U.S. SANCTIONS MAY END SOON. Statements by Iranian and
American officials in the days shortly before and after the
20 January U.S. presidential inauguration have renewed
expectations that the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act will not be
renewed in August 2001. Some cautious observers suggest,
however, that although ILSA may no longer exist in its
current form, some sort of selective sanctions may continue
to exist.
During his confirmation hearing on 17 January, Secretary
of State-designate Colin Powell said that the
administration's national security team would explore the
possibility of an increased dialog with Iran. One day
earlier, Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi said that
the Clinton administration's policies towards Iran had
failed, and "the transition of power in the White House has
presented an opportunity for the new administration to make
changes in the failed U.S. policies towards Iran," according
to IRNA. And on 6 January, Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Ahani
said, "The new U.S. administration...seems to be taking
effective measures to break a wall of mistrust between Tehran
and Washington."
One day after the inauguration, on 21 January, Foreign
Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Assefi suggested that actions
spoke louder than words and advised patience. He predicted,
according to "Dowran-i Imruz:" "Either the Americans continue
with their antagonistic policies or they show some
flexibility in some areas such as the sanctions. ...If the
latter is the case, then we have to study the situation, the
area which it has effected and its importance. ...Naturally,
if their action is qualitative, significant and positive the
Islamic Republic of Iran will take it into consideration."
Assefi did not say what Iran could do that would benefit the
U.S.
Geoffrey Kemp, a regional specialist with the Nixon
Center for Peace in Washington, DC, told RFE/RL: "The
business community, as well as the academic community and the
think-tank community have all done studies on unilateral
sanctions in the last few years and virtually everyone has
concluded they don't work. And that if a policy is not
effective, why keep it? Particularly if it hurts American
interests abroad." Kemp predicted, however, that the
termination of prohibitions on U.S. companies buying and
selling Iranian oil and gas and on the import of Iranian oil
to the U.S. are unlikely. Kemp pointed out that the Iranians
never reacted positively to the Clinton administration's
concessions, which led to criticism of the White House on
Capitol Hill. Kemp suggested that "there will have to be some
back-channel negotiations with the Iranians to make sure the
next time a new administration makes a gesture that there
will be some response."
Ambassador Robert Pelletreau, who served as assistant
secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs and is now a
partner in the Alfridi and Angel law firm, told RFE/RL that
renewal of ILSA is unlikely because the mood in Congress has
changed. "In the Congress now, we will find much more
questioning about the policy toward Iran and a much stronger
business group which will be speaking against continuing
unilateral sanctions. So, I would see a much more careful and
considered action than ILSA was when it comes up for renewal
in August." Pelletreau said that if the signs from Tehran are
reassuring, the Bush administration may consider relaxation
of existing trade sanctions against U.S. imports of Iranian
oil and against American companies buying and selling Iranian
oil and gas.
The first test of the White House's willingness to
impose sanctions will come up soon. The State Department is
examining Sinopec's (China Petroleum and Chemical
Corporation's) plan to invest over $150 million in deals that
include work on refineries in Tabriz and Tehran and on the
Caspian oil port facilities in Neka. In several cases over
the last few years, sanctions have been waived. But in the
words of a spokesman for North Carolina Senator Jesse Helms,
"The Chinese communist government is aiding and abetting an
Iranian terrorist state. That's not something for which
sanctions should be waived."
Many U.S. firms have technically side stepped sanctions
and the trade embargo by using foreign subsidiaries or
Iranian middlemen, the "Financial Times" reported in October,
and the U.S. government has done nothing about this. Other
activities by American companies have not been ignored. The
U.S. oil group Conoco's analysis of seismic data, through its
British subsidiary, for the National Iranian Oil Company is
being investigated by the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign
Assets Control. And the U.S. Customs Service launched an
investigation into the possibility that Mobil Corporation
illegally "swapped" oil with Iran, the "Wall Street Journal"
reported in October. (Bill Samii)
Copyright (c) 2001. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free
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