DATE=2/5/99 TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT NUMBER=5-42526 TITLE=IRANIAN REVOLUTION AT 20: STRUGGLE FOR CHANGE BYLINE=ALI JALALI DATELINE=WASHINGTON CONTENT= NOT VOICED: INTRO: IRAN THIS MONTH (FEB 11) IS CELEBRATING THE TWENTIETH ANNIVERSARY OF THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION THAT OVERTHREW THE PRO-WESTERN GOVERNMENT OF SHAH MOHAMMAD RAZA PAHLAVI. THE CELEBRATION COMES AMID GROWING POPULAR DEMAND FOR CHANGE AND A DEEPENING RIFT BETWEEN RIVAL FACTIONS IN THE RULING CLERGY OVER POLICY ISSUES. (IN THIS FIRST OF A THREE-PART SERIES) V-O-A'S ALI JALALI REVIEWS THE CHANGING PERCEPTIONS ABOUT THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION AS IT ENTERS ITS THIRD DECADE. TEXT: MANY PEOPLE OF MANY DIVERSE POLITICAL BACKGROUNDS WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE IRANIAN REVOLUTION. WHAT UNITED THEM WAS THEIR STRONG OPPOSITION TO THE SHAH'S AUTHORITARIAN RULE AS WELL WHAT THEY VIEWED AS FOREIGN INTERFERENCE IN THEIR COUNTRY. IT WAS AFTER THE SHAH'S OUSTER THAT A MILITANT ISLAMIC IDEOLOGY, UNDER AYATOLLAH ROHULLAH KHOMEINI, TOOK CONTROL OF THE COUNTRY. AYATOLLAH KHOMEINI LED THE REVOLUTION TO VICTORY ON FEBRUARY 11, 1979, ONLY DAYS AFTER HE HAD RETURNED TO THE COUNTRY AFTER YEARS OF EXILE IN PARIS. IN THE BEGINNING OF HIS RULE, THE AYATOLLAH WAS ABLE TO REPRESENT BOTH THE SPIRITUAL AND POLITICAL SIDES OF THE REVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENT. HOWEVER, IN TIME THE UNITY OF THE FORCES BEHIND THE REVOLUTION BEGAN TO CRUMBLE. ABOLHASSAN BANI-SADR, THE FIRST PRESIDENT OF THE POST-REVOLUTIONARY IRAN, SAYS, DIFFERENCES STARTED TO SURFACE WHEN THE RULING CLERGY FAILED TO LIVE UP TO WHAT MR. BANI SADR CALLS THE "GUIDING CONCEPT" OF THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION. // BANI-SADR FARSI ACT -- FADE UNDER // THIS "GUIDING CONCEPT," HE SAYS, WAS BASED ON FOUR PRINCIPLES. THESE, HE SAYS, WERE INDEPENDENCE, LIBERTY, DEVELOPMENT, AND ISLAM IN CONFORMITY WITH THE OTHER THREE UNDERLYING PRINCIPLES. MR. BANI-SADR, WHO HAS LIVED IN EXILE IN PARIS SINCE 1981, SAYS IT WAS THE ALL-INCLUSIVE NATURE OF THE CONCEPT THAT ENABLED PEOPLE OF VARYING POLITICAL ORIENTATIONS TO PARTICIPATE IN THE UNITED FRONT THAT STAGED THE REVOLUTION. // BANI-SADR FARSI ACT -- FADE UNDER // BUT, MR. BANI-SADR SAYS, THE INITIAL CONSENSUS SOON DEGENERATED INTO FACTIONAL DISPUTES OVER THE UNDERLYING PRINCIPLES OF THE NEW POLITICAL SYSTEM AND DISPUTES OVER DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN POLICIES. EVEN IN THE FIRST YEAR OF THE REVOLUTION, HE SAYS, IRANIANS WERE FAR FROM UNANIMOUS IN THEIR SUPPORT OF KHOMEINI GOVERNMENT. IN THE FIRST PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN 1980, HE SAYS, NINETY SIX PERCENT OF THE VOTES WENT TO CANDIDATES WHO WERE OPPOSED TO A THEOCRATIC SYSTEM. TO CONSOLIDATE THEIR POWER, THE KHOMEINI FORCES CREATED AN ISLAMIC CONSTITUTION THAT STRUCTURED THE STATE ON THE BASIS OF THE PRINCIPLE OF VELAYAT-E FAQIH -- RULE BY JURISPRUDENCE -- WHICH VESTED THE FINAL AUTHORITY IN THE HANDS OF THE RELIGIOUS LEADER. UNDER THIS SYSTEM, THE CLERICAL ELITE GOVERNED THE COUNTRY RATHER THAN THE POPULARLY ELECTED LEADERS. THIS SYSTEM, WHICH EMPHASIZES THE CITIZENS' OBLIGATIONS UNDER ISLAM RATHER THAN THEIR RIGHTS TO CIVIL LIBERTIES, HAS BEEN CONTINUOUSLY CHALLENGED BY LIBERALS AND MODERATE CLERGY. IN ITS HANDLING OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS, THE REVOLUTIONARY GOVERNMENT REJECTED WESTERN INFLUENCES AND TOOK A HOSTILE POSTURE AGAINST THE UNITED STATES, WHICH IT BLAMED FOR INTERFERENCE IN IRAN DURING THE SHAH'S RULE. PROFESSOR HOUSHANG AMIRAHAMADI OF RUTGERS UNIVERSITY SAYS THE POLICIES ADOPTED BY THE IRANIAN REVOLUTIONARIES CLASHED WITH DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL REALITIES. // AMIRAHAMADI ACT // REVOLUTIONARIES ARE DREAMERS AND THEY ALWAYS COME WITH A UTOPIA IN MIND AND THEN THE REALITY SETS IN AND THEY INCREASINGLY COMPROMISE UNTIL THEY LARGELY GO BACK TO SQUARE ONE (THE BEGINNING). AND THAT'S ALMOST SOMETHING THAT HAS HAPPENED IN IRAN ECONOMICALLY SPEAKING, ALTHOUGH THAT THE SQUARE ONE IS MORE IDEOLOGICAL AS OPPOSED TO MATERIAL. // END ACT // FOLLOWING THE DEATH OF AYATOLLAH KHOMEINI IN 1989, THE MOUNTING SOCIAL, POLITICAL, AND ECONOMIC PROBLEMS AT HOME AND THE REALITIES OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS BLUNTED IRAN'S REVOLUTIONARY MOOD. THE MOVEMENT FOR CHANGE STRONGLY ASSERTED ITSELF IN MAY 1997 WITH THE LANDSLIDE ELECTION OF THE MODERATE PRESIDENT MOHAMMAD KHATAMI ON A REFORM MANDATE. PROFESSOR RUHOLLAH RAMAZANI OF THE UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA CALLS THE 1997 ELECTION A TURNING POINT IN IRAN'S HISTORY. HE SAYS IT WAS IN STARK CONTRAST WITH PREVIOUS REVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENTS IN IRAN, INCLUDING THE INITIAL PHASE OF THE ISLAMIC REVOLUTION OF 1979, WHERE THE QUEST FOR INDEPENDENCE FROM FOREIGN DOMINANCE OVERSHADOWED THE DEMANDS FOR CIVIL LIBERTIES AT HOME. // RAMAZANI ACT // I BELIEVE THAT THE PRESIDENCY OF SAYED MOHAMMAD KHATAMI MARKS THE FIRST INSTANCE IN IRANIAN HISTORY WHEN A POPULARLY ELECTED LEADER IS TRYING TO REDRESS THE HISTORICAL IMBALANCE OF PRIORITIES IN THE POLITICAL PROCESS BETWEEN THE PRINCIPLES OF INDEPENDENCE FROM FOREIGN DOMINATION AND DOMESTIC WANT OF FREEDOM. THE REASON FOR THIS IS UNPRECEDENTED SHIFT, OR POTENTIAL SHIFT, IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND. // END OF ACT // HE SAYS THE MOVEMENT FOR CHANGE UNDER PRESIDENT KHATAMI PROMOTES LIBERTY AT HOME AND PEACE ABROAD, A NOTION HE DESCRIBES AS THE "DEMOCRATIC PEACE." HOWEVER, DESPITE HIS COMMITMENT TO DEMOCRATIC CHANGES, IRANIAN ANALYSTS SAY PRESIDENT KHATAMI LACKS THE POWER TO GET THEM ADOPTED. HE IS CRIPPLED BY A SYSTEM WHERE THE PRESIDENT HOLDS THE TOP ELECTED POST BUT NOT THE HIGHEST EXECUTIVE POWER. HE LACKS THE AUTHORITY OF THE SUPREME RELIGIOUS LEADER, AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI, WHO ALONG WITH HIS CONSERVATIVE ALLIES CONTROLS MOST OF THE LEVERS OF POWER, INCLUDING THE PARLIAMENT, THE JUDICIARY, THE ARMY AND THE SECURITY FORCES. WATCHERS OF IRANIAN POLITICAL SCENE BELIEVE THAT THE FUTURE OF IRAN WILL BE DECIDED BY THE OUTCOME OF THE ONGOING TUG-OF-WAR BETWEEN THE MODERATES, ARRAYED BEHIND THE PRESIDENT, AND THE CONSERVATIVES WHO CONTROL THE STATE INSTITUTIONS. A LEADING BRITISH EXPERT ON IRAN, PROFESSOR EDMUND HERZIG OF UNIVERSITY OF MANCHESTER, SAYS THERE ARE TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR IRAN. // HERZIG ACT // FIRST OF ALL THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF GROWING POLARIZATION, THAT THE REFORMIST WING AND THE CONSERVATIVE WING COULD BECOME MORE DEEPLY SPLIT AND YOU CAN GET A REAL RIFT OR SCHISM OPENING UP WITHIN THE REGIME BETWEEN THE CONSERVATIVE AND THE REFORMIST FORCES. ON THE OTHER HAND, THERE IS ANOTHER SCENARIO WHICH IS THE NEED TO KEEP THE REGIME TOGETHER AND THE NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME KIND OF UNITED FRONT STRONG ENOUGH TO PERSUADE THE MODERATES ON BOTH WINGS TO TRY TO FORM SOME KIND OF COALITION OR ALLIANCE TO COME TOGETHER IN THE CENTER OF IRANIAN POLITICS AND TO MARGINALIZE THE MORE EXTREME ELEMENTS OR RADICAL ELEMENTS ON BOTH WINGS. // END ACT // MR. HERZIG BELIEVES THAT THE SECOND SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL. ANALYSTS SAY LOCAL ELECTIONS SCHEDULED FOR LATER THIS MONTH (FEB 26) AND NEXT YEAR'S ELECTIONS TO THE MAJLIS, OR PARLIAMENT, MAY HELP BREAK IRAN'S POLITICAL DEADLOCK, BUT THEY ALSO SAY ANY CHANGE IN IRAN'S SITUATION IS GOING TO BE SLOW AND INCREMENTAL. (SIGNED) NEB/AJ/KL 05-Feb-99 4:33 PM EST (2133 UTC) NNNN Source: Voice of America .