DATE=07/15/99 TYPE=U-S OPINION ROUNDUP NUMBER=6-11383 TITLE=TURMOIL IN IRAN BYLINE=ANDREW N. GUTHRIE TELEPHONE=619-3335 DATELINE=WASHINGTON EDITOR=ASSIGNMENTS CONTENT= INTRO: FOR ALMOST A WEEK, PRO-REFORM DEMONSTRATORS OF MOSTLY COLLEGE AND UNIVERSITY STUDENTS HAVE PARADED THROUGH THE STREETS OF TEHRAN AND SEVERAL OTHER IRANIAN CITIES, DEMANDING MORE FREEDOM. AS THE WEEK DREW TO A CLOSE, CALM RETURN, FOLLOWED BY A LARGE DEMONSTRATION IN TEHRAN, OF ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISTS SPONSORED BY THE HARD LINERS IN THE GOVERNMENT WHO OPPOSE THE POLICIES OF MORE MODERATE PRESIDENT MOHAMMAD KHATAMI. THE SITUATION IN THIS CRITICAL MIDDLE EASTERN NATION, RULED BY ISLAMIC CLERICS FOR THE PAST TWO DECADES, IS ACCORDING TO THE U-S PRESS, MUDDLED TO SAY THE LEAST. AS FOR EDITORIAL COMMENTS ON THE SITUATION, WE CALL ON _____________ FOR A SAMPLING IN TODAY'S U-S OPINION ROUNDUP. TEXT: APPARENTLY WHAT TRIGGERED THIS LATEST, AND MOST SERIOUS ROUND OF DEMONSTRATIONS SINCE THE IRANIAN REVOLUTION IN 1979 THAT OVERTHREW THE SHAH, WAS THE CLOSING BY THE GOVERNMENT OF "SALAM," A COMPARATIVELY MODERATE NEWSPAPER. STUDENTS AT TEHRAN UNIVERSITY GATHERED IN SMALL NUMBERS TO PROTEST THE CLOSING, BUT WHEN SECURITY POLICE RAIDED A UNIVERSITY DORMITORY AND BEAT STUDENTS, THE PROTESTS QUICKLY ESCALATED TO WIDESPREAD STREET DEMONSTRATIONS THAT INCLUDED MORE THAN STUDENTS. PEACE RETURNED ON WEDNESDAY [7/15] COINCIDENTALLY WITH THE PRO-HARDLINE DEMONSTRATIONS. THE U-S PRESS REACTION BEGINS WITH "NEWSDAY" ON LONG ISLAND, WHICH CAUTIONS WASHINGTON TO "WATCH AND WAIT." VOICE: IN THE CONFLICT BETWEEN POLITICAL DEMOCRATIZERS AND ISLAMIC REACTIONARIES THAT HAS ROILED IRAN FOR THE LAST WEEK, THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO DOUBT WHICH SIDE THE UNITED STATES IS ON. IT QUITE RIGHTLY SUPPORTS THE UNIVERSITY STUDENTS WHO ARE CALLING FOR GREATER PRESS FREEDOM AND MORE DEMOCRACY -- AND GETTING TEAR-GASSED AND CLUBBED IN THE STREETS AS A RESULT. THE FRUSTRATING FACT IS, THOUGH, THAT THERE IS LITTLE WASHINGTON CAN DO TO INFLUENCE THE OUTCOME IN THIS STRUGGLE, BECAUSE ITS BACKING MAY BE MORE OF A LIABILITY THAN AN ASSET. TEXT: AS "THE SUN" IN BALTIMORE SEES IT, THE STUDENTS MAY WELL HAVE MORE POWER THAN EVEN THEY REALIZE, TO INFLUENCE THE FUTURE OF THEIR COUNTRY. VOICE: THE STUDENTS DEMONSTRATING FOR THE PAST WEEK ... SUPPRESSED AND ... KILLED BY TYRANTS AFRAID OF THEM, KNOW ONLY THE EDUCATION AND GOVERNMENT PROVIDED BY THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION. ... THE SPIRITUAL LEADER AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI UNDERSTANDS HOW TRULY SUBVERSIVE THESE STUDENTS ARE, THOUGH THEY DO NOT. IF THEY COULD READ FREELY EXPRESSED CRITICISM IN NEWSPAPERS, IF LEADING CRITICS WOULD NO LONGER BE MURDERED, IF THE MOST IGNORANT YOUNG MEN OF THE COUNTRY WERE NOT SENT OUT AS MORALITY POLICE, THE REGIME MIGHT WELL BE UNDERMINED -- GRADUALLY, PEACEFULLY AND IRREVOCABLY. /// OPT /// THE STUDENT DEMONSTRATORS ARE LOYAL TO THE MODERATE BUT WEAK PRESIDENT, MOHAMMAD KHATAMI. HE IS DISLOYAL TO THEM. HIDING IN HIS PRESIDENTIAL PALACE, HE WENT ON TELEVISION ACCUSING THE DEMONSTRATORS OF 'EVIL AIMS' AND VIOLENCE. WHEN CHINESE POLICE MOWED DOWN STUDENT DEMONSTRATORS -- THE CREAM OF THE NEW GENERATION -- IN TIANANMEN SQUARE A DECADE AGO, THE REGIME DID NOT FALL. WHEN INDONESIAN TROOPS DID THE SAME TO STUDENTS IN JAKARTA MORE THAN A YEAR AGO, THAT REGIME DID FALL. /// END OPT /// KILLING STUDENTS IS A SERIOUS BUSINESS IN MOST COUNTRIES. THE SPIRITUAL LEADER OF IRAN, WHO RATHER THAN THE PRESIDENT COMMANDS THE POLICE, WOULD BE WELL ADVISED TO HOLD IT TO A MINIMUM. TEXT: FOR ITS PART, "THE WALL STREET JOURNAL" FROM NEW YORK BELIEVES THAT WHATEVER HAPPENS, GOING BACK TO THE WAY THINGS WERE IS OUT OF THE QUESTION. VOICE: THE DEMONSTRATIONS THAT HAVE ROCKED IRAN HIT DAY SIX, ONLY YESTERDAY IT WAS THE MULLAHS' TURN TO SEND THEIR SUPPORTERS INTO THE STREETS. NO MATTER. THIS MOST STRATEGIC OF COUNTRIES IS NOT LIKELY TO BE THE SAME; THESE PROTESTS ... ARE THE FIRST SUCH STREET PROTESTS TO OCCUR IN IRAN'S THEOCRATIC ISLAMIC REPUBLIC SINCE THE UNITED STATES HELPED OVERTHROW THE SHAH IN 1979. PERHAPS ANOTHER MAJOR BREAKPOINT IS IN THE AIR. ... TO HELP A LARGE AND IMPORTANT COUNTRY LIKE IRAN REJOIN THE COMMUNITY OF SERIOUS NATIONS, THE WEST SHOULD SUGGEST INTERNATIONALLY SUPERVISED ELECTIONS, WITHOUT RESTRICTIONS ON CANDIDACY. ... FREE SOCIETIES, NOT DESPERATE AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES, ARE THE BEST GUARANTORS OF STABILITY OVER THE LONG RUN. TEXT: FOR THE VIEW FROM CALIFORNIA, WE PULL UP THE CAPITOL'S "SACRAMENTO BEE" WHICH SAYS, IN PART: VOICE: VIEWED BROADLY, THIS MANIFESTATION OF YOUTHFUL FRUSTRATION -- IN A COUNTRY WHERE 65-PERCENT OF THE PEOPLE ARE UNDER 25 [EDITORS: YEARS OF AGE] -- IS A HOPEFUL SIGN THAT PRESIDENT MOHAMMAD KHATAMI HAS STRONG SUPPORT FOR HIS MODERATE REFORMIST PROGRAM AMONG THOSE WHO EMBODY THE FUTURE. BUT JUST NOW, THE DANGER IS GREAT THAT THE MULLAHS WHO WIELD REAL POWER IN IRAN WILL OVERREACT AND PROVOKE MORE VIOLENCE. ... WHAT HE [PRESIDENT KHAMENEI] DOES NEXT -- WHETHER HE CURBS THE BEHAVIOR OF POLICE AND VIGILANTES OR UNLEASHES THEM -- MAY DETERMINE WHETHER UNREST SUBSIDES OR IS FURTHER INFLAMED, CREATING A MAJOR CRISIS FOR A COUNTRY THAT ALREADY HAS THEM APLENTY. /// OPT /// IRAN'S AMORPHOUS YOUTH MOVEMENT DOES NOT SEEK TO UNDO THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION OR TO UNSEAT THE AYATOLLAHS. ALL THE PROTESTERS WANT, IN A GLOBALIZING ERA, IS TO JOIN THE MODERN WORLD AND TO ENJOY PERSONAL FREEDOMS THAT THE MULLAHS' RIGID MORAL CODE DENIES THEM. IF THEY ARE FURTHER FRUSTRATED, THEIR DEMANDS MAY GROW INTO OPPOSITION TO THE REGIME ITSELF. /// END OPT /// TEXT: "THE NEW YORK TIMES" CALLS THIS A "FATEFUL MOMENT:" VOICE: THE STUDENT PROTESTERS ARE INVOKING THE MORE DEMOCRATIC AND LIBERAL VALUES ESPOUSED BY PRESIDENT MOHAMMAD KHATAMI AND BACKED BY A SUBSTANTIAL MAJORITY OF IRANIANS, PARTICULARLY YOUNG PEOPLE AND WOMEN. IN THE LONG RUN, THESE MORE HUMANE VALUES ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL. ... BUT THE IMMEDIATE COURSE OF EVENTS WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER THE CLERICAL AUTHORITIES LED BY AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI UNDERSTAND THAT THEY MUST RELAX THEIR STRANGLEHOLD ON IRANIAN SOCIETY. TEXT: ECHOING THOSE VIEWS, "THE ORLANDO [FLORIDA] SENTINEL" ADDS: VOICE: IF IT TRULY WISHES TO GET ALONG WITH OTHERS AND IMPROVE ITS TIES TO THE WORLD, IRAN MUST FIRST LISTEN TO ITS OWN PEOPLE. PUNISHING PROTESTERS FOR CHAMPIONING THE VERY PRINCIPLES A MAJORITY SUPPORTS WILL LEAD TO FAILURE AND ISOLATION. TEXT: "THE PITTSBURGH [PENNSYLVANIA] POST-GAZETTE" SUGGESTS: VOICE: IRAN, LONG BEFORE ITS DESCENT INTO FUNDAMENTALIST MADNESS, WAS A NATION SUSTAINED BY A HISTORY OF EDUCATION, CULTURE AND REFINEMENT. THE MEDIEVAL ISLAMIC YOKE THAT ITS PEOPLE EMBRACED 20-YEARS AGO IS BOUND TO CHAFE IN A MODERN WORLD OF INSTANT COMMUNICATIONS AND GLOBAL AWARENESS. THE OUTBREAK AT TEHRAN UNIVERSITY IS BUT A SIGN OF THE STRAIN. BLAMING THE UNITED STATES AS USUAL WILL SUCCEED ONLY WITH THE MOST IGNORANT SECTIONS OF THE POPULATION. ... SOME IRANIANS HAVE BEGUN TO REALIZE THAT THE 'GREAT SATAN' LIVES AT HOME. TEXT: FINALLY, AN IRANIAN EXILE IN NEW ENGLAND, WRITES THIS EDITORIAL COMMENT IN "THE BOSTON GLOBE" SUGGESTING PRESIDENT KHATAMI IS NOT AS MODERATE AS THE UNITED STATES IS PORTRAYING HIM, AND THAT, IN FACT, THE "U-S IS SIDING WITH THE WRONG LEADER IN IRAN": VOICE: [MR.] KHATAMI'S INABILITY TO TRANSFORM IRAN INTO A DEMOCRATIC STATE ORIGINATES FROM HIS FIRM COMMITMENT TO 'VELAYAT-EFAQIH,' OR ABSOLUTE CLERICAL RULE. ... [HIS] CLAIM OF MODERATION IS A DECEPTION DESIGNED TO ERASE TWO DECADES OF SYSTEMATIC INHUMANE TREATMENT OF A PROUD NATION. IRAN'S POLITICAL LANDSCAPE DOES NOT FAVOR A REPEAT OF PREVIOUS MISGUIDED POLICIES BY THE WEST. IRAN WILL NEVER BE AN 'ISLAND OF STABILITY' AS LONG AS THE MULLAHS RULE IT. /// END OPT /// TEXT: THAT CONCLUDES THIS SAMPLING OF U-S PRESS COMMENT ON THIS WEEK'S RIOTING IN IRAN. NEB/ANG/RAE 15-Jul-99 1:50 PM EDT (1750 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .