ARE RUSSIAN ADVISERS COMING?
Although several of Iran's suppliers are having
legal difficulties, Moscow appears prepared to fulfill
Tehran's arms supply desires. Arms sales were clearly
the primary objective of Russian Federation Defense
Minister Igor Sergeev's 26-28 December visit to Iran.
Signed at the same time, a little-noticed agreement to
train Iranian personnel at Russian institutions not only
guarantees that such arms sales will continue for the
foreseeable future, but it also paves the way for
Russian military advisers to come to Iran.
The composition of the Russian team, the places it
visited, and Russian statements indicate that arms sales
topped the agenda. The head of the Russian Defense
Ministry main directorate for international military
cooperation, Colonel General Leonid Ivashov, accompanied
Sergeev. The deputy general director of the State
Company for the Export of Arms and Military Equipment
(Rosoboroneksport) also made the trip, "Moscow News"
reported on 27 December. The Russian delegation visited
Iran's aerospace organization to familiarize itself with
Iran's "rocket production problems" and the weapons'
specifications, ITAR-TASS reported. The Russians also
visited Isfahan to meet representatives of the Iranian
aviation industry, according to ITAR-TASS.
Ivashov was cited by DPA news agency as saying that
the Iranian arms market potentially is worth $2 billion,
while according to "Segodnya," Ivashov sees $4 billion
earnings from the sale of arms and defense weapons
systems to Iran as "quite realistic." "Russian experts,"
meanwhile, told "Moscow News" that the Iranian market
could be worth $8 billion over the next 10 years.
"Kommersant" suggested that Russia could win up to $7
billion worth of the $25 billion Iran intends to spend
on its military.
Ivashov tried to reassure observers who think
arming Iran is a bad idea. Discussing which weapons Iran
would receive, he said that the main subject is
"defensive conventional weapons" and added that "the
question of missile technology supplies is not even
being considered," the official RIA information agency
reported on 27 December. Ivashov also was quoted as
saying that Moscow is ready to supply spare parts for
Soviet-era equipment only.
Some of the equipment Russian sources have
described is quite advanced: S-300 anti-aircraft
missiles, Moskit anti-ship complexes, Mi-17 helicopters,
and Su-25 fighter jets.
Washington, therefore, is not very impressed with
the Russian assurances. State Department spokesman
Philip Reeker said on 28 December that "it's not
sufficient for Russia to simply call this type of
equipment, quote, 'defensive.' Some of the equipment
reportedly being discussed between the Russian minister
of defense and his Iranian counterpart would pose a
serious threat. And so calling it defensive is not going
to diminish that threat." And State Department official
John Barker visited Russia earlier in the month to say
that if the arms sales occur, Washington may impose
economic sanctions on Moscow, "Izvestiya" reported on 28
December.
Direct arms sales were not the only subject under
discussion. Sergeev said that Moscow and Tehran have
agreed on the training of Iranian personnel at Russian
military schools, ITAR-TASS reported on 28 December. Not
only will the Iranians learn Russian tactics, they will
be trained on Russian equipment. So when they revise and
reformulate Iranian military doctrine, it will be done
with that equipment in mind. The new Iranian Table of
Order and Equipment will be based on Russian equipment
more than it already is, thereby increasing demand for
Russian goods. And the flow of Russian-trained officers
and Russian equipment probably will be accompanied with
Russian advisers. (Bill Samii)
RUSSIA SHIPS PARTS TO BUSHEHR.
"Iran is currently experiencing a chronic
electricity crisis," Moscow's "Segodnya" reported on 26
December, "which prompted the country's leadership to
continue building the nuclear plant." Atomash of
Volgodonsk and the Izhorsk and Podolsk Machine-Building
Plants are therefore filling orders for components of
the nuclear power plant in Bushehr. Iranian state radio
reported the next day that the shipments include atomic
filters, window covers, and domed roofs. Unnamed
officials also announced that the plant would commence
operations soon. (Bill Samii)
Copyright (c) 2001. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free
Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.
http://www.rferl.org