DATE=7/13/99
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-43862
TITLE=IRAN UNREST
BYLINE=LAURIE KASSMAN
DATELINE=LONDON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT: 

INTRO:  CLASHES BETWEEN PRO-REFORM PROTESTERS AND SECURITY POLICE
ERUPTED IN IRAN FOR A SIXTH DAY TUESDAY, DESPITE A BAN ON PUBLIC 
DEMONSTRATIONS.  THE STUDENT PROTESTS WERE SPARKED BY NEW 
RESTRICTIONS ON PRESS FREEDOM AND THE CLOSURE LAST WEEK OF A 
LEADING LIBERAL IRANIAN NEWSPAPER.   BUT THE PROTEST SPREAD AFTER
A POLICE ASSAULT ON TEHRAN UNIVERSITY KILLED ONE AND INJURED 
DOZENS OF STUDENTS.  AS THE VIOLENCE SPREAD BEYOND TEHRAN, 
CORRESPONDENT LAURIE KASSMAN TAKES A LOOK AT THE POSSIBLE 
CONSEQUENCES OF THE STUDENT PROTESTS.

TEXT:  THE BOLDNESS AND FEROCITY OF THE STUDENT PROTEST IS BEING 
COMPARED TO THE 1979 ISLAMIC REVOLUTION THAT TOPPLED SHAH REZA 
PAHLEVI.    

TEHRAN UNIVERSITY PROFESSOR SADEGH ZIBAKALAM SAYS THE SCALE AND 
STRENGTH OF THE DEMONSTRATIONS ARE SENDING A SERIOUS MESSAGE TO 
IRAN'S LEADERS.

                      /// ZIBAKALAM ACT ///

         I THINK IF THERE AREN'T ANY OTHER MESSAGES FROM THIS, 
         THERE IS ONE SINGLE MESSAGE:  THAT IS, AS FAR AS 
         POLITICAL REFORM IS CONCERNED, EVERYTHING IS NOT OKAY 
         AND YOUTH AND STUDENTS HAVE BEEN EXPECTING FAR MORE FROM
         PRESIDENT KHATAMI THAN HE HAS BEEN ABLE TO DELIVER 
         DURING THE PAST TWO YEARS.  THAT MESSAGE IS QUITE CLEAR.

                         /// END ACT ///

BOTH REFORMIST AND CONSERVATIVE FACTIONS IN IRAN'S GOVERNMENT ARE
PAINFULLY AWARE OF THE POLITICAL POWER OF THE COUNTRY'S YOUTH.  
MORE THAN HALF THE POPULATION OF 60-MILLION IS UNDER THE AGE OF 
20.  IT WAS THE SUPPORT OF IRAN'S YOUTH AND WOMEN THAT HELPED PUT
MR. KHATAMI IN OFFICE

MOST ANALYSTS SAY IRAN'S YOUTHFUL VOTERS STILL ARE WILLING TO 
GIVE THE PRESIDENT MORE TIME TO CARRY OUT HIS PROMISED POLITICAL 
AND SOCIAL REFORMS.  THEY ARE AWARE OF HIS STRUGGLE WITH 
CONSERVATIVES OPPOSING THE REFORMS.   BUT PROFESSOR ZIBAKALAM 
SAYS THE STUDENTS' INFLUENCE CANNOT BE IGNORED.

                  /// SECOND ZIBAKALAM ACT /// 

         I THINK THE AUTHORITIES WOULD UNDOUBTEDLY GET THE UPPER 
         HAND -- AND THE STREETS OF TEHRAN WILL BE QUIET WITHIN 
         THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  BUT THE REAL PROBLEM IS HOW TO 
         TACKLE THE YOUTH AND STUDENTS.  AND WHAT THEY WANT IS 
         SOMETHING THAT WILL NOT DISAPPEAR AND WON'T GO AWAY.  
         //OPT//  IT IS SOMETHING THE IRANIAN LEADERS -- 
         MODERATES AND CONSERVATIVES -- HAVE TO CONFRONT AND 
         RESPOND IN THE MONTHS TO COME ONE WAY OR ANOTHER. //END 
         OPT//

                         /// END ACT ///

A LIKELY DEADLINE FOR THE RESPONSE IS IRAN'S PARLIAMENTARY 
ELECTIONS, SET FOR NEXT FEBRUARY.

IRAN ANALYST GEORGE JOFFE OF LONDON'S ROYAL INSTITUTE OF 
INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS SAYS BOTH SIDES ARE ALREADY TRYING TO 
POSITION THEMSELVES FOR THOSE ELECTIONS.  

                        /// JOFFE ACT ///

         THE FEBRUARY ELECTIONS ARE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT. DON'T 
         FORGET THAT EARLIER THIS YEAR THERE WERE ELECTIONS FOR 
         MUNICIPALITIES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN WHICH THE MODERATES
         WON RESOUNDINGLY.  AND THE CONSERVATIVES, DESPITE 
         SERIOUS MACHINATIONS TO INTERFERE WITH THE ELECTORAL 
         PROCESS, WERE SEVERELY DISCOMFORTED.

                         /// END ACT ///

THE CONSERVATIVES CANNOT AFFORD TO LOSE CONTROL OF THE 
PARLIAMENT, IF THEY WANT TO STOP THE REFORMS THEY SEE DESTROYING 
PRINCIPLES OF THE 1979 ISLAMIC REVOLUTION. 

//OPT// PROFESSOR ZIBAKALAM SAYS MODERATE STUDENT LEADERS HAVE 
APPEALED FOR CALM TO AVOID PROVOKING A WIDER SECURITY CRACKDOWN.

                  ///  THIRD ZIBAKALAM ACT ///

         ONE OF THE REASONS WHY THE MORE MODERATE STUDENTS WERE 
         CALLING IT A DAY (STOPPING THEIR PROTEST) YESTERDAY OR 
         LAST NIGHT WAS THE FACT THEY WERE A BIT SKEPTICAL AND 
         FRIGHTENED THAT THE WHOLE THING MIGHT PLAY INTO THE 
         HANDS OF THE HARD-LINERS, RATHER THAN GAINING AND 
         IMPROVING ON THE HUMAN RIGHTS SITUATION IN IRAN AND 
         POLITICAL REFORM THAT PRESIDENT KHATAMI HAS EMBARKED 
         UPON DURING THE PAST TWO YEARS. 

                         /// END ACT ///

THE SECURITY CRACKDOWN HAS BROUGHT BOTH CRITICISM FROM FOREIGN 
GOVERNMENTS AND RENEWED INTERNATIONAL SUPPORT FOR PRESIDENT 
KHATAMI'S REFORM EFFORTS. //END OPT//

IRAN WATCHERS OUTSIDE THE COUNTRY SUGGEST THE STUDENT PROTESTS 
SHOW THAT THE REFORM MOVEMENT SPEARHEADED BY PRESIDENT KHATAMI IS
IRREVERSIBLE.  BUT THE CLASHES ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE HEATED BATTLE 
BETWEEN REFORMISTS AND CONSERVATIVES TO CONTROL IRAN'S POLITICAL 
FUTURE.  (SIGNED)

NEB/LMK/PCF



13-Jul-99 12:43 PM EDT (1643 UTC)
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Source: Voice of America
.