Index

Tuesday, January 23, 2001

Analysis:
New administration prompts speculation about U.S. policy toward N. Korea

By Jim Lea
Osan bureau chief

George W. Bush and Richard Cheney are in control.

Colin Powell and Donald Rumsfeld are the new U.S. heads of state and defense, respectively.

Now the big question in Seoul is: Will the new, more conservative administration toughen U.S. policy toward North Korea?

Since the U.S. presidential election, South Korean President Kim Dae-jung frequently has said that he is confident the Bush administration will stay the course. Kim said he believes his "Sunshine Policy" of engagement, not confrontation, is the only policy that will lead to better relations with the North, a permanent peace on the peninsula and eventual unification of the two Koreas.

In his confirmation hearings, Powell talked tough, calling North Korean leader Kim Jong Il a "dictator (who) continues to field far more conventional military force than any conceivable sense of self defense should warrant and develops missiles and unconventional weapons."

Powell said Washington is "open to a continued process of engagement" with Pyongyang as long as that process is based on reciprocity "and does not come at the expense of our alliance relationships."

Shortly after Powell was confirmed, he spoke with Foreign Minister Lee Joung-binn and agreed the two sides should hold close consultations to coordinate policy toward North Korea, a spokesman for the Foreign Affairs and Trade Ministry in Seoul said.

In his inaugural address Saturday, Bush also made comments that could be viewed as a warning to the North.

"We will confront weapons of mass destruction so that a new century is spared new horrors," he said. "The enemies of liberty and our country should make no mistake ... America remains engaged in the world by history and by choice, shaping a balance of power that favors freedom."

Weapons of mass destruction are a central stumbling block in relations between Washington and Pyongyang. Attempts by the Clinton administration to dissuade the North from developing and proliferating missiles had little success. There is lingering suspicion that Pyongyang still may be involved in clandestine development of nuclear weapons.

Conservative South Korean politicians criticized Clinton's policy toward the North, calling it inconsistent and conciliatory.

An official of the Unification Ministry in Seoul, which handles North Korean issues, said American pressure on the North to stop development and proliferation of missiles probably will increase. That, he said, could mean trouble.

"It will lead to friction between Washington and Pyongyang," he said. "That could hurt South-North relations and, consequently, U.S.-South Korean relations," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Gerald Lee, chairman of a conservative think tank with offices in Seoul and Washington, said he believes the new U.S. administration will harden its policy toward the North. The Kim administration in the South must adapt to the changes quickly.

"The Bush administration will not put up with as much from North Korea as the Clinton administration did," said Lee, who heads the Foundation for National Strategy and Cultural Studies. "President Kim still is surrounded by liberals and is following a liberal path. He believes he knows North Korea better than anyone else and his ideas on dealing with Pyongyang are the only choice available.

"But Vice President Cheney and Secretary Powell have dealt with the North before and have their own ideas about what's best," he said.

South Korea "does not have the power militarily or economically to go its own way. Kim must understand that and will have to follow America's lead," he said.

Bae Gi-chul contributed to this report.