without either some cooperation from the conservatives, or moving into a full-fledged position of opposition to the government, which is of course impossible when the movement is being led by the president himself.

// END ACT //

/// OPT /// Ms. Maloney says much will depend on how the reform movement evolves following the next presidential election in June - whether it chooses to reach compromise with the conservatives or breaks with the government and moves to a position of full fledged opposition. /// END OPT ///

But despite the political frictions, Tehran-based economist Ali Rashidi believes the sheer gravity of economic challenges will force political reform.

He says the current one-point-two percent growth rate is far below the country's economic potential. The market, he says, is closed to outside investment and competition, and the economy fails to keep pace with rapid population growth which annually injects more than 300-thousand people into the job market who can not find work. As a result, he says the rate of unemployment is 17 percent, inflation is high and production is declining.

// RASHIDI ACT //

I think if political issues are settled, then economic issues could be solved much faster. And at the same time there are some hesitations on the part of the clergy on accepting certain forms of certain ideas, which are quite prevalent in the western world. For example we have to reform the banking system, we have to reform the role of the government in the economy, we have to reform the position of some of these non-governmental organizations (the Boniads - foundations affiliated with conservative forces but outside government control), which are dominating the economy.

// END ACT //

With the next presidential elections about four months away, neither political faction has yet formally named a candidate in the contest. The outcome of the poll is expected to influence the pace of reform. Analysts believe that despite President Khatami's failure to deliver on his promise for reform he still enjoys wide popular support, particularly among the Iranian youth, which constitute the majority of the electorate. (Signed)

NEB/AJ/KBK