DATE=8/6/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-41095
TITLE=KHATAMI ANNIVERSARY -- P 4: U-S - IRAN RELATIONS
BYLINE=ALI JALALI
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
NOT VOICED: 

INTRO:  AUGUST 3RD MARKED THE FIRST ANNIVERSARY OF IRANIAN 
PRESIDENT MOHAMMAD KHATAMI'S PRESIDENCY.  AMONG THE HIGHLIGHTS OF
MR. KHATAMI'S FIRST YEAR IN OFFICE WERE THE CONCILIATORY GESTURES
HIS GOVERNMENT MADE TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE.  HOWEVER, NO MAJOR 
IMPROVEMENT IN BI-LATERAL RELATIONS HAS BEEN ACHIEVED SO FAR.  
(IN THIS LAST OF A FOUR-PART SERIES) V-O-A'S ALI JALALI EXAMINES 
PROSPECTS FOR U-S-IRAN RELATIONSHIP. 

TEXT:  HOPES FOR A THAW IN RELATIONS BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES 
AND IRAN SOARED ABOUT SIX MONTHS AGO, WHEN PRESIDENT CLINTON 
REACTED POSITIVELY TO CALLS FROM PRESIDENT MOHAMMAD KHATAMI FOR A
DIALOGUE WITH THE AMERICAN PEOPLE. 

HOWEVER, THE INITIAL EUPHORIA DIDN'T LAST LONG.  FACED WITH STIFF
OPPOSITION FROM HARDLINE CONSERVATIVES, WHO CONTROL MOST OF THE 
POWER CENTERS IN IRAN, PRESIDENT KHATAMI SLOWED DOWN THE MOVEMENT
FOR AN OPENING UP TO THE UNITED STATES.  

WHILE THE TWO COUNTRIES ENGAGED IN A SERIES OF ACADEMIC AND 
ATHLETIC EXCHANGES, OTHER DEVELOPMENTS SERVED TO INCREASE 
TENSIONS BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES, INCLUDING TEHRAN'S TESTING OF
A MEDIUM-RANGE MISSILE CONSIDERED TO BE A THREAT TO U-S ALLIES IN
THE REGION.

IRAN RESPONDED COOLLY TO STATEMENTS IN JUNE BY PRESIDENT CLINTON 
AND  SECRETARY OF STATE MADELEINE ALBRIGHT CALLING FOR A GENUINE 
RECONCILIATION WITH THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC AND A RETURN TO NORMAL 
RELATIONS.  THESE DEVELOPMENTS, SAYS PROFESSOR YERVAND ABRAHAMIAN
OF BARUCH COLLEGE IN NEW YORK, MARK A SETBACK IN THE PROCESS OF 
OPENING A DIALOGUE BETWEEN THE TWO NATIONS.

                      // ABRAHAMIAN ACT //

 I DON'T THINK AT THE PRESENT THERE IS MUCH PROSPECT (FOR 
RECONCILIATION).  I THINK THE ATMOSPHERE HAS (GOTTEN) BETTER WITH
THE LESS RHETORIC, LESS ATTACKS IN THE MEDIA, IN FACT EVEN TALKS 
ACROSS THE CNN AND CONVERSATIONS, BUT IN TERMS OF CONCRETE 
MEASURES I DON'T SEE MUCH HAPPENING, OR HAPPENING IN THE FUTURE.

                          // END ACT //

BUT SEVERAL AMERICAN EXPERTS WHO VISITED IRAN THIS YEAR AGREE 
THAT, AMONG THE RULING ELITES IN TEHRAN, THE POLITICAL WILL STILL
EXISTS FOR OPENING A DIALOGUE WITH THE UNITED STATES.  PROFESSOR 
HOSHANG AMIR-AHMADI OF RUTGERS UNIVERSITY IN NEW JERSEY IS ONE OF
THOSE WHO HAS VISITED RECENTLY.  HE SAYS THE ABSENCE OF A CLEAR 
AND COHESIVE POLICY ON THE PART OF BOTH COUNTRIES REDUCES THE 
RECONCILIATION PROCESS TO SPONTANEOUS ACTIONS.  WHAT BOTH 
COUNTRIES NEED, HE SAYS, IS A CONSISTENT, WELL THOUGHT-OUT 
POLICY.

                      // AMIR-AHMADI ACT //

 BOTH GOVERNMENTS ... HAVE DEVELOPED A REACTIVE POLICY TOWARD 
EACH OTHER AS OPPOSED TO A PROACTIVE (POLICY), AND THEREFORE ON 
NEITHER SIDE YOU HAVE A POLICY THAT IS COHERENT, THAT HAS A 
BEGINNING AND AN END FOR THE STATE OF AFFAIRS IN MIND, NOR STAGES
IN THE MIDDLE.  IT IS A POLICY THAT TAKES WHATEVER THAT COMES IN 
AND TRIES TO MAKE THAT INTO SOMETHING AND JUMPS ON ANY 
DEVELOPMENT THAT COMES AROUND AND MAKES IT TO STAND FOR A MEASURE
OF SOMETHING.

                          // END ACT //

AMBASSADOR ROSCOE SUDDARTH, PRESIDENT OF THE MIDDLE EAST 
INSTITUTE IN WASHINGTON, WAS ONE OF THE U-S FOREIGN POLICY 
EXPERTS WHO VISITED TEHRAN IN FEBRUARY AS PART OF AN UNOFFICIAL 
EXCHANGE BETWEEN THE TWO NATIONS.  HE SAYS DISAGREEMENTS IN BOTH 
COUNTRIES OVER THE CONDITIONS FOR RESUMING NORMAL TIES  HINDER 
THE CHANCES FOR DIALOGUE.  AMBASSADOR SUDDARTH SAYS BOTH SIDES 
NEED TO MAKE SOME CHANGES.

                        // SUDDARTH ACT//

 I THINK ON THE IRANIAN SIDE THERE HAS TO BE SOME KIND OF 
CONSENSUS BETWEEN PRESIDENT KHATAMI AND THE SUPREME LEADER AND 
THE OTHERS ABOUT THE DESIRABILITY OF REALLY PUSHING FOR BETTER 
TIES WITH THE UNITED STATES.  I THINK ON THE U-S SIDE THERE WON'T
BE ANYTHING TILL NOVEMBER BECAUSE OF THE ELECTIONS AND IRAN IS 
JUST NOT A POPULAR ISSUE FOR CONGRESSMEN TO FACE THEIR OPPONENTS.

                          // END ACT //

WESTERN ANALYSTS NOTE THAT SUPPORT FOR IMPROVEMENT OF BI-LATERAL 
TIES IN BOTH NATIONS COME FROM DIFFERENT CONSTITUENCIES.  IN IRAN
THE SUPPORT MOSTLY COMES FROM THE PUBLIC, AND IN THE UNITED 
STATES, FROM THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH.  PROFESSOR AMIR-AHMADI SAYS, 
THIS HAS TO BE CHANGED.  HE SUGGESTS THAT THE CLINTON 
ADMINISTRATION SHOULD GET THE U-S CONGRESS AND IRANIAN PARLIAMENT
(MAJLIS) INVOLVED IN THE RECONCILIATION EFFORTS.  HE SAYS IT IS 
IMPORTANT THAT THE UNITED STATES TRY TO INCLUDE IRANIAN 
CONSERVATIVES IN THE RECONCILIATION EFFORTS. 

                      // AMIR-AHMADI ACT //

 THESE ARE THE PEOPLE THAT AMERICAN GOVERNMENT HAS LABELED 
CONSERVATIVES, FUNDAMENTALISTS, ANTI-AMERICAN, AND AS A RESULT 
HAVE CLOSED THE DOOR BEFORE STARTING ANYTHING WITH THEM FOR ANY 
RAPPROCHEMENT.  SO I BELIEVE THAT THIS PARTICULAR PROBLEM, OR 
THIS PARTICULAR APPROACH HAS TO BE CORRECTED BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT
MOVEMENT TOWARD A POLITICAL DIALOGUE BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES 
CAN BEGIN.

                          // END ACT //

OTHER WESTERN ANALYSTS SUGGEST THAT THE CONSERVATIVE FACTIONS IN 
IRAN SHOULD ALSO VOICE SOME SUPPORT FOR DIALOGUE WITH THE UNITED 
STATES.  

LOOKING AHEAD, WATCHERS OF IRANIAN POLITICS EMPHASIZE THAT 
WASHINGTON MAY NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE DOMESTIC 
POLITICS OF IRAN IN SHAPING THE U-S POLICY. ASSUMING THAT 
PRESIDENT KHATAMI IS NOT POLITICALLY ABLE TO TAKE FURTHER STEPS, 
THE ANALYSTS CALL FOR SOME SPECIFIC ACTIONS BY THE UNITED STATES 
TO PAVE THE WAY FOR MORE TANGIBLE RESULTS IN RECONCILIATION 
EFFORTS. (SIGNED)

NEB/AJ/KL

06-Aug-98 11:20 AM EDT (1520 UTC)
NNNN

Source: Voice of America
.